kibfromcali

Anyone interested in giving feedback/ideas for Siege 18-0, please comment here! I’ll be editing the site tonight to move some ratings around, add a rare historic team wheelspin, etc. @TOPoderosa_ @XTSXLeader @siegeohio @JazzmanCasts

@DarkBenf @FCB_Xabhi Well, yes. The average US state has an area of 76,000 sq miles, and the average European country has an area of around 50,000 sq miles. Our states are large enough in area, economic output, and population to be weighed on the same scale as European countries.

@kibfromcali @FCB_Xabhi Oh so now the comparison is to the size of a state not the size of a country. Very well. This stadium in Barcelona holds 99,354 in a region of only 8.2 million people.

What on earth is this stadium man 😭 How can any stadium in Europe even compete. USA are on another level when it comes to this

@DarkBenf @FCB_Xabhi

@DarkBenf @FCB_Xabhi This stadium in Ann Arbor holds 107,601, in a state of only 10.1 million people

@Rishibets @AustenJ248855 @ShakeNTaake not a spurs fan, I fw wemby, but I had no horse in that race lol, it was just a dumb bet based on your egotistical assumption of a full %age point edge

@kibfromcali @AustenJ248855 @ShakeNTaake I just realized. You were just triggered because you're a spurs/wemby fan and I was betting against wemby. So you're just crying and looking for reasons to hate, no matter how dumb they sound. Now it all makes sense

This the last time I tweet about this I swear. Job done

@Rishibets @AustenJ248855 @ShakeNTaake “an edge” ≠ a full percentage point edge

@kibfromcali @AustenJ248855 @ShakeNTaake Why do I need evidence or justification for my edge. You came in here spouting nonsense about how dumb it was even if I did have an edge.

@Rishibets @AustenJ248855 @ShakeNTaake I’m not saying you should have or would have betted it, I’m saying your edge is not a full percentage point, and to think it is shows how little you understand about this

@kibfromcali @AustenJ248855 @ShakeNTaake Why would you arbitrarily choose a 98.1% probability? How dumb are you that you think I was betting a 98% because I thought it was 98.1%? Nobody would bet that lmao

@Rishibets @AustenJ248855 @ShakeNTaake nope, I just understand odds

@kibfromcali @AustenJ248855 @ShakeNTaake I feel like you're just narrow minded because you can't comprehend how losing a 100k bet wouldn't make someone broke. I've lost 100k bets before and I'll lose more of them.

@Rishibets @AustenJ248855 @ShakeNTaake I gave you a 0.1% edge in that calculation; your real edge is probably zero, so I was being too nice, you should have bet NOTHING

@kibfromcali @AustenJ248855 @ShakeNTaake You said Kelly would tell you to bet 3-4%. Incorrect.

@Rishibets @AustenJ248855 @ShakeNTaake Because I wasn’t. You said the probability was 99% with no evidence and no justification. My kelly calculation was based on the implied probability generated by the market, 98%, and my GENEROUS 98.1% actual which I granted you

@kibfromcali @AustenJ248855 @ShakeNTaake Why are you ignoring the fact that you were wrong about what the Kelly rec would be?

@Rishibets @AustenJ248855 @ShakeNTaake they take it millions of times across uncorrelated events so the variance disappears and they just collect. you can’t borrow the logic of a business that runs a million bets, the variance on a single 98 cent bet at $110k is enormous relative to the payout even if the EV is +

@kibfromcali @AustenJ248855 @ShakeNTaake Your whole point was it doesn't matter if its +ev, no rational person would ever bet 100k to win 2k. But sportsbooks do that all the time. So you're wrong.

@Rishibets @AustenJ248855 @ShakeNTaake name one thing in this sentence that is empirically incorrect

@kibfromcali @AustenJ248855 @ShakeNTaake It's impressive how many different things you can be so confidently wrong about. What's next?

@Rishibets @AustenJ248855 @ShakeNTaake if the market says 98% your edge is whatever you think you know that they don’t. if you’re just agreeing the probability is 98% then your edge is zero and kelly says bet nothing. you’re assuming you had a 1% edge over the market without justifying it at all lmao

@kibfromcali @AustenJ248855 @ShakeNTaake You clearly know nothing about Kelly. On a -5000(98c) with an actual probability of 99% Kelly would tell you to bet 49% of your bankroll. You also don't know what my bankroll is. You're just continually pivoting to new arguments - now you're just saying I overbet

@Rishibets @AustenJ248855 @ShakeNTaake on a sportsbook the house sets the line and takes a cut both ways so they’re always plus EV, kalshi isn’t a sportsbook

@kibfromcali @AustenJ248855 @ShakeNTaake Then why do sportsbooks make those bets all the time? (because they're accepting bets on longshots willingly)

@Rishibets @AustenJ248855 @ShakeNTaake risking $110,000 to make $2000, even if the odds are 1/1000, is a bet that no rational person makes

@kibfromcali @AustenJ248855 @ShakeNTaake Ah nice moving the goalposts. Cool. Still - wrong again. A HYSA is not giving me 2% over ONE MONTH, nowhere close to that

@Rishibets @AustenJ248855 @ShakeNTaake I understand it, I just think risking $110,000 to make $2000 is inherently stupid; you can easily make that much in a HYSA with ZERO risk, so its just a needless bet you moron

@kibfromcali @AustenJ248855 @ShakeNTaake This idiotic logic could be applied to literally any bet. "if you had a million dollars and some own offered to make that 2 million, but there's a 1 in 2 chance of losing everything, would you take that deal" it's like you don't understand the most fundamental concept of betting.

@Rishibets @AustenJ248855 @ShakeNTaake You might be the least intelligent human being I’ve ever encountered

@kibfromcali @AustenJ248855 @ShakeNTaake Yeah and I bet it because I didn't believe there was a 1 in 50 chance of me losing dumbass... You think I'm betting things that I think are exactly fair odds?

@Rishibets @AustenJ248855 @ShakeNTaake those are the implied odds

@kibfromcali @AustenJ248855 @ShakeNTaake Just realized you said 1/50 chance you lose. No why would I make that bet?

Thought this was about Luka for a second