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If you enjoy my work on Twitter you might like a project I have called The Jaggy Thistle. It's a deep dive into Scottish politics and Scottish culture. There's a link in my Twitter bio. I explain more in this short video.
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Kenny Farquharson
91.5K posts
Kenny Farquharson
@KennyFarq
Columnist with @thetimes in Scotland. Editor of The Jaggy Thistle substack. Orwell Fellow. I've been a puppet, a pauper, a pirate, a poet, a pawn and a king.
Edinburgh Katılım Şubat 2009
13.1K Takip Edilen43.2K Takipçiler
NEW: Up to a third of Scots want to vote tactically on Thursday but figuring out where their vote should go is a thankless and perhaps futile task. I explain why in this eve-of-poll podcast.
Link to full podcast: open.substack.com/pub/thejaggyth…
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I need to write a piece about an important distinction in opinion polling: between polls that aim to show how an election/referendum will go, and polls that aim to show what the nation thinks on a given subject. Much misunderstanding on this, not least on the constitution.
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One of the problems with this is that many diehard Unionists do not agree with Ferry that a sustained and substantial majority would justify another referendum. They insist there is no legitimate exit, that the UK is a seamless robe, indivisible.
John Ferry@JohnFerry18
There is no need for non-nationalists to outline a path to a second independence referendum because it's already as clear as day what that path is. New from me @spectator 👇✍️ spectator.com/article/how-to…
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@KennyFarq about half of green/green voters from our February poll had a favourable view of SNP so am assuming actual ballots will be a different story
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Interesting to note that Norstat’s removal of the Greens from constituency vote question (except in the handful of seats they are standing) has only boosted SNP by two points.
Dan Sanderson@DSanderson_85
🗳️SNP to fall well short of majority amid Tory fight back, @NorstatUKPolls pre-election poll finds. Constituency (*Green excluded where not standing) 🟡 SNP 36 (+2 vs April) 🔴 Lab 20 (+1) ➡️ Ref 16 (+1) 🔵 Con 14 (+3) 🟠 LibDem 11 (+1) 🟢Green* 1 (-7)
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My understanding is the SNP leadership intends for this issue to be examined by a constitutional convention on Scotland’s future, the setting up of which has been party policy for a number of years. A convenient cover for a historic shift in Scottish nationalist thinking?
Kenny Farquharson@KennyFarq
Fascinating insight in The Sunday Times Scotland that “some in Swinney’s inner circle” have been pushing for an Irish-style border poll agreement with UK govt - a historic compromise I have spent years arguing for - but “they did not prevail”.
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@dmccafferty49 @DSanderson_85 @NorstatUKPolls I think I’ve said this to you before, Danny, but it’s political madness to ignore polls you don’t like and just pay attention to flattering ones. Strategically foolish.
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Kenny Farquharson retweetledi
🗳️SNP to fall well short of majority amid Tory fight back, @NorstatUKPolls pre-election poll finds.
Constituency (*Green excluded where not standing)
🟡 SNP 36 (+2 vs April)
🔴 Lab 20 (+1)
➡️ Ref 16 (+1)
🔵 Con 14 (+3)
🟠 LibDem 11 (+1)
🟢Green* 1 (-7)
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Kenny Farquharson retweetledi
Malcolm Offord urged to 'come clean' over claims he 'bought' Reform leadership after Farage donation
dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/…
dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/…
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Kenny Farquharson retweetledi
The data that reveals why John Swinney is falling short of a majority #Echobox=1777739667" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">thetimes.com/uk/scotland/ar…
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@MarkStephens64 How about a majority with a third of the vote?
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@KennyFarq That doesn’t seem like an intolerable “discrepancy” - certainly not compared to FPTP. If you want perfect proportionality then you have a national list system, confronted with which most would agree that proportionality isn’t the only “good” we want from an electoral system.
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Dysfunction of Holyrood’s voting system plain to see in Norstat poll for Sunday Times Scotland. Labour ahead of Reform by four points in constituencies and level on 17 in regions - but Reform wins 19 MSPs to Labour’s 16.
thetimes.com/article/7a4c8d…
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@KennyFarq the courts don’t make the law. Unless the Sec breaks the law his discretion is his discretion. It’s not for the Supreme Court to decide what a sustained majority should look like, that should be set out in legislation.
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Fascinating insight in The Sunday Times Scotland that “some in Swinney’s inner circle” have been pushing for an Irish-style border poll agreement with UK govt - a historic compromise I have spent years arguing for - but “they did not prevail”.
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Irony here is that when Sturgeon resigned both of the main candidates to replace her - Yousaf and Forbes - agreed the only legitimate trigger for another referendum was a substantial and sustained majority for indy. In power Yousaf bottled it because the party wouldn’t wear it.
Kenny Farquharson@KennyFarq
Fascinating insight in The Sunday Times Scotland that “some in Swinney’s inner circle” have been pushing for an Irish-style border poll agreement with UK govt - a historic compromise I have spent years arguing for - but “they did not prevail”.
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@ChrisMcEleny That’s the wriggle room. But it’s limited. Like I say, if the courts were to judge there was a clear, substantial, sustained majority - not 51%, I would imagine - a reluctant sec of state would be on a loser. Lots of good academic work on this across the water.
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@KennyFarq so a year of 51% opinion polls? 60%? 70% ? Also the legislation allows the Secretary of State to include in the Order wherever provisions he sees fit so 50%+ of all eligible voters required ? A supermajority required?
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@ChrisMcEleny Read it again. Clearly justiciable in the event of a clear, substantial and sustained majority for a united Ireland. The key word, from memory, is “shall”. That is not an option. That is a duty.
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@KennyFarq The legislation does not define what "likelihood" is or specify the evidence of what determines likelihood (polling, election results)etc , leaving it solely to the Secretary of State's judgment.
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@ford_ford6 Sorry, I misread your tweet. There is no constituency breakdown as this is not an MRP.
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@ChrisMcEleny It’s not a discretion, it’s a legal duty, and therefore subject to judicial review if sec of state drags their feet.
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@KennyFarq the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland has the discretion to say now is not the time. That’s the guise of an agreed process to get GFA over the line.
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