alterseny

Over time, we’ve all kind of accepted this idea that the law of diminishing returns applies to crypto. Each cycle smaller. Each move less explosive. Each top less euphoric. And to be fair… up until now, that’s looked true. But I want to challenge that. Because when I look at this cycle, I don’t see an expansionary phase. I don’t see euphoria. I don’t see the type of volatility expansion that has historically marked a true Bitcoin blow-off move. If you go and look at the monthly chart for Bitcoin, specifically the Bollinger Bands and the RSI, there’s something very clear. Historically, we’ve had multiple periods of heavy Bollinger Band compression on the monthly timeframe. Every single time those bands have tightened to extremes, what followed was expansion. And that expansion led into a proper bull market phase. And how was that marked? Monthly RSI pushing above 77. That has been the signal of real expansion in previous cycles. This time? Whether you believe the cycle is over or not — and that’s up for debate — we have not seen that expansion yet. The monthly Bollinger Bands right now are as tight as they’ve ever been. When you look back historically, every time we’ve been this compressed — and I’ve marked these periods in grey boxes — it has led to aggressive upside volatility in the following months. In prior cycles, that compression resolved into powerful moves. This cycle so far? We’ve had a choppy grind higher. Not explosive. Not euphoric. Just controlled. That’s not how prior cycles ended. Which is why I continue to say — and I’m aware it’s bold — I believe Bitcoin goes to $180K plus by July. Possibly higher. And I think this compression adds weight to that thesis. To me, the discussion is binary. Either we get that volatility expansion to the upside… Or crypto has structurally failed in the short term. And I still can’t entertain the failure argument right now. Because on the largest timeframe, Bitcoin is showing volatility is coming. And historically, when volatility expands from these levels on the monthly, it has expanded upward. Now here’s where it gets more interesting. Bitcoin dominance is also compressing. And I don’t think dominance expands from here long term. I think it loses share. Which means this could be one of those rare moments where you get explosive upside in crypto broadly, not just Bitcoin. An expansion phase we haven’t seen in a long time. And if dominance rolls over during that expansion, altcoins take the majority of the move. Add sentiment into that equation. Sentiment is not euphoric. It’s not overheated. It’s sceptical, cautious, borderline negative. Historically, major upside expansions don’t start from optimism. They start from disbelief. I know these are just a handful of metrics. Bollinger Band compression. Monthly RSI. Dominance volatility. Sentiment. But when multiple things line up on the highest timeframes, it’s something I pay attention to. And right now, I think it’s something you should be paying attention to as well. Especially as the monthly RSI hits bear market lows.

now that we pruned some followers, serious market thoughts; high confidence that the bottom for majors was in at 104k. baseline assumption is somewhat of a grind upwards until end of month and then fully send into November. ETH, SOL, BNB outperform BTC the further the rally goes - they've all bottomed on MTF vs corn. I don't have any additional opinion regarding what comes after, not in this post at least, we trade what's in front of us. starting to become obvious that rotation from gold into equities eventually spills into crypto, by eventually I mean very soon as the equities rotation is already here. "oh but gold is a risk-off signal" - not in this regime, not with hot economy and equities at new highs fueled by revenue and AI bubble, not with QT ending, lower rates, favorable macro conditions and geopolitical/trade tensions mostly resolving soon. QT ending doesn't mean QE btw, you can forget about that dual mandate for Fed is being met, inflation under control, unemployment under control, I don't see a reason, with QT ending, that we don't finally get an expansion in balance sheets for the first time since 2021, M2 is a meme for actual liquidity, don't use it, use balance sheets the gold trade is a debasement bet, a hedge against system, not a fearful trade, foreign nations disbelief in the USA debt have been piling it up [see China], it doesn't stop anytime soon on very HTF, but quite frankly it's topping out for a while here, signaling rotation. it's a ~$30T asset and you think when it rallies it doesn't paralyze every market in the world? think twice, it's a liquidity black hole, same dynamics as BTC <> alts, it paralyzed entire stock market, it WILL paralyze our little ponzi schemes I don't think top for equities is in, what Nvidia is doing is quite criminal, but we enjoy the ride while it lasts, if you know you know, endless money glitch I'm tired of altcoins, I don't even want to think about them or analyze them, don't ask me, I trade majors only for months now, no opinion regarding alts, go find your resident pumpfun KOL or something market update laid out in September stands, search "Market update -> Sort by Latest", I think BTC expands to 140-160k here, ETH 7-8k, SOL 320-400, BNB 1.6-1.8 latest liquidity hunt on the 10th and subsequent chop only strengthens my bullish thesis, they wiped the floor and now they're gonna send it while many watch in anguish and disbelief, welcome to crypto I'm personally very long, I don't need a great setup or price point, balls tingling hard and stars aligning have a nice weekend

No one is talking about this