Kitty Ussher

@KarimPalant Very good!

Sparkle with Starmer

Today's @ONS data shows strong economic performance in June, but contains early indicators of possible difficulties ahead ➡️Read our Chief Economist @kittyussher's response here: iod.com/news/uk-econom…

GDP data came in stronger than expected in Q2, but will we achieve the dream scenario of lower inflation while avoiding a recession? Some thoughts here linkedin.com/feed/update/ur…

Top line analysis from the IoD's @kittyussher: "The main story today is that inflation is lower than expected, fueling a narrative that we are through the worst" bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

@HuhneChris More on the impact of Brexit on businesses here: (see iod.com/news/eu-and-tr…)

Can anyone remind me of what has uniquely happened to Britain in recent years that might explain such high inflation? UK 7.9%; USA 3%; Euro-zone 5.5%. #inflation

@HuhneChris Brexit has reduced trade in both directions by increasing its cost. We also have a lag in our inflation data from the operation of the Ofgem price cap. Demand is stronger than expected. The Bank of England was slow off the blocks. And we have higher labour inactivity.

The prime minister's inflation target is now more in sight than it was just 24 hours ago linkedin.com/feed/update/ur…

@kittyussher @kittyussher Kitty also states we need to incentivise businesses to train up existing employees, that are already in work, to help plug skills shortages - and highlights that this is something Metro Mayors & CA’s could assist with

@kittyussher “Skills shortages are consistently in the top 3 of economic concerns… Local leaders across public and private sectors have massive opportunities across high #productivity sectors if they can demonstrate to businesses that they have the #skills there.” #NPEESS23

With 1/3 business owners saying the skills shortage is a top challenge, regional leaders can attract biz if they work together to prove that gap can be closed….HERE. @kittyussher @The_IoD #NPEESS23

@cathynewman speaks to Giles Wilkes, a former economic adviser to Theresa May and Vince Cable; and Kitty Ussher, chief economist at the Institute of Directors. channel4.com/news/when-will…

Fascinating panel discussion on the state of the economy at the CIPR-sponsored @TAForum #TAFBPEx. @kittyussher from the @The_IoD explains “the crazy external environment” is keeping business leaders up at night but most still planing for growth.

@Gregoryboggis @samueltombs The @ONS did suggest the timing of Easter may have affected air fare comparisons, resulting in higher MoM increases in 2023 than 2022.

@samueltombs I meant on the MoM sorry!

Let’s be very clear that the stickiness of CPI inflation in May was not attributable to any of these one-offs: The King's coronation on May 6 Eurovision on May 13 Beyonce’s U.K. concerts, which began on May 17. A short geeky thread:

No denying May's CPI data were awful, but producer price data provide reassurance that the worst is over. Core producer output prices fell 0.3% m/m in May, reducing the three-month-on-three-month annualised growth rate to just 0.8%. Core goods CPI inflation will fall sharply soon

The only question now is not whether, but by how much, will @bankofengland raise rates tomorrow. Pleased to have been quoted in today's @FT discussing this morning's disappointing inflation figures. ft.com/content/a33c3b…

@julianHjessop @asentance @yaelselfin @samueltombs @NIESRorg ....now I know why it was so hard to call!

Calling UK economists: is anyone expecting next week's CPI inflation data (May) to show a rise? My spreadsheet says it would need a month on month rate of just 0.7% to stay flat, and that feels a bit low to me. @julianHjessop @asentance @yaelselfin @samueltombs @NIESRorg

Thanks for having me!

@Janekelly25 Always!

@kittyussher OK thanks! Are you carrying on with your maths studies?

@kittyussher Really enjoyed the piece in the Times mag about maths. Do you know of any similar courses I could take, few people are worse @ it than me!

@billwells_1 @julianHjessop @samueltombs @asentance @yaelselfin @NIESRorg @ChrisGiles_ @ONS That's helpful, thanks @billwells_1

@julianHjessop @samueltombs @kittyussher @asentance @yaelselfin @NIESRorg @ChrisGiles_ @kittyussher But even if doesn't show up in the stats falling inflation does seem to be showing through in @ons leading indicators. See Table 8 in ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…

@julianHjessop @samueltombs @asentance @yaelselfin @NIESRorg Thanks @julianHjessop this is good to see. Although I was a bit worried that latest @Kantar data on grocery prices suggested any fall was very slight in May - from 17.3% to 17.2% annually.

@samueltombs @kittyussher @asentance @yaelselfin @NIESRorg Agreed... 🤓 I'd just add that #food price inflation should also have fallen in May - hopefully sharply. Indeed, the prices of some staples were already falling outright 👇