Ken Somers

@MLiebreich 70TW installed capacity can roughly cover global energy demand (heat, power, mobility), so 2 TW does make a dent

By 2025 there will be 2TW of annual PV manufacturing capacity, 80% in China. That's enough panels to meet an additional 9% of global power demand. Will we see 1TWh of annual installations and shockwaves across the economy, or bankrupt PV manufacturers? ft.com/content/9c53f6…

@peakaustria @Joseph_Browning @tamalitosF omnicalculator.com/physics/wet-bu… I normally use specialised software - the included link might give a good result - did not test it myself though

@kensomers @Joseph_Browning @tamalitosF Okay 👌 will adapt my calculator do you have the algorithm?

Potential deadly Wet Bulb temperatures in Cyprus 🇨🇾Nikosia and media are completely overwhelmed by the new reality of a much warmer world. Chaos ahead most editors ✍️ have not done the hard lifting of a much warmer and more material constrain world and how to navigate through this.

@Joseph_Browning @tamalitosF @peakaustria Wet bulb should always be lower than actual temperature, x-axis on top is most likely wet bulb, temperatures in the table are measured temperature values. In that case, your situation should be OK

@tamalitosF @peakaustria I'm not sure I'm understanding this chart. New Orleans (where I lived for 4 years) has, in July and August, an average humidity of 80% and an average high of 33C. That's in the black for an two average summer months.

@JohnSmillie42 Ethanol can already be turned into ethylene (plastics) at industrial scale (Braskem) - price of ethylene per ton is around 50% higher than kerosene Annual C-demand for plastics is roughly similar to annual kerosene C-demand

@bannister_28644 @Climatehope2 soltis.be/en/news/recycl… Why a paper when companies already do it and you can contact them directly?

"Solar is now being installed faster than any technology in history." By the early 2030s, there will probably be more solar capacity installed than the capacity of EVERYTHING else combined. reneweconomy.com.au/solar-is-now-b…

@DaveThroup @CopernicusEU By mass, it is a factor 4. Mass of water on planet is roughly a million times that of air. Average ocean depth around 3.6 km. Even when only top 10meter heat up, impact of water will be orders larger. engineeringtoolbox.com/amp/specific-h… en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmospher… oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/oceandep….

Parts of the Mediterranean are 7°C above normal. 7 bloody degrees! Remember it takes more than 3000 times as much heat to warm water by 1°C than it does for air. Graphic courtesy @CopernicusEU

@JomauxJulien mckinsey.com/industries/ele…

So, yes, solar is great. It will make a huge impact in our energy system (basically removing anything else when the sun is shining). But it does not mean that it would be easy to have a solar-powered world. That world depends on many other things! 6/6

Is solar so cheap that we do not need subsidy to expand forever? Can it keep going growing forever now? Well, the potential solar penetration does not depend only on solar anymore in my opinion. It depends on our ability to actually consume that power. 1/6

@JomauxJulien Did you include the price of CO2? Also might be single stage gas turbine at 25-32% efficiency. Combination of these two might get you close.

Nice little peak price tomorrow in Germany. 174 €/MWh at 6PM. This is more than 6x the current price for natural gas, probably some other costs are included in the selected bids (start-up costs, etc.).

@Markinterested @casakleinhuis @BrentToderian @JanineBontenbal @JBPssx There references indeed are suboptimal - if you use google you quickly find the original data pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29677686/

@kensomers @casakleinhuis @BrentToderian @JanineBontenbal @JBPssx Perhaps I'm not reading that right but I see no references qnd lots of unfounded stats and ads, appears highly untrustworthy.

Paris definitely wasn’t always this way. This is very recent. It wasn’t magic. It just took leadership. Your city could choose leadership too. Great pic via @JBPssx

@casakleinhuis @Markinterested @BrentToderian @JanineBontenbal @JBPssx gitnux.org/bicycle-helmet….

@Markinterested @BrentToderian @JanineBontenbal @JBPssx How safe is it without a helmet? (Honest question)

@JomauxJulien mckinsey.com/industries/ele…

Impressive 15 days in Spain (and Portugal). The average price at 10 €/MWh, while 1.33 €/MWh between 11 AM to 5 PM. Not great for the capture rate of solar (and any producers). linkedin.com/feed/update/ur…

@MLiebreich “Stap voor stap” - hoping to already get the concept accepted that there is difference between firm and opportunistic electricity consumption ;-)

@kensomers Now do nodal pricing! Instead of playing catchup, you could provide thought leadership :-)

@MLiebreich Hi Michael, you might find this publication interesting. mckinsey.com/industries/ele… Best regards, Ken

@solar_chase You might want to include industrial heat demand into your models as cheap solar allows for arbitrage on heat and we consume more heat than power

That's why our forecasts aren't higher; already by 2030 they imply free power in sunny hours in many places. And that's why blind extrapolation forecasts, especially those that don't bother to split by country, are not useful.

My team get criticism for our solar forecasts being too low (and sometimes some for being too high). People think the new build should keep growing at >30%. We forecast just below 6TW cumulative PV capacity in 2030. Total world *power* capacity at end of 2022 was about 8.5TW...

@MLiebreich Feels more like a pilot plant that is marketed as a full solution - 15 kton/year is nothing - a small commercial unit should aim at the minimum for 500 kton/year The idea of reducing iron ore to metallics using local renewables is a good one though, bulk transport is easy/cheap

15,000 tonnes is 0.0008% of annual primary steel production globally. Even the "ultimate goal" of 1m tonnes per year is only 0.05%. I'm all for climate action and even more for investment in Africa, but this is just #IndustrialEcotourism. …usinessinsider-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/africa.bus…

@Energy4Europe So roughly enough to make half of the EU plastic production from biogenic carbon

#Biomethane is a sustainable alternative to fossil gas and can play a significant role towards achieving the EU energy ⚡️ and climate objectives. The #REPowerEU plan outlines a biomethane production target 🎯 of 35 bcm/year by 2030. Learn more 📹 europa.eu/!99v6m6

@MmayM62 @James_BG It is around 150-200kton natural gas

And then where do you get the fossil fuels from, pray tell? An orchard?

@volatrader @solar_chase @jasonandrade Industrial heat is 20% of global energy demand - same size as global electricity demand - combined with intermittent renewables thermal storage forms a strong grid stabiliser and cheap source of future heat

@solar_chase @jasonandrade This isn't about electricity - steam turbines are incredibly inefficient - this is about direct heat storage for processes that require heat. It enables you to use electricity for heat when you have a surplus of regenerative electricity.

I wondered what a "heat battery" was and it turns out... it is a big brick. That you can make hot using electricity. (And has embedded pipes in it, I think, so you can get hot water out easily).