Key Sole
3.1K posts
Fertilizer shortages begin to bite: Wheat farmers in Australia are paring back plantings due to concerns over fertilizer supplies amid the war in Iran. Farmers are weighing sowing less wheat and more oilseeds and pulses, such as lentils, canola and barley, in hopes of better returns. The planting decisions farmers make now could weigh on global supply into 2027, with Australia's winter plantings set to begin within weeks. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
🗣️ Iranian Parliament Vice Speaker: “We will not restore the Strait of Hormuz to its previous state, and we will not negotiate with a liar who has no honor, humanity, or conscience — something proven in two previous negotiations. The Islamic Republic of Iran, backed by its people, stands firmly on its military capabilities. If Donald Trump is truthful, let him declare who he has negotiated with — his threats are nothing but lies. We will not negotiate with the devil, and we will continue to defend our nation in accordance with the directives of the Supreme Leader.”
The energy minister of South Korea announced plans to request that 50 major oil consumers reduce their usage.
Commentary last week highlighted the growing attention on the Taroom Trough and its potential to emerge as a significant new Australian oil province. For $OMA / $OMA.ax , it is another reminder of the scale and strategic importance of the basin. @couriermail
BREAKING. Thirty-six hours ago President Donald Trump said “obliterate.” This morning he said “productive conversations.” The question every trader, diplomat, and general is asking: what broke between Saturday night and Monday morning? Six things broke simultaneously. Not one of them was Iranian. First. The bill arrived. The Pentagon requested over $200 billion in supplemental funding. The war cost $11.3 billion in six days, $16.5 billion in twelve. At $1.38 billion per day and accelerating, congressional resistance to the supplemental is real. The money that was supposed to fund “days not weeks” now needs a vote that may not pass. Second. The Fed killed the rate-cut thesis. On March 18, the Federal Reserve held rates at 3.5 to 3.75 percent and revised its 2026 PCE inflation forecast to 2.7 percent from 2.4, citing the Iran war energy shock. The dot plot shows one cut in all of 2026, down from two. Every basis point of delayed easing is pain for housing, credit, and the Magnificent Seven. The war that was supposed to demonstrate strength is demonstrating inflation. Third. The allies revolted politely. Twenty-two countries signed up to coordinate on Hormuz. Zero committed a warship during combat. Japan is releasing strategic reserves. South Korea’s Kospi has fallen 12 percent. Europe’s gas surged 35 percent after Qatar’s LNG was knocked offline & declared force majeure up to 5 years. Trump called NATO “cowards” and got a press release. The coalition of the willing is a coalition of the waiting. Fourth. TSMC sent the signal. Taiwan imports nearly 97 percent of its energy. Its LNG reserves cover 11 days. Qatar supplies a third of global helium, which TSMC needs for chip fabrication. The helium is bottled behind a closed strait. Every Nvidia GPU, every Apple chip, every AI cluster depends on a fab in Hsinchu counting its gas in single-digit days. The Magnificent Seven have shed hundreds of billions as energy rotation crushes tech. Fifth. Birol named the damage. The IEA chief told Australia this morning that 40 energy assets across nine countries are severely damaged, global oil supply has fallen 11 million barrels per day, the crisis exceeds both 1970s shocks combined, and no country is immune. He named fertilisers and helium as interrupted flows. The man who runs global energy security called the war Trump started the worst energy crisis in modern history. Sixth. The midterms. Gas prices are up 93 cents per gallon. Sixty-six percent of Americans call this a war of choice. Sixty percent disapprove. Fifty-seven percent say it is going badly. The numbers that matter in Washington are not barrels per day. They are approval ratings in swing states where voters fill their tanks every Tuesday. Six pressures. One post. President Trump did not discover diplomacy. He discovered arithmetic. The 48-hour ultimatum was a threat. The 5-day pause is a confession that the threat’s consequences were worse than its target. Destroying power plants would have sealed the strait permanently, triggered Ghalibaf’s promise to “irreversibly destroy” Gulf desalination and energy infrastructure, crashed TSMC’s supply chain, spiked inflation past 3 percent, and handed the midterms to the opposition on a platter of $7 gasoline. The pause is real. The relief is not. The strait is still closed. The 40 assets are still damaged. The fertiliser is still blocked. The planting window is still closing. The five-day clock is already ticking. The molecules do not negotiate. The molecules wait. Full deep dive analysis: open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
Santos has just shut down its flagship Barossa #LNG project (3.7 Mtpa at Darwin LNG) for a planned outage lasting several weeks.. barely got going (first cargo only in Jan after endless delays) & now offline right as the world faces a brutal gas crunch.. perfect timing (not).. this just accelerates gas-to-coal switching as power gen economics are screaming coal #OOTT #gas #energy #coaltwitter $STO.AX $WDS.AX $YAL.AX $WHC.AX $NHC.AX $TER.AX $BTU $CRN boilingcold.com.au/santos-shuts-d…
