Aup🅰️rnuen
97 posts
Aup🅰️rnuen
@kushzilla69
can i hit it in the morning ?
marz Katılım Nisan 2012
60 Takip Edilen50 Takipçiler
$ASTS: 🧩 The puzzle pieces are all there
THE SP🅰️CTATOR@The_SPACTATOR
$ASTS: AST SpaceMobile’s Rodrigo Gebrim spoke at Painel Telebrasil Summit 2026 confirming AST SpaceMobile’s involvement in the JV between Verizon, AT&T & T-Mobile. “AST will provide Direct-to-Device coverage in the US in partnership with these mobile operators.”
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$ASTS: 📶AST SpaceMobile will be utilized to bolster/replace "one-bar" of service areas for MNOs
What's the potential of that market?
AI estimates that roughly 15-25% of the geographic area in the US nominally covered by terrestrial cellular networks provides only "one-bar" of service from the best available carrier
The market is MASSIVE
Another Smith Here@1MoreSmithHere
$ASTS JR Wilson, Chief of Networks and Spectrum, talks AST's road map for the evolution of pricing the service. One of my favorite quotes at the end: "It's a very, very significant market opportunity, especially when you start thinking about not just the zero bar, but also the one bar." Credit for video: @peterlindmark
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$ASTS: Clear Street "Update Ahead of 2Q26: Buy the Dip Before the Launch Bottleneck Improves"
Price Target $115
Summary
ASTS has pulled back 50%+ from its $133.86 high on third-party launch-vehicle disruption, not a collapse in D2D demand, technology failure, or lost contracts. June/July gateway milestones demonstrate the MNO pipeline converting to physical infrastructure. As new entrants increasingly threaten incumbent carrier subscriber bases, we believe MNO partners will lean more aggressively into ASTS's direct-to-device coverage solution to protect retention. Key points:
Into 2Q, the $1B revenue goal for 2027 faces pressure as the 45 Blue Bird target moved to 2027, from year-end 2026; we view this risk as already captured in our/consensus at $557M/$779M.
Key topics to monitor on the 2Q26 call include the launch partnerships and/or acquisitions commentary in the July 15 8-K.
Dilution protected to $149.20 via a $96.9M capped call on the $1.15B offering, 135% above spot and well above our $115 PT.
Valuation
At current levels, ASTS trades at roughly 10x our 2029E EBITDA of ~$2B and ~6x our 2029E revenue of ~$3.5B. We maintain our Buy rating and $115 PT, implying 20x 2029E EBITDA which translates to ~12x revenue, with our DCF cross-check including spectrum value supporting ~$110/share.
Key Points
Next Catalyst, Launch Progress: BlueBirds 11-13 could set a launch date in the next several weeks. A successful mission, or any grounded medium to heavy lift rocket returning to market, would be a meaningful sentiment inflection where launch capacity remains the critical bottleneck.
Launch Vertical Integration a Key 2Q26 Theme: The July 15 SEC filing cited partnerships and/or acquisitions to reduce third-party launch provider reliance as a potential use of proceeds. Expect this, alongside any new launch partner announcements, to be a central focus on the earnings call. Source: ASTS 8-K, July 15, 2026
Japan's ~$1B J-LEO Initiative: ASTS and Rakuten Mobile (TSE: 4755, NC) are in discussions on the J-LEO sovereign satellite project, with no assurance the joint venture will be finalized. Look for management to potentially add color or size the opportunity on the 2Q26 call.
Well Capitalized With Runway to Execute: With ~$2.7B in cash prior to the raise plus ~$886.7M in net proceeds from the convertible offering, ASTS is well-funded to navigate launch delays and pursue vertical integration opportunities. The capped call structure leaves our outlook largely unchanged.
Investment Thesis
ASTS is down 50%+ from its $133.86 May high on third-party launch disruption, not a collapse in D2D demand, technology failure, or lost contracts. Any improvement in the launch bottleneck should be a meaningful sentiment catalyst. Meanwhile, our core thesis continues to strengthen as aggressive new entrants threatening incumbent carrier subscriber bases make ASTS an increasingly essential partner. Key points:
50%+ Off Highs, Fixable Not Broken: The drawdown reflects launch-vehicle disruption, not a structural flaw. A Vulcan investigation resolution, New Glenn return to flight, or vertical integration move we believe would confirm investors are buying a temporary constraint at a meaningful discount.
The Commercial Network Effect Is Underappreciated: With ~60 MNO agreements covering 3B + subscribers, ASTS doesn't need to win new carrier relationships, it needs to execute on the existing opportunity. Vodafone (LSE: VOD) Ireland's live emergency call test, Bell's (TSX: BCE) Quebec ground station going operational, and New Zealand gateway approval all demonstrate the pipeline converting to physical infrastructure. The network is being built.
Dilution Protection up to $149.20, Already Above Our PT: The convertible offering includes a $96.9M capped call setting a dilution threshold 11% above the prior all-time high of $133.86 (May 28) and 135% above spot. With our $115 PT below the cap, impact to our model is minimal.
Key Risk to Monitor, Ligado Spectrum Litigation: The Ligado spectrum deal remains stuck in litigation with no assured close. ASTS does not need this spectrum to operate, but we view it as an attractive incremental asset. Our DCF values the core business at ~$86/share, or ~$110/share including ~50% of projected spectrum value pending final regulatory and court approvals.
Maintain Buy Rating and $115 PT
ASTS shares current trade at just under 10x our 2029E EBITDA of $2B which translates to just under 6x our 2029E revenue of $3.5B. We maintain our Buy rating and $115 price target, implying 20x 2029E EBITDA of $2.0B and ~12x revenue. Our DCF cross-check values the business including spectrum at $110 per share.
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$ASTS: Interesting aspect about the AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile Joint Venture. The structure should enable T-Mobile to leverage AT&T's and Verizon's existing definitive commercial agreements with AST SpaceMobile. In exchange for equity and access, T-Mobile will invest cash and certain IP, and contribute to certain spectrum licenses. When the JV goes definitive, if you see T-Mobile contributing any 600-900MHz lowband spectrum you'll know exactly why.
STAY FOCUSED™️
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$ASTS: AT&T feels confident in its strategic partnership with AST SpaceMobile
John Stankey, CEO AT&T:
"Speaking more broadly about satellite and satellite's competition on a directed device, I tried to be pretty deliberate in my comments. We sit here today with everything we need to put the best product in the market. I'm not betting on the next turn of a chip. I don't need any fantastic developments in technology in any way, shape, or form to do what I need to do. I mean, it's not rocket science for what we need to do to be successful in the market. And so we're doing that today, and I think we can build the best converged product today, and we can be in the market and be effective and penetrate today."
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$BAER: Great to see the 2x Spanish scoopers put to work for the summer through mid October
Bridger Aerospace@BridgerAero
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$ASTS: 🚨💵 MNO CAPEX COST SAVINGS STORY UNLOCKED
AT&T CEO John Stankey Q2 Comments:
“I also think that it's possible you could see some shift in serving architectures moving forward in rural areas. I do believe there'll be areas that satellite might serve adequately that allow us to maybe shrink our terrestrial footprint on what I would refer to as poverty sites and sites that sit out there and pick up relatively small amounts of traffic, but provide continuity of connectivity, and that might be able to positively impact our cost structure in those instances, and at the same time, give the customer a really good experience. I do expect rural characteristics of our business to change.”
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$ASTS: say it out loud = GPS BACKUP
T🅾️St 🅰️rs@tomster000
🗞️ AST SpaceMobile's Phone Satellites Are Also Becoming a GPS Backup - $ASTS „The U.S. Space Development Agency and Missile Defense Agency are drawing on the same AST SpaceMobile satellites built to give ordinary smartphones broadband service, using dedicated secure-frequency partitions on the spacecraft to test an alternative source of positioning, navigation, and timing data for military equipment operating where GPS is jammed or spoofed. AST SpaceMobile confirmed the arrangement on July 1, 2026“ Source: cysat.eu/news/ast-space…
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$BAER: Cool video of European Super Scoopers reloading for the fight
(Not Bridger)
Evan Kirstel #B2B #TechFluencer@EvanKirstel
These guys are incredible #aviation
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$ASTS Just posted several roles today, most with Top Secret/SCI (TS/SCI) clearance
Various requirements for "...spectrum awareness, signal analysis... detection, classification, and geolocation activities... sensor data exploitation... situational awareness technologies" 👀
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