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kacexbt
421 posts
Time to start scaling into a short
kacexbt@kacexbt
Without a quick regime shift, things could keep getting worse. BTC looks more stable, ETH not so much
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Without a quick regime shift, things could keep getting worse. BTC looks more stable, ETH not so much
kacexbt@kacexbt
🫠
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It’s not just about stops, it’s about crowd behavior.
Liquidity clusters exist because most traders act the same way around the same levels.
Tight hard stops often make it even easier, they tend to sit exactly where everyone expects them to be.
But that changes with market conditions and positioning (who’s trapped: longs or shorts).
Edge = reading the crowd, not just hiding from it.
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A hard SL makes your position visible in the orderbooks.
They want traders to rely on hard stops because it publicly reveals where your invalidation level sits, data that algos and MMs can use.
They frame trading without hard stops as reckless or poor risk management, but that isn’t necessarily true.
You can still manage risk by manually closing the trade once your thesis is invalidated, without exposing your exit level to the market in advance.
You should know by now that @binance has access to users positions and trading data. There are levels to this game.
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And market structure backs it up. BTC liq delta on Hyperliquid (±20% range): -116M, massively short-heavy.
Meaning there's way more shorts to liquidate above than longs to liquidate below. If price goes up, -116M in shorts get wrecked, fueling the squeeze. If price drops, there's barely anything left to flush downside.
Path of least resistance is clearly up, not 60K.
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Gonna disagree here.
We just tagged the weekly 200MA, one of the strongest long-term supports on BTC. Combined with the 60K retest, that's a psychological and technical floor hit at the same time.
On the cycle argument: previous cycles swept the prior low because nobody saw it coming. People bought too early, got liquidated, and that's literally what pushed price lower. Now? Everyone is waiting for the 60K sweep. Your post is proof. Traders are cautious, sitting in cash. There's no one left to liquidate down there.
And to actually break 60K you'd need a real catalyst, a destructive news event. We don't have one. Liquidity is thin, weak hands are already gone. The wealth transfer already happened over the last few years, and it wasn't the naive bulls who got wrecked this time.
Patterns repeat until everyone sees them. Then they stop working.
Killa@KillaXBT
$BTC I absolutely refuse to believe that $BTC bottomed at $60K. Purely based on cycles, math, historical price action. Every bear cycle has revisited/swept its previous low before pushing higher which means sweeping 60K within the next few months is still very plausible based on historical data. Do I believe this time is different? No. The same people who thought that at 120K ended up rekt. So Im going to stick with history & History shows that bottoming within 123 days is absurd. I nailed a full year of PA by studying history, not by forcing skeptical theses that ignored it. Markets leave patterns. This is the relief bounce to get people to question whether the bottom is in or not.
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@ositoninja1 @ThomaslePrusse Vantage et VT je ferais quelques positions sur HL en live et j’expliquerai pourquoi je n’aime pas (le plus important c’est que vous voyez que c’est du « vrai argent » et que je ne cache ni le wallet ni le compte de trading
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MM ratio at 2.18. Start long
kacexbt@kacexbt
It looks like market makers are about to liquidate every short position in the market!
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It looks like market makers are about to liquidate every short position in the market!
kacexbt@kacexbt
MM ratio at 0.972. Stop short
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MM ratio at 0.972. Stop short
kacexbt@kacexbt
MM ratio at 0.449. Time to start scaling into a short
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