Kankaba

3.4K posts

Kankaba

Kankaba

@kankabate

Katılım Mayıs 2025
664 Takip Edilen52 Takipçiler
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Talmud Enjoyer (Reloaded) 🧬🇮🇱🇬🇧
10. The much hoped for insurrection against the Islamic republic hasn’t yet materialised. Not a huge surprise, given the explicit messaging to Iranian civilians to stay indoors for now, and the general fact that no one wants to take to the streets when there’s bombs going off outside. One would hope that the CIA/Mossad have some tricks to deploy once the major kinetic stage ends. But it definitely seems a long shot.
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Talmud Enjoyer (Reloaded) 🧬🇮🇱🇬🇧
9. It’s clear the Americans didn’t appropriately plan for Iran closing the Hormuz. I’m not sure why. Basically every sensible wargame about this exact scenario predicted it. I guess it’s some combination of underestimating the enemy and misalignment between American military and political leadership. Maybe they didn’t account for how jittery the shipping firms & maritime insurers would get? Maybe they underestimated the resilience of the IRGC’s short-range missile & drone teams? Although after dealing with the Houthis they should have had an idea of what they’d be dealing with and how hard these small mobile teams can be to track down.
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Talmud Enjoyer (Reloaded) 🧬🇮🇱🇬🇧
8. The other Iranian proxies are a mixed bag. Hamas and PIJ are spent forces. The PMF are causing issues but nothing sufficient to stall the American war effort. The Houthis are a big unknown. If they join in on the shipping squeeze they could be a huge fucking problem. Unclear why they haven’t joined, given that they’re considered the least degraded of the Axis and aren’t exactly casualty-averse. Maybe they’re wary of inviting another Saudi intervention.
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Talmud Enjoyer (Reloaded) 🧬🇮🇱🇬🇧
7. Despite reconstituting to some extent after 2024, Hezbollah are basically a shell of their former selves. The radwan infantry is getting cheese grated and they’re taking losses that seem unsustainable. Their domestic political position in Lebanon also appears much diminished. However, their rocket corps are still causing localised destruction in northern Israeli towns. They appear to have pinned their hopes of survival on continuing to bully & intimidate the Lebanese state into not confronting them while stalling the IDF as much as possible until the end of the war, in the hope that a peace deal favourable to the regime will allow Iranian support to return.
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Talmud Enjoyer (Reloaded) 🧬🇮🇱🇬🇧
6. The strategy of attacking the GCC has had mixed results. The Gulf Arabs aren’t quite the soft target Iran hoped they’d be and they may have at least in the short term galvanised regional opposition to the regime. But attacks against energy infrastructure definitely has everyone spooked and the coalition don’t really have many answers to it besides escalating in kind.
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Talmud Enjoyer (Reloaded) 🧬🇮🇱🇬🇧
5. Iran continuously fails to meaningfully damage the Israeli home front. Much less its military. But the slow trickle of ballistic missile launches can definitely cause major disruption and localised terror. The IRGC seems to recognise this, partly explaining their pivot to attacking the GCC.
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Talmud Enjoyer (Reloaded) 🧬🇮🇱🇬🇧
4. Still unclear if Mojtaba Khamenei is involved in management of the war, or is even alive. But it probably doesn’t matter; it’s the IRGC are very much calling the shots and have consolidated their control of the Iranian at the expense of both the clerical establishment and the civilian government. This is an outcome many predicted would follow the succession of the elder Khamenei. His abrupt death likely just accelerated it.
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Talmud Enjoyer (Reloaded) 🧬🇮🇱🇬🇧
3. Despite massive losses to their leadership echelon, cohesion between and within the military & state structures of the Islamic Republic appears to be holding fairly well. Similarly, command & control seems to be disrupted but hasn’t broken down.
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Talmud Enjoyer (Reloaded) 🧬🇮🇱🇬🇧
2. Iran still hasn’t found a way to reliably protect their senior commanders and thwart Israeli intelligence penetration (although the fact they Vahidi has survived this whole time despite our unsettled score with him may suggest some individuals are better that it than others)
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Talmud Enjoyer (Reloaded) 🧬🇮🇱🇬🇧
1. Iran’s conventional military is being crushed and they have no real defence against Israeli/American air dominance. Their advantage is in dispersed unconventional drone & missile attacks using small teams. Which I think everyone predicted would happen.
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Kenyans.co.ke
Kenyans.co.ke@Kenyans·
We won't increase the tax rate for Kenyans in the 2026/27 budget - CS Mbadi
Kenyans.co.ke tweet media
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Eric Kigada
Eric Kigada@EricKigada·
There are so many things that are wrong in this post that I do not know where to start correcting.
GIF
FERDINAND OMONDI@FerdyOmondi

Kenya’s rush into a 2,000MW nuclear plant in Siaya is a historic mistake in the making – economically, environmentally, and strategically. First, context. Kenya already gets about 85–90% of its electricity from clean sources: geothermal, hydro, wind and increasingly solar. We are a global poster child for clean power without nuclear. Our main challenge isn’t a lack of clean options. We aren’t planning and using what we have well enough. So why gamble billions on the most complex, riskiest option on the menu? A single 2,000MW nuclear plant is one of the largest, most expensive projects in our history. These plants are notorious for cost overruns and delays in far richer, more technically advanced countries. If it runs late (very likely) or goes over budget (almost guaranteed), someone has to pay. That “someone” is Kenyan taxpayers and electricity consumers. We risk locking ourselves into decades of high tariffs or more public debt to service a mega‑project we didn’t actually need. Meanwhile, the opportunity cost is massive. For the same money, Kenya could add thousands of megawatts of geothermal, wind and solar across multiple counties, plus storage and transmission to stabilise the grid. Geothermal alone, in the Rift Valley, can provide 24/7 baseload power without importing fuel – and we’ve already shown we know how to do it. Wind in Turkana, solar in the north and east, small hydro, battery storage: these are proven, modular, quicker to build, and spread economic benefits more widely than one giant plant in Siaya. Then there’s the risk profile. Nuclear accidents are rare, but when they go wrong, they go very wrong and last for generations. Putting a first‑ever nuclear plant on Lake Victoria, which supports millions of people across several countries, is a huge regional gamble. Even “minor” incidents or perceived risk can devastate fisheries, tourism, and local livelihoods. Radioactive waste is a 100‑year question in a political system that struggles to manage five‑year projects without scandal. Do we really trust our current institutions to run a flawless nuclear safety culture for the next century? Governance is the elephant in the room. Nuclear is the kind of project that attracts opaque deals, expensive foreign contractors, complex technology transfer promises, and huge procurement contracts. In a country where big infrastructure routinely raises questions about corruption and value for money, adding nuclear’s complexity is like pouring petrol on a smouldering fire. Once we sign, we are locked in – to a vendor, to a technology, to a repayment schedule – regardless of how our economy or technology options evolve. Strategically, it also makes little sense. The world is moving towards flexible, distributed, renewables‑heavy systems supported by storage and smart grids. Nuclear is the opposite: big, centralised, inflexible units that must run almost all the time to be economical. On a grid like Kenya’s, where demand is still growing and industrialisation is uneven, dropping 2,000MW of inflexible baseload can actually complicate balancing, especially when we add more variable wind and solar. We risk building a system that is technically elegant on paper but financially and operationally brittle in reality. Kenya’s climate and geography give us an embarrassment of renewable riches: untapped geothermal reservoirs, some of the best wind regimes on the continent, abundant solar irradiation, and room for regional power trade. Instead of doubling down on what works and scaling it smartly, we are flirting with the most capital‑intensive, politically risky, institution‑demanding technology available. It’s like bypassing a field full of ripe maize to plant a single, exotic crop we’ve never grown before, which only matures if the weather is perfect for 20 years. If our goal is cheap, reliable, climate‑friendly power that supports jobs and industry, the answer is to go deeper on what we’re already good at: – Aggressively expand geothermal as firm baseload. – Add more wind and solar, especially near demand centres. – Invest in storage, transmission, and regional interconnectors. – Fix governance, planning, and utility finances so that Kenyans actually feel the benefit on their bills. Nuclear might have a place someday in a much larger, richer, more industrialised Kenya with rock‑solid institutions. But right now, when we are already at 85%+ clean power and sitting on huge untapped renewable potential, a 2,000MW nuclear plant is not visionary at all. It’s a high‑risk distraction. Our focus should be on making Kenya the first truly renewables‑powered industrial economy in Africa, not a test case for big nuclear on Lake Victoria.

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Cerebral Assassin
Nuclear iko sawa kabisa don’t listen to this guy he has little to no experience in energy systems A diversified energy mix is good for the economy and grid resilience. Solar and wind are cosmetic erratic energy sources that can never industrialize a nation.
FERDINAND OMONDI@FerdyOmondi

Kenya’s rush into a 2,000MW nuclear plant in Siaya is a historic mistake in the making – economically, environmentally, and strategically. First, context. Kenya already gets about 85–90% of its electricity from clean sources: geothermal, hydro, wind and increasingly solar. We are a global poster child for clean power without nuclear. Our main challenge isn’t a lack of clean options. We aren’t planning and using what we have well enough. So why gamble billions on the most complex, riskiest option on the menu? A single 2,000MW nuclear plant is one of the largest, most expensive projects in our history. These plants are notorious for cost overruns and delays in far richer, more technically advanced countries. If it runs late (very likely) or goes over budget (almost guaranteed), someone has to pay. That “someone” is Kenyan taxpayers and electricity consumers. We risk locking ourselves into decades of high tariffs or more public debt to service a mega‑project we didn’t actually need. Meanwhile, the opportunity cost is massive. For the same money, Kenya could add thousands of megawatts of geothermal, wind and solar across multiple counties, plus storage and transmission to stabilise the grid. Geothermal alone, in the Rift Valley, can provide 24/7 baseload power without importing fuel – and we’ve already shown we know how to do it. Wind in Turkana, solar in the north and east, small hydro, battery storage: these are proven, modular, quicker to build, and spread economic benefits more widely than one giant plant in Siaya. Then there’s the risk profile. Nuclear accidents are rare, but when they go wrong, they go very wrong and last for generations. Putting a first‑ever nuclear plant on Lake Victoria, which supports millions of people across several countries, is a huge regional gamble. Even “minor” incidents or perceived risk can devastate fisheries, tourism, and local livelihoods. Radioactive waste is a 100‑year question in a political system that struggles to manage five‑year projects without scandal. Do we really trust our current institutions to run a flawless nuclear safety culture for the next century? Governance is the elephant in the room. Nuclear is the kind of project that attracts opaque deals, expensive foreign contractors, complex technology transfer promises, and huge procurement contracts. In a country where big infrastructure routinely raises questions about corruption and value for money, adding nuclear’s complexity is like pouring petrol on a smouldering fire. Once we sign, we are locked in – to a vendor, to a technology, to a repayment schedule – regardless of how our economy or technology options evolve. Strategically, it also makes little sense. The world is moving towards flexible, distributed, renewables‑heavy systems supported by storage and smart grids. Nuclear is the opposite: big, centralised, inflexible units that must run almost all the time to be economical. On a grid like Kenya’s, where demand is still growing and industrialisation is uneven, dropping 2,000MW of inflexible baseload can actually complicate balancing, especially when we add more variable wind and solar. We risk building a system that is technically elegant on paper but financially and operationally brittle in reality. Kenya’s climate and geography give us an embarrassment of renewable riches: untapped geothermal reservoirs, some of the best wind regimes on the continent, abundant solar irradiation, and room for regional power trade. Instead of doubling down on what works and scaling it smartly, we are flirting with the most capital‑intensive, politically risky, institution‑demanding technology available. It’s like bypassing a field full of ripe maize to plant a single, exotic crop we’ve never grown before, which only matures if the weather is perfect for 20 years. If our goal is cheap, reliable, climate‑friendly power that supports jobs and industry, the answer is to go deeper on what we’re already good at: – Aggressively expand geothermal as firm baseload. – Add more wind and solar, especially near demand centres. – Invest in storage, transmission, and regional interconnectors. – Fix governance, planning, and utility finances so that Kenyans actually feel the benefit on their bills. Nuclear might have a place someday in a much larger, richer, more industrialised Kenya with rock‑solid institutions. But right now, when we are already at 85%+ clean power and sitting on huge untapped renewable potential, a 2,000MW nuclear plant is not visionary at all. It’s a high‑risk distraction. Our focus should be on making Kenya the first truly renewables‑powered industrial economy in Africa, not a test case for big nuclear on Lake Victoria.

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Kankaba
Kankaba@kankabate·
@JUNX1ONG I am pro China beacuse they build stuff here.
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Wnxt
Wnxt@JUNX1ONG·
Alot of the pro Chyna, pro ayatollah, pro putler guys simply haven't given the reason for holding said ideologies much thought. It is simply anti-americanism and not much else.
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