Kpler

Kpler is proud to be sponsoring the Australian Energy Producers Conference & Exhibition 2026. As one of the region’s key #energy industry gatherings, the event brings together leaders and stakeholders across the gas, #LNG, and wider energy value chain to discuss the future of energy, market developments, and industry innovation. Our team will be onsite throughout the event and we look forward to connecting with clients, partners, and industry peers. Visit us at Booth 195 to learn more about how Kpler’s market intelligence and data solutions are helping businesses navigate the evolving global energy landscape.

Hormuz tests China’s leverage China is likely to support a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but on terms that preserve its flexibility. The closure threatens global growth, Asian #energy markets and the export demand underpinning China’s economy. Yet Beijing also benefits from discounted Iranian crude and from watching Washington absorb the costs of securing the waterway. The result is a careful balancing act, quiet pressure on Tehran, public calls for stability and little sign of a willingness to assume a US-style security role in the Gulf. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: okt.to/S7VOLU

Bangladesh lifts LNG demand Bangladesh is becoming a stronger source of prompt LNG demand as domestic gas production continues to decline. January output was nearly 8% below Kpler Insight expectations, while full-year 2025 production fell by 1.8 bcm from 2024, reflecting depletion at mature fields and limited upstream investment. Kpler Insight has raised its 2026 Bangladesh LNG demand forecast by 0.2 mt to 7.1 mt. With 0.5 to 0.6 mt of contracted supply affected by Hormuz-related shipping disruption, Bangladesh’s spot procurement is tightening near-term cargo availability and lending support to prompt Asian #LNG prices through the summer buying season. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: okt.to/GgvBx9

Iraqi cargoes face blockade Three tankers carrying Iraqi #crude and fuel #oil are stalled off Oman after using Iran’s controlled Hormuz transit corridor on 10 May, according to Kpler data. The vessels are not Iranian-flagged and are not carrying Iranian cargo, but the route itself matters. OFAC has said payment of Iran’s reported $1 per barrel transit fee may constitute material support under US sanctions law. With the cargoes linked to Iraqi loading points already under US scrutiny, the case highlights how blockade enforcement is expanding beyond cargo origin to include routing, payments and documentation risk. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: okt.to/IlTzcv

Tanker market Q2 outlook As the impact of the war in the Middle East continues to impact commodity flows, join Kpler analysts as we examine the correction across tanker markets, the impact of clean-to-dirty switching, shifting Atlantic and MEG balances, and the key freight risks shaping dirty and clean #tanker rates. ◾ Is the tanker market entering a new post-crisis equilibrium? ◾ What is the limit to Atlantic tanker supply growth? ◾ What a weak #VLCC market means for mid-sizes ◾ How fleet repositioning is reshaping global tanker supply? ◾ Why have clean tanker markets outperformed the dirty sector? ◾ Why clean-to-dirty switching will stop? ◾ Will Asia-Pacific product exports sustained MR demand? Speakers: Matt Wright, Panagiotis Krontiras Register here: okt.to/CgUIBV

Market Insights Forum NYC | Key takeaways Industry leaders came together in NYC to discuss the forces reshaping global commodity and shipping markets — from geopolitical tensions to evolving #energy dynamics. Key takeaways included: ◾Tanker markets at a crossroads: Hormuz risk, shadow fleets, and the Jones Act ◾The #LNG curveball: balancing oversupply expectations with structural shifts in European gas and power markets ◾Disruption across #grain and fertiliser trade flows ◾The global impact of a potential Strait of Hormuz closure Watch the video featuring insights from Min Lee, Customer Success Team Lead at Kpler; Court Smith, Principal Analyst at Kpler; and Reid l’Ansonn Senior Commodity Analyst at Kpler. Thank you to everyone who joined the conversations and shared valuable insights throughout the forum.

Policy holds the key China’s #crude appetite remained weak in April, with imports falling sharply as Beijing directed refiners to prioritise transport fuels over chemicals while tightening refined product export controls. Although the strategy has helped safeguard domestic fuel supply, milder transportation fuel demand, compounded by the above-mentioned factors, resulted in a rapid build-up in #gasoline and diesel inventories, reducing incentives to raise refinery runs. A meaningful recovery in crude demand now hinges on policy direction. Beijing could relax export controls or allow refiners to optimise economically without forcing them to maximise transportation fuel output. Until then, Chinese crude buying is likely to remain capped. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: okt.to/puDgNr

Jet A loophole tested Europe’s decision to permit Jet A into the Jet A-1 supply pool reflects the severity of current aviation #fuel stress rather than a structural market shift. With falling inventories and US to Europe jet flows at record levels, regulators have prioritised supply flexibility ahead of the summer travel season. However, downstream infrastructure, contamination risks, chain of custody requirements and Jet A’s higher freezing point create operational limits, particularly for long haul and polar routes. If disruption to Middle East supply flows extends into winter, the current framework is unlikely to be sufficient. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: okt.to/LxkG4Y

Hormuz reopening falls short The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would mark the start of recovery for Middle East refiners, not a rapid return to normal. Regional #refinery runs dropped to about 6 mbd in April, down roughly 3 mbd year on year, and are expected to remain below pre-war levels for months. Export bottlenecks, storage constraints, insurance frictions and refinery damage mean throughput recovery will likely unfold in stages, with Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait facing the slowest path back. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: okt.to/r4umxl

🇧🇷 We're coming to São Paulo Join Kpler on May 14 for the Kpler São Paulo Market Update, where our experts will explore how Middle East disruptions are impacting Latin American energy markets, from Brazil's #oil boom and Venezuela's market recovery to the sanctions effects reshaping global commodity flows. Walk away with sharper market intelligence, stronger connections, and a clearer view of Brazil's #energy future. Event Details: 🗓️ Thursday, May 14, 2026 🕡 6:30pm - 10:30pm 📍 Praça São Lourenço, São Paulo Register: okt.to/jKky1m

Europe’s gas & power markets may be underestimating Summer 2026 risk. At Kpler’s London Gas & Power Briefing, Ronald Pinto, Principal Analyst – Gas & LNG, Kpler Insight, and Alessandro Armenia, Power Analyst, shared insights on LNG supply constraints, gas volatility, renewable overcapacity, and #nuclear flexibility challenges shaping European power markets heading into Q3. Key takeaways: ⚡ Gas remains a major driver of European #power prices ⚡ #LNG market balances have tightened significantly in 2026 ⚡ Renewable growth is increasing balancing complexity and curtailment risk ⚡ Storage recovery remains vulnerable to geopolitical and weather-related risks ⚡ Flexibility will remain critical across European markets this summer Thanks to everyone who joined us in London.

Venezuela crude rejoins markets Venezuelan #crude exports climbed to a seven-month high above 1.05mn b/d in April, more than double January levels, as a new licensing framework. The US imported 400,000 b/d and India 384,000 b/d, with Merey demand strengthening and Europe re-entering the trade. Rising production, storage-led redistribution through the Caribbean and renewed interest from major international companies suggest Venezuela is moving from short-term recovery toward structural reintegration. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: okt.to/xdVygb

Asia’s oil reroute Asia’s four largest Hormuz exposed crude buyers are moving beyond emergency mitigation. China and India secured roughly 90% of average imports in April through substitutions and bypass routes, while Japan and South Korea relied more on strategic reserves. In May, procurement is shifting towards Oman, Yanbu, Fujairah and the Atlantic Basin, including a fivefold rise in Japan’s expected US Gulf Coast intake. The next challenge is not only volume, but grade compatibility. 🖋️ @Yui_torikata Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: okt.to/g5MFo1

Kpler is growing fast — and so is the way we show up. Together with Italian label @ezeta , we’ve created a trio of limited-edition shirts inspired by our DNA: fast, confident, and fierce. Designed to stand out — just like the people behind the company. Because that mindset isn’t just a campaign. It’s how Kpler operates. If that resonates, come build with us ➡️ shorturl.at/VSS3x

The QatarEnergy-operated Q-Flex tanker Mesaimeer has ended two months of idling in the Arabian Sea by moving to Oman’s Qalhat terminal to load #LNG. The vessel is the first QatarEnergy-operated tanker to load outside the Strait of Hormuz since the Middle East conflict began on Feb. 28. Her move highlights how Qalhat’s location on Oman’s eastern coast offers a rare export route that avoids Hormuz, while most laden Qatari vessels remain stranded at or near Ras Laffan. Kpler data show Mesaimeer is expected to load 209,714 cubic metres, though her destination is unclear. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: okt.to/UupjES

Strait of Hormuz | Daily Vessel Crossings As of 30 April, Hormuz crossings halved d/d to seven transits, split between four commercial and three non-commercial movements, with direction broadly balanced at four west-to-east versus three east-to-west. Only two laden west-to-east crossings were recorded, under Pakistani and Comoros flags carrying CPP and dry bulk, while higher-risk tonnage remained limited with just three shadow or sanctioned vessels observed and the rest assessed low-risk. No new physical attacks have been recorded since 22 April as the ceasefire holds, and with permissive passages continuing, most vessels are still using the IMO-regulated traffic separation scheme to reduce collision risk. Stay ahead of market-moving risks with #Kpler’s Risk & Compliance tracker. okt.to/uPaUbn

A quick look back at our latest webinar, Markets in Motion: UAE, OPEC, and the cross-commodity outlook — with a sneak peek of Laura Page (Insight Manager, LNG & Natural Gas at Kpler). From the UAE’s exit from OPEC to shifting quota dynamics and evolving trade flows, our experts unpacked what it all means for global energy markets. Speakers included: Amena Bakr, Matt Stanley, Naveen Das, Ishan Bhanu, Panagiotis Krontiras, and Laura Page. Key discussions covered: ◾UAE’s production strategy post-OPEC ◾Ripple effects across OPEC+ ◾Oil, gas, LNG & tanker market signals ◾Emerging trade flow shifts and market drivers Missed it? Stay tuned for more insights shaping the week ahead: okt.to/v5tfqg

Strait of Hormuz traffic remains tightly constrained As of 29 April, 12 vessel crossings were recorded (+4 d/d), all moving west–east, continuing the pronounced directional imbalance with no return traffic observed. Activity remains below the highs seen earlier this month, pointing to a cautious but steady flow through the Strait. Among them: ◾2 sanctioned vessels ◾1 shadow ballast transit ◾9 low-risk, predominantly non-tanker transits No material escalation in physical threats, but transit behaviour continues to reflect a controlled and selective operating environment. Dry bulk cargoes such as steel, cement and clinker dominated flows, signalling a continued shift away from tanker-led movements. Access remains sensitive to broader geopolitical dynamics, with daily fluctuations reflecting caution rather than a full recovery. Note: Figures may be subject to minor revisions due to ongoing data validation and backfill. Stay ahead of market-moving risks with #Kpler’s Risk & Compliance tracker. okt.to/ybaDVG

Oil market rebalances under strain Sixty days into the Strait of #Hormuz disruption, flows remain near minimal levels, down from about 20 Mbd to close to 1 Mbd in April. The market response has centred on supply curtailments and refinery run cuts, supplemented by modest rerouting, early demand erosion and inventory drawdowns. These measures are redistributive rather than additive, underscoring limited system flexibility. While a gradual recovery may begin from June, the rebalancing is incomplete, leaving the global oil market tighter and increasingly reliant on inventories and demand adjustment. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: okt.to/ja4Xfn