apsk32

Bitcoin - Power Curve - Time Contours

@kanemcgukin If price follows your trace the underlying power curve fit would be in jeopardy. Possible, but I would be extremely disappointed. I think it's more likely that price increases at least 50-100% over the next twelve months.

@apsk32 Let’s see if the second time turns out like the first.

@fourtrades Yes

@apsk32 Doesn't the min/max change drastically now that we are way outside the blue zones?

On 1 Feb 2027 Bitcoin is worth $180,000. That is 2.2 years ahead of the power curve fit. On 1 Feb 2029 Bitcoin is only 1 year ahead of the power curve fit, which corresponds to a price of $224,800. That's an average yearly gain of 11.8% over two years, which would be disappointing for many. More plainly, if the power curve remains a good forecast of Bitcoin's future price, then frontloading gains means we will need to stall for a while so that the trendline can catch up.

@apsk32 @tankov1ch @DurdenBTC can you be more specific with a scenario?

@tankov1ch @TylerDivv @DurdenBTC Yes, exactly this.

@TylerDivv @apsk32 @DurdenBTC I believe what he means is that if it were to rip that high; it would be overextended based on this power curve extrapolation and to 'fit' it would underperform for a few years.

@extropic_vc The power curve is still holding up well. I think the time contours will remain useful. I'm least confident in the 4-year timing. I use this to gauge expectations but weigh it as one of many signals.

@apsk32 If the previous cycle still aligned with prior years, BTC could have reached above $150K in November and December of last year. It clearly deviated at the start of October 2025. If it has deviated, then how much analytical weight should we still assign to it going forward?

@DurdenBTC I think that's possible. But if we do, we'd be ~2.5 years ahead of the power curve. I'd expect Bitcoin to underperform after that.

@apsk32 watch this cycle flip the script.. disappointing to start but rips to $180k+ into 2027

@HydraBadger Ok, I'll test it out

@apsk32 Y-axis label on the right would be a small improvement

@RESMcycles You'll never catch me fiddling

@apsk32 Make the shifted chart already! Use cross-correlation or concordance analysis if you want to make it unbiased.

@willfightnaked Wifey getting something nice if we touch that circle, that's all i know.

@apsk32 if we touch that circle will anyone be able to say the cycles have not been broken?

@mindslikeseeds If we ever end up back inside the cloud I'm going to post "called it" and disappear.

@apsk32 Power curve cloud is lava

@HardMoneyHodl me too

@apsk32 I’m ready to be hurt again

@bitcoinmark21 Quantiles, especially for the upper range, require constant fiddling. Do not recommend.

@apsk32 Check out this chart. This explains it better than I can. axeladlerjr.com/charts/bitcoin…

Cycle recap