Kyledoops

To anyone new coming in to crypto twitter or X, you’ll be faced with the important decision of who to follow & be influenced by. Should you follow me? Am I credible? Have I called it right? I’d like to ask my current followers what they think, read the comments to see if they promote me or not.

In case you’re ignoring it, there’s now an 8% chance of a rate hike in the April FOMC.

One chart won’t show the full picture… but this one is hard to ignore.

So where do we actually stand right now? Headlines still escalating… more strikes, more regions getting pulled in. But the market isn’t really following that script. • Oil pulling back • Metals holding / recovering • Equities… not breaking • BTC still around 70K That disconnect is interesting. Feels like we’re in that phase where things are getting worse on paper… but expectations are already capped. Either the market is right… or it’s about to catch up.

GM opened the app and it’s just F-35s everywhere

Everyone talks about diversification… But during oil shocks, it doesn’t always work the way people expect. Look at history: • 60/40 portfolios down ~11% • S&P 500 down ~15% • Bonds… barely helping At the same time: • Gold +44% • Commodities +39% That’s the shift. Different regime… different winners.

This feels bigger than just a short-term shock. Qatar just confirmed ~17% of its LNG capacity has been taken offline, with repairs estimated at 3–5 years. That’s not a quick fix. Qatar supplies ~20% of global LNG, so you’re suddenly looking at ~3–4% of global supply gone… In a market that was already tight. And heavily relied on by Europe and Asia. But the size isn’t even the main thing here. It’s the duration. Most energy shocks last weeks… maybe months. This one is being talked about in years. That changes how things get priced: • Natural gas • Power costs • Industrial input prices • Inflation expectations This doesn’t feel like volatility. It feels more like a reset in supply.

12/ final thought $SPX hasn’t broken but positioning, credit, energy… all a bit off this is usually how it starts not with price… but with everything around it shifting first

11/ internals lining up • weak breadth • curve flattening • more hedging a lot of things pointing the same way

$SPX still holding up… but underneath it’s starting to feel a bit shaky doesn’t look like a clean market at all right now 🧵

Update on the $BTC bear flag. Structure is still valid for now. And where is the best range to accumulate? Here’s what I’m watching.