Kerberos007

food & energy are volatile series MoM but are very important in CPI calculation YoY. from below chart: $WTI crude futures started moving up in July which would fuel the energy inflation & everything dependent upon the energy with on-going Putin-war. if Powell pivots too soon?

with the current massive debt-driven economy & stock markets 1) tulip/bubble valuation 2) complacency in equity mkts & $VIX 3) excessive risk-taking & over-leveraging 4) might work in ZIRP & QE 4) very few Zombie stocks could survive in a high rate regime > 5.75% for a few Qs

pivot or rate cut will never happen unless 1) economy is in a deep "deflationary" recession or 2) a black-swan or a credit-event suddenly emerges (like 2008 Lehman & Pandemic) or 3) markets tanked in anticipation of worsening economy & black-swan event otherwise, rates = up

Kerberism😉 fake Ponzi pumps have consequences: the higher the Ponzi pump the bigger & fatter the turkeys the greedier & more over-levered the mooner & late-bulls the stickier the inflation the angrier the Fed & Powell the HIGHER the peak-rate the harder the dump & liquidation

FOMC rate decision on Wednesday: current rate = 5 to 5.25% CME FedWatch: with 98.9% probability 25bps rate-hike to 5.25 to 5.5% with 1.1% probability 50 bps rate-hike = 5.5 to 5.75% still non-zero probability. Kerb predicted since 2022: terminal rate ~= 5.5 to 6% in 2023

shocking? nothing matters, who cares? the PonziGPT just ramp the futures up breaking EU PMIs Plunge As German Manufacturing Collapses to contraction @ 48.9; Inflation Remains 'Sticky' contraction + inflation = stagflation the new normal the PonziGPT deems this as Bullish?😉

even with $TSLA $NFLX & $TSMC earnings out, overnight $SPX futures still super quiet and boring. someone is controlling the futures market so as not to allow more than 10-point drops overnight. this is getting predictable & mundane. why? waiting for the big rug-pull?

this week: 1) July OpEx week 2) earnings week 3) huge OpEx Gamma but with, 1) super low volume 2) super suppressed $VIX strange/unusual market behavior? or staged/controlled by the PonziGPT for a stealthy reason? conspiracy?🤣 you decide.🧐

yesterday after hour & over-night mkt $SPX is a flat line +- 3 points range. no pulse. super productive "price-discovery" market. something is terribly wrong with the PonziGPT which controls every single tick in the futures market.

ZH- Why The Sell-off In Bank Stocks Despite Solid Earnings 3 for 3 banks beating and taking guidance higher and now banks -2%. Even best-in-class prints like JPM flat on the day. - most good news is priced in - upside is limited - if bad news? - buy the rumor, sell the news.

hmmm St. Louis Fed Pre. Bullard, a hawk at the Fed who pushed for aggressive rate hikes to curb inflation, will leave the Fed on 14 Aug to join Purdue's business school he has recused himself from his monetary policy role & other related duties & has ceased all public speaking

U.S. Gross Federal Debt to GDP ratio = 130% at the end of 2022 how much % of these debts went to stock markets to save the zombies & the planet? moral-hazard encouraging excessive risk-taking & over-leveraging then rug-pull like 2021 tech wreck, 2008 GFC, 2020 pandemic and 2022

super bullish???😉 US Federal Debt Interest Payments About To Hit $1 T in contrast U.S. spent $877B on national defense in 2022; Defense spending accounts for 12% of all federal spending U.S spends more on national defense than the next 10 countries combined very productive🤣