Kurt Theobald

I understand that many investors make decisions based on macroeconomic themes and fundamental projections. But if you’re a trader, that type of forecasting is largely irrelevant. The only thing that truly matters in the near term is flow and positioning because those directly and immediately affect asset pricing. Macro and fundamental factors can serve as long-term anchors, but trading based on those ahead of time can be an expensive way to learn patience. Right now, there is nothing in the market’s flow or positioning that suggests a bearish stance. Could news come out in the next five minutes and flip that view? Of course! But as it stands right this second, flows remain resilient. Retail continues to pour into speculative names in the derivatives space, sector-specific rotations are being met with consistent institutional inflows, and large allocators are gradually increasing equity exposure. Meanwhile, tactical speculators have been quick to re-lever on even brief pullbacks. This is all with a large chunk of tactical advisors still underperforming and underweight the benchmark going into year end. And if you don’t buy into that view, then you have to ask yourself one simple question ….why is it that every time the market takes a hit, equity inflows remain steady and resilient? All of this points to one conclusion: the path of least resistance still looks higher. This market has $SPX 7000 written all over it before year-end (given no weird tail event). I know that might be tough for some to hear, but I call it how I see it. Don’t shoot the messenger…..I’m just translating what the market’s already saying.

The Trump administration has agreed to forgive student debt under income-driven repayment programs it had partially blocked, per CNBC.