Kyro Ventures Research

8/8 — The Kyro Frame RateGain is the rare travel-tech platform where: → The TAM is genuine — combined SAM ~USD 8.8 Bn across DaaS, Distribution and MarTech → The moat is real — world's largest travel intent dataset is hard to rebuild from scratch → The optionality is live — OpenAI/Google ad talks, Agentic ARI, AI voice agents, DMO rebound → The balance sheet is the watch-item — ₹722 Cr net debt, FCF must clear it by FY28 The risk: a 10–12% organic grower carrying acquisition debt, with reported profit still healing. The reward: if cross-sell and AI monetisation land, the moat compounds toward the billion-dollar ambition. FY26 bought the platform. FY27 is the year RateGain has to prove it can sell it. 📌 Educational thread. No buy/sell calls. Discuss; don't act on tweets.

7/8 — The Honest Risks What bulls underweight: ⚠️ Reported earnings went backwardsFY26 reported PAT fell 7% YoY. The growth story is currently a revenue story, not an earnings story. ⚠️ Acquisition-funded balance sheetNet debt ₹722.3 Cr where there was effectively none a year ago. $93.5M loan outstanding (25.2% repaid); deleveraging runs to FY28. ⚠️ Organic growth is ordinary - 12–15% INR / 10–12% USD organic — strip the Sojern optics and this is a moderate grower. ⚠️ Distribution shrank - Distribution revenue fell 12.4% in FY26. Management says it has "bottomed out" — but FY27 guidance there is only mid-single-digit. ⚠️ Integration & execution riskFull customer migration to the unified platform completes only by Q2FY27; 14.7% attrition; CFO is still "Interim." Honest research weighs both sides.

RateGain Q4FY26: The Year It Bought a Moat — Now It Has to Sell It 🧵 Not a recommendation 1/8 While the market cheers RateGain's optically explosive +174.5% Q4 topline, the harder truth is quieter: FY26 was the year RateGain bought a moat. FY27 is the year it has to prove it can sell it — before the debt bill matures. FY26 revenue ₹1,823.6 Cr (+69.4% YoY). Q4 ₹715.5 Cr. Organic growth back to double digits — RG organic revenue ₹311 Cr in Q4, +19.3% YoY. Annualised run-rate now ₹2,850 Cr.

10/10 — The Kyro Frame Shaily is the rare Indian precision-manufacturing platform where: → The TAM is multi-decadal — semaglutide patent cliff opens CY26 in emerging markets, CY32 in developed; device demand is structural and recurring → The moat is genuine — device-of-record lock-in worth 2–3 years and ₹100 Cr+ to displace; 70% of Canada's first filers already captured → The optionality is real — semiconductor trays, consumer electronics, eye applicators, Abu Dhabi scale-up, ₹423 Cr order in hand → The balance sheet funds the ambition — D/E 0.3, ROCE 35.8%, ₹219 Cr cash PAT — though a ₹500 Cr raise is now enabled The risk: a ~70x multiple leaves zero room for line-ramp slips, consumer drag, or dilution. The reward: being the device-of-record before a global patent cliff is a once-in-a-decade position. Shaily doesn't sell the GLP-1 drug. It sells the only way to inject it — and gets paid per pen, for years. 📌 Educational thread. No buy/sell calls. Discuss; don't act on tweets.

9/10 — The Honest Risks What bulls underweight: ⚠️ A frozen order book cuts both ways CMD admitted plainly: "If we can't supply enough, then there is a risk." Locked orders convert execution slips directly into customer-supply risk. ⚠️ The new lines still don't run at speedThe March line runs ~34 of 80 parts/min — ~45% efficiency. Rejections improved 30% → 8%, but FY26 volumes (~23.5 Mn) undershot the ~26 Mn guided. CMD now pegs the investment-to-commissioning cycle at 18–24 months, up from 12. ⚠️ The innovator deal everyone wants is unsignedAsked directly about commercial engagement with innovator GLP-1 companies: "No, not yet." The highest-margin upside is still a conversation, not a contract. ⚠️ Premium valuation, explicit dilution door~70x trailing earnings after a ~60% one-year run. The ₹500 Cr enabling resolution — framed as an annual affair — formally opens the door to equity dilution. ⚠️ Consumer is genuinely strugglingConsumer -9% in FY26, -31% in Q4, still ~52% of revenue. Polymer volumes -28% in Q4. Half the business is carrying a soft leg. Honest research weighs both sides.

Shaily Engineering Plastics (Q4 & FY26) 1/10 While the market argues over which pharma giant wins the obesity war, one Indian company quietly became the thing that delivers the drug. FY26 was the year Shaily's semaglutide pens went live — commercially launched in Canada, first-ever US tentative approval, EMA nod for Teriparatide. Revenue ₹991 Cr (+26%) | PAT ₹170 Cr (+83%) | Healthcare mix 21% → 40% in twelve months. The picks-and-shovels thesis just got real. 🧵

10/10 — The Kyro Frame The PEB sector is the rare theme where two very different businesses can both be structurally interesting: → The TAM is multi-decadal — PEB penetration in India is still only low single digits; new-age sectors (renewables, data centres, semiconductors, EV) are pulling demand → The moat is real but different — EPACK competes on speed and capex aggression; Interarch on 40-year relationships and value-chain depth → The optionality is genuine — EPACK: West India + sandwich panels; Interarch: heavy structures + North America exports → The balance sheets diverge — EPACK is de-levering fast; Interarch is net-cash but must fix working capital The risk: both are capacity bets that need the demand cycle to hold, and both run thin-ish margins. The reward: two ways to play the same multi-decade shift from concrete to steel. One is the challenger compounding on speed. The other is the incumbent compounding on trust. The sector is big enough that the debate isn't "which" — it's "what kind of PEB exposure do you want." 🗺️ We've just added a full PEB sectoral mind map to the Kyro Library — the structure, players, and demand drivers behind this thread, in one view. 📌 Educational thread. No buy/sell calls. Discuss; don't act on tweets. Follow @kyroventures for more.

9/10 — The Honest Risks What bulls of either name underweight: ⚠️ Steel price pass-through is incompleteEPACK got increases on ~80%+ of contracts — Nikhil Bothra admitted "100% is not pass-through." Q4 margins fell ~70-80 bps. ⚠️ Interarch's cash flow turned negativeFY26 operating cash flow went negative — debtors and inventory rose as large orders (₹100 Cr+) brought milestone-based payments. ⚠️ Both are building capacity ahead of confirmed demandIf the capex cycle slows, ~2,20,000 T (EPACK) and a ₹3,500 Cr revenue base (Interarch) become utilisation risk. ⚠️ EPACK's PAT margin is thinJust ~6.1% in FY26; management guided only ~6.5% for FY27 even after the debt paydown. ⚠️ The labour shortage — flagged by the incumbent itselfNanda named it the "biggest challenge that India will face" — site-worker availability, made worse by elections and migration. Honest research weighs both sides.

THE PEB DECODE: EPACK PREFAB vs INTERARCH - Q4/FY26 1/10 While the market lumps every steel-building stock into one "PEB trade," Q4FY26 concalls revealed two very different machines: One is a young challenger compounding at 36% and chasing share. The other is a 40-year incumbent moving up the value chain and rationing its own order book. Same sector. Different playbooks. 🧵 🗺️ We've just added a full PEB sectoral mind map to the Kyro Library (kyroventures.com) — the structure, players, and demand drivers behind this thread, in one view. 📌 Educational thread. No buy/sell calls. Discuss; don't act on tweets. Follow @kyroventures for more.