Kim Mandix 🇪🇺🇺🇦🇩🇰

New - Generic Ballot poll 🔵 Democrats 55% (+15) 🔴 Republicans 40% 🔵 Biggest lead for Democrats 🟤 Trump approval: -20 Atlasintel #A - RV - 5/7

The administration still fundamentally misunderstands the Iranian regime. @BarakRavid reported that White House officials were surprised by Tehran’s response to President Trump because the message they received through mediators was supposedly very different. But what exactly did they expect? Did they really believe the Iranian regime, at a moment when it feels strategically confident, assumes Trump is under greater pressure than they are, and believes it still controls a critical artery of the global economy through the Strait of Hormuz, would suddenly agree to abandon uranium enrichment, curb its missile program, or stop supporting its regional proxies? The gap between how parts of the administration perceive the Iranian regime and the reality of how the regime actually thinks is becoming impossible to ignore. That disconnect is creating growing frustration inside the White House, but more importantly, it reflects a deeper problem: there are no good options left. If Trump is unwilling to move toward a deal close to Tehran’s terms, unwilling to launch a broader military campaign, and impatient with the slow results of maritime pressure and economic containment, then what exactly remains besides another confrontation around the Strait of Hormuz? one that would almost inevitably escalate into direct U.S.-Iran conflict? Iran will not voluntarily surrender its leverage over the Strait. That is a core strategic assumption in Tehran. The administration needs to become far more realistic about the nature of the regime. It must break out of the echo chamber of advisers who either fear telling the president the truth, do not understand Iran, or continue to believe that maximum pressure alone can force capitulation. Anyone who has seriously studied the Islamic Republic understands a basic reality: the regime has no intention of surrendering, regardless of what Trump says or does. Iran’s tolerance for economic pain is extraordinarily high. If the objective is genuine strategic change, then regime change would be required. Every other option may inflict pain and disruption, but it will not fundamentally alter Iran’s long-term strategic behavior, though it will almost certainly impose enormous costs on the global economy. That is the reality. Pretending otherwise does not make it less true. #IranWar‌ #iran