Jay Kilroy

Likely a lot of it. It was a hedge fund hotel and the convert shorting does not help

if par can win a Tier 1 in Q2 and also cite progress with mcd, investors will regret selling par down here $PAR

Does anyone know Bridg’s ARR that it will bring to PAR? I have not seen it disclosed.

@matthewmmww @Aggie_CIO Finish the sentence

@Aggie_CIO Don't know who needs to hear this but $PAR IS DOWN A MONTH BEFORE XXXXXXX XXX XXXXXX

@Vienna13Capital Gotcha. That is not as punitive as I feared as any buyer would assume a conversion upon purchase. But the overall insularity of the Board still stands, particularly given Voss’ long term ownership and overt support of Savneet. His credibility is on the line

@kilroy_jay sec.gov/Archives/edgar… big picture they become due upon fundamental change (i.e. sale or change of control)

I guess PAR’s Board has disregarded Voss’ request from about a month ago $PAR

@Vienna13Capital Sorry for my remedial questions but I have not had time to read the document. What anti-sale provisions did they incorporate in the convert language?

@kilroy_jay exactly what you said, that they seem to have disregarded Voss' proposal. otherwise they wouldn't attach conditions in the convert that make it way harder to sell the company (due to change of control clauses) only a brief time after the Voss engagement

@Vienna13Capital You can tell what?

@kilroy_jay I guess you can tell from the covenants they attached to the recent convert

$PAR cardlytics overhang cleared today.

@ArrakisGlobal @anidesh7 You have to be careful with such a generalizations as one HF I follow that owns a good bit of BUR (3% weight) also has 65% of their portfolio in a TLT 20-yr short - look at this chart since March 1. Often times, it washes out

$BUR Dark arts of the HF business … look at who is big in BUR, find their other positions, see if they are large portion of the float / big shareholder and short those names. This is going to force redemptions/ cross shareholding liquidations. Predator vs prey.

@BrokenMoats This is great news for NRC as they are expected to gain share from PG/Qualtrics. Please refer to their press release from just a week ago. Their sales growth is accelerating in Q1 versus the prior five quarters. The owners of NRC are NOT looking for liquidity.

Tough read through for $NRC which has been going up aggressively reversing their post earnings blowup. Very challenged business in the ai world (evidenced by press ganey buyout concerns) and an owner of NRC who is looking for more exit liquidity (see filings). Squeeze and relatively tight liquidity but still flagged - bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

@LaughingH20Cap @Klad_blok Your Q4 letter references low ball bids at $6 to $7 per share; do you think the Board/holders care about a $4 stock price or will they tolerate it sitting here for a year plus while things play out?

@kilroy_jay @Klad_blok think board thinks delay stinks too but inflection will be worth the wait. When inflec comes will redeem the Pfd refi the Alcon debt, & otherwise fix the cost of capital. Board members own 30+% of equity so will do what is best for equity value. Agree hard to do this in public.

I know $LFCR earnings and outlook aren’t great. But even then, paying ~14 EBITDA for a CDMO at 20% capacity with reasonable probability of a buyout in the next 3 years doesn’t look that bad does it?

@LaughingH20Cap @Klad_blok But isn’t the inflection 2028/2029?

@LaughingH20Cap @Klad_blok So holders cannot “put” them to the company? Do you think think that he Board revisits strategic alternatives or the concept of being a public company given the long term nature and poor cost of capital?

@Klad_blok delayed inflection stinks but I think Mr mkt wrongly thinks $LFCR needs to raise equity to redeem the Series A pfd. However, the pfd is designed to PIK. That is a real cost, but nowhere near as bad as an equity raise here. the biz is already won so the inflection is still coming.

@Act2Capital The problem is that they ran a process in March 2023 and contacted 75 buyers and concluded the stand-alone value was higher. Wonder if enough has changed in three years to run another one.

@kilroy_jay At least issue a “exploring strategic alternatives” press release.

At <$200 market cap it might be prudent for $LFCR to put itself up for sale here.

@Act2Capital If you look at the shareholder roster, it is populated with hedge funds who I suspect have grown impatient. Also the board consists of several buysiders who joined in a cooperative agreement in 2022. It’s time

@kilroy_jay Exactly. That can only persist for so long. Dozens of buyers would step up at even a slight premium to replacement cost.

@bayblackdiamond @Attung_E @PAR_Tech @PointB True, but now you have a company selling for roughly 10x 2027 EBITDA growing mid-teens plus assuming no major Tier 1 wins and no near term liquidity refi risk. One could argue the risk premium just went down significantly.

@kilroy_jay @Attung_E @PAR_Tech @PointB Terms worse than expected. Net dilution more like 18% (but obviously only if stock is above $20, which it was a week ago). Could be worse, but was not a move of strength.

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@bayblackdiamond @Attung_E @PAR_Tech @PointB The price action is a massive overreaction don’t you think?

@Attung_E @PAR_Tech @PointB That said, this stock has been a total disaster

@Aggie_CIO What do you think of the convert issuance?