Lance Jones

@ElectionMapsUK How on earth are you getting this? The MRP has SNP at 60

My Seat Model: SNP: 51 (-13) RFM: 26 (+26) LAB: 16 (-6) LDM: 13 (+9) CON: 12 (-19) GRN: 11 (+3) Changes w/ 2021.

Holyrood Voting Intention (MRP): Constituency: SNP: 35% (+2) RFM: 19% (-2) LAB: 17% (-1) CON: 13% (+1) LDM: 13% (+1) GRN: 2% (+1) Regional: SNP: 26% (-3) RFM: 22% (+3) LAB: 15% (-1) LDM: 12% (-) CON: 11% (-1) GRN: 11% (+1) Via More in Common, 3 Mar - 26 Apr. Changes w/ 4 Feb - 10 Apr.

@SnpNot @DeanMThomson If you mean Strathkelvin and Bearsden then yes thats definitely in play and could be decided by a few hundred votes either way. Milngavie part of the Clydebank constituency I'd have that down as a solid SNP win.

@DeanMThomson Milngavie as well

I'd be surprised if the SNP held some of these seats, that said, as Luke acknowledges - some of these margins in these seats will be razor thin. For my guess, SNP lose two Edinburgh seats, Inverness, and a few others worth watching.

@kevverage He's good at soundbites though.......

how this guy has a following i will never know - the level of economic illiteracy on display here is astounding

@brexitblog_info @TrevorPTweets former head of the EHRC, totally snooked Zack there with a policy that many on the right actually disagree with re perception of hate etc. The thing is, it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if Zacks supporters now call Trevor a far right zionist. Upside down.

“Don’t try that one on me” Watch as Trevor Philips skilfully cross-examines Zack Polanski. To Polanski the hate marches are “peace marches” & he has no room for anyone else’s view of them. As always with extremists, their own views Trump anyone else’s.

@Glinner @PatricKielty We live in the twilight zone

Oh ok, @PatricKielty is another antisemitic scumbag. NOTED!

@murdo_fraser @ScotTories Which constituencies?

This latest poll has @scottories winning EIGHT constituencies and taking seats off the SNP. We can do better - if just half of those planning to vote Reform in Perthshire North instead vote tactically for me we can take the First Minister’s seat! thetimes.com/uk/scotland/ar…

@KennyFarq Ah right no worries, I'm just a numbers geek! Like to see which constituencies each party is projected to win as the polls (MRP included) appear to be all over the place!

@ford_ford6 Sorry, I misread your tweet. There is no constituency breakdown as this is not an MRP.

Dysfunction of Holyrood’s voting system plain to see in Norstat poll for Sunday Times Scotland. Labour ahead of Reform by four points in constituencies and level on 17 in regions - but Reform wins 19 MSPs to Labour’s 16. thetimes.com/article/7a4c8d…

@KennyFarq I have the times subscription, its not in it

@ford_ford6 Or a subscription!

@StuartGarvin But its PRoGrEsSiVe

Literally illegal for anywhere in Scotland to sell this for less than £13.70. Couldn’t make it up😂

@UKScotBrit Surprised he hasn't been called a far right yoon yet 🙄

Fergus tells it, as it is. "Instead of dealing with the important housework, they are putting all sorts of fancy goods into the shop window to buy people’s votes,” Ewing said. “It is an exercise in cynicism.” Here's his take on the £2 cap on bus fares:- "For the £2 bus fare from Inverness to Glasgow, how much will they have to pay the bus operator?” he said. “Have they considered the impact on rail services? Who’s going to travel by train if they can get there for two quid? What will the loss of revenue be to ScotRail? There are travellers who will certainly choose a £2 option over a £60 option.” If his wee ma could see the state the SNP have become, she would be burling in her grave.

@DevolvedVotes The same company "most accurately" predicted the 2024 GE result, however despite that still overstated the SNP vote by 13 seats. I wouldn't say its set in stone quite yet re thumping SNP majority.

If your MRP shows the SNP winning 66 seats, including every Tory seat, but losing Cunninghame South to Reform, then it's not a good MRP. Yet another expensive MRP which is at odds with all the other expensive MRPs.

@PeterMcCormack And the left are supposed to be on the side of small, independent businesses as well as opposed to the big conglomerates who would inevitably find ways round it to stay in business.

A minimum wage of £15 would end my coffee shop, it would have to close, as would many other businesses. I’ll explain for the economically illiterate. Staff costs are currently half our costs, a £15 minimum wage is actually more than £15 an hour for the company, because you have to add: - 12.07% holiday - Sick pay - Maternity pay if and when required - National insurance - Pension contributions These costs would mean the shop loses money because remember, energy costs are up, rates are up, regulations are up. Now you can pass these costs onto the consumer - that would mean charging a lot more for coffee, people won’t pay it. The likes of Starbucks and Costa can, because they have economies of scale. The independent doesn’t. Now the little socialist will say well this is your fault, if you can’t run a business that can afford to pay its staff properly, but the little socialist has never run a business and does not understand the dynamics. Now I could pay some staff off and fill those hours myself or reduce us to one staff member during certain periods - but this proves the point that a minimum wage costs jobs. There was a time when these jobs were done by kids, perhaps on the weekend, paid a lower wage, no holiday and no silly employment rights. Perhaps they were even paid cash. The dynamic worked and small businesses like this could operate. It was also a great first job. Sadly now it isn’t worth employing entitlement youngsters at this level of pay. So alas, I don’t need the stress, the business would close, a number of jobs would be lost. Economics is about understanding these dynamics, no vibes. The cost of living is not solved through passing on inflation to the business, it is solved by ending high inflation and creating prosperity. This is what socialists don’t understand, they can’t create prosperity, they can only destroy it.

You cannot tell me you watch this video and think the police behaviour needs no explanation.

@ExposedGreens You only need to look at the student vote, of which the Greens are cleaning house. I know those students will grow up and hopefully see sense, but even then they will be replaced by more students with idealistic expectations.

@ExposedGreens I wouldn't go as far as saying its fallen apart as I think they will have "The SNP effect" which is a quasi religious connection to the party come what may. I think their polling numbers will remain elevated.

It’s falling apart for Zack Polanski and the Green Party this week: • Crashed 6% in the polls — a brutal overnight drop that’s wiped out months of gains and left them reeling as voters abandon ship in key battlegrounds. • Councillors arrested over alleged antisemitism — multiple Green councillors now in custody facing serious allegations, piling fresh embarrassment on a party already under scrutiny. • Deputy Leader Mothin Ali urging members to sue his own party — in leaked comments to a ‘Greens for Palestine’ meeting, Ali told suspended candidates to get “serious legal advice” and “start with some class action,” openly putting the party on notice and exposing deep internal chaos. • Reports of a leadership fall-out... insiders say relations at the top have completely broken down, with Polanski’s inner circle fracturing and open briefings against each other leaking to the press. • Called out by the Met Police Chief... the Metropolitan Police Commissioner has publicly slammed the party’s handling of community tensions, warning their approach is making things worse. • Backlash over Jewish ‘perception of unsafety’ comments... Polanski’s remarks dismissing Jewish communities’ very real sense of insecurity as mere “perception” have triggered fury, with Jewish groups and MPs accusing the party of gaslighting. The wheels aren’t just wobbling they’re coming clean off. #TheFallOfTheGreens

@MrTCHarris Will that be @StewartMcDonald be filed under "far right rich reform tory" now?

Infuriatingly sensible stuff from my former nemesis.

Well, Scotland - let's take a look at what you could have won... x.com/stats_feed/sta…

@Jen4Scot Can't see Labour getting above 20 tbh and think your underestimating the Lib Dem seat total as they are in play in a handful of seats. Think SNP and Green will have a comfortable majority between them unfortunately.

Scottish Parliament predictions by seat (based on a few factors, in a 'shy' Reform vote and an under-estimated Labour vote). It's going to be very close whether SNP/ Greens will be able to form. SNP 57 Labour 25 Reform UK 23 Conservatives 10 Green Party 9 Liberal Democrats 5

THEY’RE AT IT AGAIN.. Scottish grown produce stamped with a butcher’s apron. I wanted some new season fruit.. but they had a “Jack” .. so I put them back. No sale today Lidl. Went to Aldi instead.