apsk32

Bitcoin - Power Curve - Time Contours

@extropic_vc Yes. Bitcoin's halving intervals have been a little shorter than 4 years. But in general, I just don't trust the timings all that much. IMO the mechanism that caused them (supply changes) has become nearly irrelevant now that 20/21 coins are in circulation.

@apsk32 You mean the time offset. On this chart, we can see a match if we move the red line (Bitcoin price) a few months ahead. What do you think?

The base of Bitcoin's price trajectory has followed a power curve since it started trading on exchanges in July 2010, nearly 16 years ago. My preferred method for measuring deviation from the trendline is via time. Horizontal deviation instead of the more typical vertical deviation. The contours show the position of the power trendline [1,2,3,4,5] years in the future. It's hopefully clear that price is volatile and spends a lot of time above the trendline. However, if the trendline holds into the future, price shouldn't spend too much time below. So, I think of these as rough estimates of the lower bound of Bitcoin's future price. In four years, I'd expect a nasty crash (like we're in now) to take us down to ~$232,000. That's an annualized return of ~35% from where we are today. Of course, these numbers all assume that Bitcoin's price will continue along the power trendline. This plot also overlays past four-year price fractals that were scaled using the time deviation metric, but that's a separate topic. I just wanted to describe how these contours tell you where the trendline will be in the future.

The cloud is made by overlaying 4-year segments. We fell out of the cloud because the bear market started earlier this year that it did in 2021, 2017, and 2013. The cycle timing didn't align with past timings. So far though, the overall trend is still intact. I trust the trend and the time deviation metric more than the timings.

@apsk32 Bitcoin’s going against that model now. How much do you still trust it, % wise?

@extropic_vc Something like this, though I think the cycle pattern will become less reliable.

@apsk32 What’s your top target for the next 4 years?

@BTC_Siferd @grok The lower bound on this indicator is currently 58k, which is a funny number and steeped in lore. Many thought we would never hear from them again, but now with price moving south inside a potential bear flag, we just might need them to assemble a shieldwall for us one last time.

@apsk32 lol, @grok can you translate this scholars text? 😂

O noble and benevolent 58k gang, aged men of the forgotten order, wilt thou still heed the clarion call?

@DataCenterTOG Bitcoin only

@apsk32 Wilt thou own MSTR here?

I'm mentally prepared, but I only think that happens if the broader market declines. Which it could. If instead the broader market chops or starts trending up, then I think we're near the bottom and even without a dramatic V-shaped recovery, we would grind higher with the power curve.

@apsk32 I see no reason to hurry back in. I think we probably still have 8 or more months of bear.

@AhmedabadHodl 5% is probably safe unless you get terribly unlucky at the start. I prefer to be overly conservative because retirement often takes people out of the job market, their skills rust, and reentry is challenging.

@apsk32 This is good work you do. I mostly think with BTC a 5% withdrawal rate should work if you start withdrawing right around a time like today when we have already had a 50% fall. Which FIRE BTC account was it that you are talking about?

Even though the 4% rule was established by backtesting a portfolio of stocks and bonds, it's still the number I'd recommend to friends and family. A FIRE (Financial Independence, Retire Early) X account recently suggested 8% instead because "a conservative estimate for Bitcoin's annualized growth rate is 25%." Over the last 5 years, Bitcoin's annualized return was ~7%. Backtesting an 8% rule starting in March 2021 critically fails and demonstrates the risk of drawing too heavily from your savings with a volatile asset. I do think that 4% will end up being too conservative, but I'd rather leave this world with coins left to give to my descendants rather than find myself dependent on them later in life.

@btcanalytica Nice animation. This bear market will be a good test of those methods you're exploring.

@apsk32 x.com/btcanalytica/s…

@TonySeverinoCMT 🙏 Thanks Tony. Staying open minded to a range of outcomes.

@apsk32 My favvvvvv data guy on X 🙏🙏🙏

Permabulls in my comments assured me this wouldn't happen

@0xOEF Depends on the larger market. If equities rebound, then low 80s seems pretty fair. If equities dump, then I think we tap $50,000 on a wick.

@apsk32 What is your target for bitcoin by end of April ?

My favorite quote last cycle went something like "The bull market can't be over because I haven't reached my financial goals yet." Favorite this cycle was "The same people who told you that there wouldn't be a bear market are now telling you that the bear market is over."

@Sykodelic_ Trend came from two preceding wicks. The active candle body just happened to be there when I took the screenshot.

@apsk32 If you're going to trend it on the current candle body, you have to do all touch points on the body. And you get a very different picture.

Not a great place to get stuck

@Nosredna @HOUSEPORN___ He's constantly shaming you for not riding your bike everywhere like they do in the Netherlands, which he visited once six years ago and still brings up every time you meet.

@HOUSEPORN___ Yes. Friend 3 has no garage. This will escalate into tragedy.

We all agree that's a bad idea, right? 😭

@HardwireMedia I hope we make it to the stars (or at least colonize the space around our star) before ww3

True, though that level of caution is good for anything in life I’d say too. Things you are still extremely confident in should still be cautious of. Nothing with absolute certainty. I think the only realistic way we don’t see this is ww3. But since that hasn’t happened I don’t like to speculate on it. Imagine humanity’s collective suffering throughout history and we stupidly set ourselves back to before the tech age

@Nosredna 😂a rude little dip to keep us humble

@apsk32 I don't want to get teabagged again...