Karl Handscomb

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Karl Handscomb

Karl Handscomb

@karlhandscomb

I like to apply logic, common sense and history to make the world a better place. Tweets are personal views.

Katılım Ağustos 2009
442 Takip Edilen972 Takipçiler
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Karl Handscomb
Karl Handscomb@karlhandscomb·
In some personal news, I'll be leaving the Resolution Foundation in June, and moving to work at the OECD in Paris. It's been a great* 3 years, but time to try something new! *Great from a work perspective. The pandemic and cost of living crisis not so much.
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Karl Handscomb
Karl Handscomb@karlhandscomb·
@carsjung I can't reconcile their labour and total household income forecasts. -1.75% for labour income over 2022-2024 and +2.75% for household income. Something not quite right there... and would have been nice to have some text explaining the differences (unless I missed it?) (edit)
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Carsten Jung
Carsten Jung@carsjung·
On the BoE decision today: there has been moderate positive economic news, but I still think the Bank is over-tightening. It should have held off raising rates today. (1/4)
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Karl Handscomb
Karl Handscomb@karlhandscomb·
I'll be a little quieter on here, but do DM if you want my contact details.
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Karl Handscomb
Karl Handscomb@karlhandscomb·
In some personal news, I'll be leaving the Resolution Foundation in June, and moving to work at the OECD in Paris. It's been a great* 3 years, but time to try something new! *Great from a work perspective. The pandemic and cost of living crisis not so much.
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Karl Handscomb retweetledi
David Linden
David Linden@DavidLinden·
Secretary of State has just announced that the @DWP will not lodge an appeal to the ICO, so the Government will comply and finally release this report. FAO @patrickjbutler
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Karl Handscomb
Karl Handscomb@karlhandscomb·
We wrote a paper on this issue (how do you support low-to-middle-income households not on benefits?) There is no great/easy/politically attractive solution, but the easiest way is lower price cap for all and higher taxes for the rich as an offset... resolutionfoundation.org/publications/a…
Martin Lewis@MartinSLewis

A few hard comments about the benefits cost of living payments. Remember 40% of people on UC work. Many who don't are due to disability, illness, caring responsibility. Some in the middle need help too (why I campaigned for energy price not to rise) but don't make it 'us v em'

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Karl Handscomb
Karl Handscomb@karlhandscomb·
@ianmulheirn Not sure that's quite what I read it as? More that if AI software is used to make products/services/businesses less competitive then that *could* increase inequality? I'm not sure why that would be the case though, I expect AI to reduce rent-seeking (I think!)
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Ian Mulheirn
Ian Mulheirn@ianmulheirn·
This idea that tech is good if it 'complements' and bad if it 'displaces' labour is completely bogus isn't it? Higher prod anywhere displaces labour - a feature not bug. And all tech ultimately 'complements' delivery of outcomes humans want at some point in the supply chain
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Karl Handscomb
Karl Handscomb@karlhandscomb·
Maybe this would have happened with a 9:30 release? But my guess is there would have been less volatility overall. PS: dear traders/algorithms, please get better economic advice... (Also the ONS bulletin is great, but it can't do big picture discussion - i.e. talk about rate s!)
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Karl Handscomb
Karl Handscomb@karlhandscomb·
11am: message starts to sink in - it's probably a temporary blip, ah yes wages aren't growing anymore. 2pm: back to where we started, no rate rise expected... but had a lot of volatility in the meanwhile which is bad for basically everyone except the banks.
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Karl Handscomb
Karl Handscomb@karlhandscomb·
A textbook example of 7am ONS releases making markets *less* stable IMO. 7am: Inflation surprises to the upside and markets suddenly think this means BoE will raise rates as a result. 9am: More detailed analysis and comment emerge - and more importantly - gets shared around.
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Karl Handscomb
Karl Handscomb@karlhandscomb·
@t0nyyates You almost sound like an MPC member... but yes point taken.
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Tony Yates
Tony Yates@t0nyyates·
@karlhandscomb My first reply meant 'don't expect banks to be treated as either pure private institutions, or nationalised entities.... the thing they are trying to do for us and the problems that generates may well mean we have this in between situation'.
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Karl Handscomb
Karl Handscomb@karlhandscomb·
@t0nyyates So are Swiss watches, but you don't see taxpayers bailing them out? (I should caveat that this just an observation and I take no view on whether the SNB has done the right thing or not).
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Karl Handscomb
Karl Handscomb@karlhandscomb·
@StefBenstead @Hossylass Sorry! That was not my intention! I was pointing out that the vast majority probably don't need two assessments every 2/3 years. Gov't *do* need something for those who are not eligible for PIP and are too sick. Given reform will take years to do, good chance this will happen.
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Stef Benstead
Stef Benstead@StefBenstead·
@karlhandscomb Sorry, can I just check I've got this right? 1/3 of people who are so sick they can't work or do 'WRA' do not currently claim, and may not be eligible for, PIP - and you think that's an acceptable proportion to be made destitute so govt can save money on assessments? @Hossylass
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Karl Handscomb
Karl Handscomb@karlhandscomb·
It's been widely trailed that Government is abolishing the work capability assessment for UC tomorrow (and presumably relying on the PIP assessment for UC disability elements). But, key question is how many might lose out - e.g. they are on UC (LCWRA / health), but not on PIP?
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Karl Handscomb
Karl Handscomb@karlhandscomb·
@JMKPolicy Well - I would *hope* that the PIP assessment is modified/slightly extended so can accurately assess people's ability to work from it. But this sounds like detail yet to be worked out...
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Graeme Cooke
Graeme Cooke@GraemeCooke3·
@tonywilsonIES @karlhandscomb @Deven_Ghelani @dan_tomlinson_ @jdportes Karl - I think you point to key question above. Do you have sense of what proportion of those who get health related addition in UC (currently via WCA) but NOT PIP have a) temporary sickness or health issue versus b) long term condition which doesn’t currently qualify for PIP?
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Karl Handscomb
Karl Handscomb@karlhandscomb·
And this, I think, is the big policy hole with this reform. What is the social security offer for people with short-term (<12 months) health conditions? Sick-pay and initial UC rates are miserly amounts - arguably pushing people into poverty and making journey back to work harder
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Keşfet

@resfoundation @carsjung @DWP @patrickjbutler @ianmulheirn @t0nyyates @StefBenstead @Hossylass