Keith Teare

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Keith Teare

Keith Teare

@kteare

CEO & Founder at SignalRank. Previously founding investor at TechCrunch. Publisher of That Was The Week

Palo Alto, CA Katılım Mayıs 2007
2.6K Takip Edilen6.1K Takipçiler
Keith Teare
Keith Teare@kteare·
@danouc @uPeterKris We have developed a selection engine that rejects the bottom 93% of series b rounds. It is 87% accurate in prediction that a round will not deliver at least 5x MOIC in 5 years. It is ML trained on a@proprietary heuristic I developed myself.
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peter kris (🔮,🔮)
peter kris (🔮,🔮)@uPeterKris·
I was in Silicon Valley and the new fund by @kteare is very intriguing. It's a smart structural arbitrage, where the fund allocates to series-B rounds, but use series-A investors pro-rata rights. Series-A funds are generally lacking liquidity, so they don't exercise those rights. There are billions sitting in unexercised follow-on clauses. If the round is oversubscribed for top startup, you can get in more easily. It was said the series-A funds can get DPI this way, which I didn't understand how? Maybe through some partial secondary structure. My first thought was this is just an Opportunity fund style, but this is more horizontal play. The opportunity funds are just a double down on existing VC fund portfolio, but this new fund can invest horizontally accross many and the best. Bonus on top, the fund will be directly-listed on exchange, so will become publicly tradeable and we can get market sentiment for this. Awesome job, it got me thinking systemically about capital.
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Keith Teare
Keith Teare@kteare·
Great discussion
Andrew Keen@ajkeen

Symbolic Capitalism vs. Symbolic Democracy, by @ajkeen open.substack.com/pub/keenon/p/s… “I don’t know if any rational person ever became a billionaire running a disruptive company.” — @kteare Is capitalism by permission of democracy, or is democracy by permission of capitalism? That’s the question Keith Teare and I have been circling for a while on our weekly tech roundup, and this week it triggered a full-blown discussion of our 21st century economic and political fate. Earlier this week, Vinod Khosla — one of Silicon Valley’s most successful venture capitalists — posted on X that “capitalism is by permission of democracy.” Keith agrees. I’m not so sure. My sense is that as AI start-ups approach valuations that rival the GDP of nation states, the old equation inverts. Governments no longer permit capitalism. Capitalism permits government. The Sam Altmans and Elon Musks of the future, running 10 or $15 trillion dollar startups, won’t lobby politicians. They’ll replace them. Dario Amodei’s confrontation with the US government, then, is a sneak preview of the future. Indeed, as what Om Malik calls a “symbolic capitalist”, Amodei is a good example of the type of engaged capitalist who will usurp traditional politicians. That’s the good news. The bad news is that other examples of our symbolic capitalist masters include Elon Musk and Peter Thiel.

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Peter Walker
Peter Walker@PeterJ_Walker·
MOIC is BS, IRR matters more. @gokulr on Harry's pod is obviously right in the long-term. Short-term...IRR tends to look too good in early years after a couple big markups. Is there truly one venture metric to rule them all? No. Well, maybe DPI. But no.
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Keith Teare
Keith Teare@kteare·
@HarryStebbings FWIW IRR is also BS because it is measuring MOIC/TVPI over time. Neither MOIC or TVPI is equal to real value, it is a paper mark. Only DPI is not BS
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Harry Stebbings
Harry Stebbings@HarryStebbings·
Why MOIC is a BS Metric and IRR Matters More: "Most early-stage firms focus on MOIC, but MOIC is a bullshit metric compared to IRR. A fund can return 7x over 20 years and still only generate a teens IRR. If the go-forward IRR is not compelling, you have an obligation to your LPs to sell at least part of the position." @gokulr Love to hear your thoughts and reflections on this @joshk @MKRocks @honam @infoarbitrage @briannekimmel @NWischoff @pitdesi @nbt
Harry Stebbings@HarryStebbings

Most podcasts are BS because they are fluffy and lack substance. This is the densest, most insightful episode you will listen to this year. @gokulr breaks down the 8 defensible moats you need for your company to be successful in a world of AI. 1. Data (Proprietary and inaccessible) 2. Workflow (Deeply embedded operations) 3. Regulatory (Licenses and contracts) 4. Distribution (Exclusive proprietary channels) 5. Ecosystem (Third-party platform reliance) 6. Network (Marketplace liquidity density) 7. Physical (Infrastructure and atoms) 8. Scale (Low cost through volume) (Links below)

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Meghan Reynolds
Meghan Reynolds@MeghanKReynolds·
Heard from LPs this week: The past 9 months have felt like groundhog’s day - a very small set of deals dominating all LP convos. The fever pitch to access rounds of OpenAI and Anthropic by LPs (and even GPs calling us) at times - has reached levels I’ve never seen in my career. And for good reason. Our rough math suggests that the VC investors’ gross profit on 3 LLMs currently equates to ~70% of ALL VC profits from the previous decade. “This time it’s different” mostly applies to the concentration - never has a tech super cycle declared such a small number of massive winners in such a short amount of time. The LP conversations are now shifting but we’re still on the same companies. LPs now preparing for IPOs and the LLM transition to public mkts - how to access at IPO, how the stocks will trade, liquidity dynamics, etc. 9 months from now will our convos still be focused on the same small group of companies??
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Keith Teare
Keith Teare@kteare·
Can’t say Andrew and I agreed this week. Take a listen.
Andrew Keen@ajkeen

Why Dario Amodei Might Be the 21st Century’s First Real Leader, by @ajkeen open.substack.com/pub/keenon/p/w… @kteare “Whether you like Amodei or not, at least he’s a leader.” — Andrew Keen Dario Amodei is the most interesting man in America right now. Not because he runs a $500 billion company or because he’s suing the Trump administration or because Anthropic’s Claude topped the iPhone charts. But because he’s doing something nobody else in Silicon Valley has the balls to do: he’s acting like a human being in public. He has principles, he states them, and he accepts the consequences. That’s leadership. It shouldn’t be remarkable. In 2026, it is. This week’s That Was The Week is about how America both loves and hates AI. An NBC poll found 60–70% of Americans are concerned about AI — making it even less popular than the Democratic Party (quite an achievement). A hundred planned data centers have been cancelled because of local protests. 10,000 authors published an anti AI manifesto at the London Book Fair this week. Each week, in contrast, a billion people used ChatGPT, but these users often seem oblivious to its weaknesses. So Keith’s AI-generated video for the show was, by universal agreement (including his own), not going to win an Oscar tomorrow. Except for Most Sloppy AI generated video. Every road this week led back to Amodei who is anything but sloppy. He’s become a Rorschach test for the entire industry. Tech progressives Kara Swisher and Scott Galloway are lauding him. The MAGA crowd — including David Sacks, Trump’s AI czar — on the All In podcast are doing the opposite. Keith thinks Dario is a naive CEO making bad business decisions — comparing him to his own doomed battle in the late Nineties against Microsoft’s Steve Ballmer. It’s a fair point. Should a tech CEO really be setting AI policy? Keith’s answer is no — that’s for people like David Sacks appointed by executive, legislative, and judicial branches. I’m not so sure. In an America defined by its dysfunctional political system, we need leaders like Amodei to take ethical stands. If not, then who? The IPO race this year between Anthropic, OpenAI and xAI makes this particularly interesting. I wonder whether Amodei might use the IPO itself to force a public debate that nobody in government is willing to have. Not just about guardrails or weapons — but about what kind of society AI is building and who gets to decide what does and doesn’t get used. Musk, by publicly embracing white racists and other groups of hate, is making his politics clear. Sam Altman, as always, is wearing every hat simultaneously. Amodei, in contrast, knows his hat. Rather than MAGA, it should say: The Most Interesting Man in America. He’s got my vote. Even if he’s not running for office.

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Dan Gray
Dan Gray@credistick·
This, from @kwharrison13, is a solid round-up of thoughts on venture capital, Quistian fundamentalism, and the influence of scale and consensus on private tech investing. (It’s also nice to read something that has a recognisable voice, rather than the generic sprawl of an LLM.)
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SignalRank
SignalRank@SignalRank·
Median global monthly Series B amount raised in $m since Jan 2023
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