JD retweetledi
Markets are in turmoil.
Let me ease your concerns with this video...
English
JD
4.9K posts
JD
@kaoticrunner
size 12 mostly sometimes 11.5/13!
Los Angeles, CA Katılım Şubat 2009
735 Takip Edilen215 Takipçiler
JD retweetledi
I'm currently at 20% cash, my highest cash position ever. It's not because I sold, but mainly because I haven't added extra cash in a while.
Starting from next week, I will start to use this cash again. I'm still considering which positions I will strengthen.
I probably won't buy the $IREN dip.
$IREN is currently 6% of my portfolio and I'm down 20% on the position. I'm still bullish long-term but I don't feel that this is the moment to buy the dip.
I feel that the market is still de-risking. Pre-revenue stocks like $OKLO have dropped 71% from the highs.
In industries like datacenters or space, the safer stocks are currently outperforming the market. For space, the positive free cash flow of $PL is giving them the edge. In the datacenter environment, $NBIS is clearly outperforming.
IREN's business model makes that they are the high risk - high reward play in the datacenter industry. To put it simply, they buy the $NVDA GPUs and lend them. So, IREN is not only providing the power, they are providing the hardware as well. Other business models, only provide power.
This makes that $IREN needs more cash than other companies do in the space. The $6b ATM is a logical consequence.
I don't agree that the $6b ATM is just "noise". I also don't agree that this is the end. I know that they only issued the option to activate the $6b ATM, but I don't see why you would issue the option without confirming it.
They won't activate this yet though. They just bought the newest Nvidia GPUs without the ATM. These GPUs will be used to attract a new hyperscaler deal. This new deal will bring more cash but, it will be paid in multiple steps.
So, I believe the activation will only happen after $IREN announces a new deal and need more cash to buy more GPU's to attract another deal. The first new deal should push the stock higher and make the ATM less impactful than it would be today.
An ATM is never completely noise though. Noise does not impact the balance sheet, an ATM does. In a market where the key theme is de-risking, a company where the Sword of Damocles is hanging over their head, is probably not the best choice now.
Might add some more when the broader market shift changes, but happy with my position at the moment.
KaizenInvestor@Kaizen_Investor
The ATM trend continues: Following $IREN's massive $6B ATM offering filing, $AAOI has followed suit, filing for its own $250M ATM. Do you know what an ATM actually is, and why it should concern you as a shareholder? Let me explain An At-The-Market (ATM) offering is a mechanism a publicly traded company uses to raise cash by creating new shares of stock and selling them directly into the open market at the current trading price. Imagine a company that owns a glass safe. In the safe is exactly $10. The company has 10 shares at the moment, all trading at $1. If you own 1 share, you have the right to 10% of what is in the vault (so, $1). It is an open market, so everyone can see what is in the safe. The company now wants to do an ATM of $5, which means they will be looking for 5 new shareholders to put $1 extra in the safe. If 5 new shareholders put an extra $5 in the safe, the safe will be worth $15 and there are now 15 shares. Still all worth $1. You now own 6.67% of a $15 company instead of 10% of a $10 company. So, if the math balances perfectly, why does the stock price almost always drop? 1. True, for the first part of the explanation we can stay with our virtual safe company. Why would a person pay $1 to get a $1 share in return? There might be a risk that the safe gets stolen. He wants a return. So to convince new investors, you will probably have to sell the new shares at $0.95. This has an immediate negative impact on the existing shareholders. The more shareholders you need to find, the lower the convincing price will become. When the price drops, existing shareholders might want to sell as well. This can become a negative spiral. 2. Another immediate impact is that the EPS will drop. Let's say that after the money is 1 year in the safe, it will return $0.1. So in the beginning the $10 will return $1 each year. Every investor will get $0.1 and the EPS will be 0.1. Now there is $15 in the safe, but the last $5 will not return money for another year. The $1 realized profit will now have to be divided over 15 shares. The EPS will automatically drop to 0.067. 3. For the final negative part, we need to leave the safe example. In a real company, the value is different for every investor. The share price is a constant battle between supply and demand. With an ATM, the supply obviously increases while the demand might not. The demand could increase as well, as investors might think that the board might do great things with the new money. But when the ATM is big, the pressure of the constant new supply might be overwhelming. Conclusion So, the share price certainly does not have to come down with a small ATM. If investors trust the company to achieve high returns with the fresh money, the ATM might be a great decision. But the 3 consequences explained here will put constant pressure on that stock price. Convincing new shareholders, a lower EPS and a constant new supply of shares might be costly for existing shareholders.
English
JD retweetledi
The only chart that matters is the $SPY
All eyes are on the 615 level as it is a repeated pattern level
2020 pullback was a retest of the 2015 highs
2022 pullback was a retest of the 2020 highs
2025 pullback was a retest of the 2022 highs
2026 pullback is a retest of the 2025 highs?
Be prepared for another 3-5% pullback to the zone
The bottom happens when we a day of liquidations, worst headlines, everything is selling off without a single green candle. And that’s the bottom
And everything else will find their bottoms eventually
First Tech Mag7, then AI Stocks, then Banks, & Blue chips.
Take Liberation Day as an example of how we bottomed and nobody expected that
Be prepared for more pain
English
JD retweetledi
SPACEX COULD MAKE TESLA CRASH, Here's Why⚠️
$TSLA has dropped around $150 since Christmas... YES $150. Now Space X is about to IPO and this could make things EVEN WORSE. The big issue is now investors have to decide HOW DO I INVEST IN ELON?
THIS COULD BE VERY BAD👇
JEFE TRADES 🔪@JEFETRADES
Unpopular opinion SpaceX ipo is bad for $TSLA Tesla stock
English
JD retweetledi
🎖️ This tool took my trading to the next level. I've rarely added any new tools over the years after refining my trading to a handful of entry models.
But live gamma on SPX, used in confluence with my TA, helped me avoid so many stupid trades on the indexes by showing where gamma is concentrated.
I thought there was a possibility of a reversal long late in the day but all of the gamma on SPX was below. I flipped short and used my TA to line up with gamma levels.
Here it is demonstrated on a live trade I took publicly on ES today. 👇🏼
English
JD retweetledi
Remember, SPY ALWAYS bottoms BEFORE war ends. SPY could easily bottom in March/early April.
History proves this to be true:
The pattern is the same in these 5 US wars:
Markets bottom early and recover before wars end. The bottom comes fast. SPY prices in worst-case scenarios within weeks or months. By the time the war ends, most of the gains are already gone.
Certainty drives rallies. During the Iraq War, markets bottomed 8 days before the invasion. Once uncertainty disappeared, stocks rallied 27% over the next year.
Short wars follow a pattern. The Gulf War dropped 21%, bottomed months before the ceasefire, then gained 29% in the next year.
Long wars matter less. Afghanistan lasted 20 years, but the market bottom was tied to the dot-com crash, not the war. Still, returns were strong after.
The average 1-year return from wartime bottoms is +32.6%.
The market doesn’t wait for peace it moves ahead of it.
English
JD retweetledi
$IREN filed to dilute $6,000,000,000 at a $11.7B MC.
That is not noise.
This is Iren's way to monetize their 4.5GW capacity by selling all those new shares onto the open market.
If you want some history on how this turns out:
Look at $BKKT that crashed 99% with Mike and $IREN board of directors history with excessive ATMs. Or his recent company $ASST.
It’s accretive to the company and executives: Because it wipes out all retail shareholders and they can always issue SBC.
So they don’t actually care what stock price it needs to be at to sell.
After they’re finished, they have $6B in new cash to use for scaling without paying interest.
But the reason why convertible notes with interest, and $NVDA funding balance sheets is much better for retail capital:
Is because it doesn’t wipe out retail equity to achieve this. Because at this point $IREN looks like the $AMC of datacenters with a dwindling moat, and looming $6B in shares sold into the open market.
Reason I post about $IREN is because
- people dismiss a $6B ATM as “Noise”
- it’s one of the most popular retail “buy the dip” companies that they’re buying into a $6B dilution machine
- people still don’t understand the risk at all.
- the amount they have now is not enough to finance GPUs/GW capacity monetization.
- they likely will have to use the ATM, it’s not “optionality”
Again: I have zero positions in the company.
I’m just warning retail investors that this ATM structurally wipes out your equity appreciation by how structural mechanics of $6B+ ATMs work.
Because $IREN likely needs to sell new shares at any price to monetize their GW, otherwise there would be zero need to file it.
Executives actually don't need to care because they can make up for stock price dropping by issuing SBC like $SNAP.
If you have to wonder if your equity gets wiped out from an excessive ATM:
There are better longs out there than $IREN.
Bony@BonyBallf2
@aleabitoreddit @Kaizen_Investor I feel like you are way too much focused on the dilution. If they excecute their GW pipeline properly the dilution is just noise. Demand for available GW is so massive and i do think most data centers will have massive delays and also though time to get financed. So imo $iren ☝️
English
Killing my bull thesis for $OKLO
Monthly BX just flipped dark red, and that’s my line in the sand.
From here, my map shows a possible 30–40% slide into the smart money zone.
In the video I walk through the exact levels and why I’m out.
English
JD retweetledi
My $SPY scenario is similar like last April:
Early rally next week due to Q1 ending rebalance + Good Friday holiday (close on Friday next week) = $SPY could pump to 645-655 with low volumes.
Second week of April when PPI-CPI kicks in then more downsides coming because of oil spiked in early March. Nfa.
English
JD retweetledi
$MSFT 340 should be able to provide meaningful support. Closing below 200 week MA is something hasn’t been done in 13 years. I wonder if long term funds sell into this weakness or not.
KevinX@KevinXInvest
$MSFT. Short term it should find footing around 375 200WMA followed by a relief bounce.
English
JD retweetledi
JD retweetledi
Update: Lost 15k 📉
This is the last time I am buying calls until after the war ends. Have probably went down around 200k on calls alone since the start of the war.
Hope no one followed this horrendous play and apologies if I lost anyone money. Will most likely be done trading for the day
$spy
English
JD retweetledi
I’ve unloaded heavy size off and sit with about 30% size for May puts across the board.
They give me 650-655-657.
I start scaling back in for a lower high push. For now, we sit and wait for the entry.
Don’t chase puts here. Wait for a pop higher to form a lower high to reload.
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!
— TJ
#SP500 #SPY #QQQ #TSLA #PLTR #NVDA #AAPL #Bitcoin #Crypto #stockmarket
English
JD retweetledi
I am swinging calls over the weekend.
4/10 strike 635.
Higher risk but worth a shot here.
Target is $645-$647
$SPY $SPX #SP500
English
JD retweetledi
$SPY
I stand firm that we will see a move to 610-615 by end of April.
Another 3% to the downside is where ill look long.
Vandy_trades@vandy_trades
Good morning! On 2/21 I predicted a $VIX to 30 by mid March and we got it. I think a DCB is likely, but another -3% to -5% on $SPY is very likely by early/ mid April. This is an opportunity to scoop some of your favorite names up at discount, remember that. Long term vision.
English
JD retweetledi
JD retweetledi
MORE BLEEDING INCOMING, WATCH FOR THIS🩸
$META Down ANOTHER $20+ today with $MSFT Following again. $TSLA rejecting from the 200ma down over $30 from the Major Resistance. Semis on the brink of Rolling over as well with $NVDA $AVGO
It going to be a LONG Weekend, Pay Attention👇
JEFE TRADES 🔪@JEFETRADES
THIS IS A BLOODBATH AND ITS GETTING WORSE🚧 $META is tanked $40+ TODAY and $MSFT is back UNDER 2023 LEVELS... The Mag 7 was warning us of more selling but these names STILL have more downside. Yes more downside is likely but I CANT SAY IT ENOUGH, these are OPPORTUNITIES 👇
English
JD retweetledi
This is where most people get tripped up when trading in the stock market..
I will be adjusting risk here.
I’ve reduced May puts by 10%, bringing total exposure down to 30%.
All April puts are closed. Now I wait.
If we get a push back toward 657, that’s where I’ll add back to May puts and begin rebuilding a new April position.
I am not trading calls in this environment.
Just taking profit, staying patient and waiting for better positioning.
If we continue lower from here, I’ll ride the 30% size down.
If we bounce, I use it. That’s the plan.
Because structurally, nothing has changed. We’re still in a lower high / lower low environment. We’ve lost the 200 DMA and can’t reclaim it. We’ve lost the weekly 2.5x ATR. The monthly signal line remains bearish.
That’s not something I’m fighting.
My target remains 610 by the end of next month.
Any pop higher is a gift. And I’ll treat it as one.
You want to know the kicker?
There is a 70% chance that the #SP500 hits 610 by end of next month.
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!
— TJ
#SP500 #SPY #QQQ #TSLA #PLTR #NVDA #AAPL #Bitcoin #Crypto #stockmarket
English
JD retweetledi
$SPY I expected a relief bounce to start around the 50 weekly sma and the 23.60% fib retracement (641-644) to 670s, then down again to 615-610. This week’s close may change my mind and make me call for 615-610 right away, with some bounces in the middle of course. Just not yet though.
Next week will tell us more, sometimes price closes below the 50 weekly sma to touch the 65 weekly sma before bouncing from there to reclaim the 50. A follower showed me that in the morning and I back tracked it but I forgot who he was.
If we see a move to 625 followed by a strong reaction and reclamation of the 50 weekly sma, we’ll probably get the strong relief rally to 660s-670s before continuing lower.
If we don’t reclaim the 50 weekly sma next week and close below the 65 sma which is around 625 now, we are going for 615-610. 611 is the next fib retracement level of 38.20%, and this area has huge demand overall.
I think the market will resolve lower on the long term whether we get a strong relief bounce or not. Even if the war ends tomorrow, the economical damage is already done and we should be seeing the consequences in the upcoming economic reports.
It’ll be interesting to see how everything plays out. We’ll plan the trades accordingly and capitalise on these moves together.
English
JD retweetledi
those wondering why i dont care to capture a 120 point move up prob didnt swing long with me last week lmao
the return is not worth it with 30 VIX
let them crush vix and sweep the low and then get long
the picture is more clear than ever . c u next tuesday
HAGW
$SPX $SPY $QQQ
English