SJL

171 posts

SJL

SJL

@law70437

Investor in some big, stable stuff and some small, volatile stuff. Still trying to get the balance right.

England Katılım Temmuz 2023
67 Takip Edilen33 Takipçiler
SJL
SJL@law70437·
@Ruthyrururu Thank you Ruth. Indeed, Avacta's potential to bring kinder treatments to market could be game-changing.
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ruth@Ruthyrururu·
@law70437 Sorry to hear that SJL. I’m here too for similar reasons. Even if they can’t offer a cure at least quality of life and more time is priceless when people suffer so terribly with current treatments.
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SJL@law70437·
Back here now after some months away watching mum suffer from - and ultimately succumb to - mesothelioma. A FAP-high cancer that I hope, one day, Avacta might tame with its pre|CISION platform. My faith in CC and the #avct team is unabated. Exciting newsflow just up ahead.
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SJL@law70437·
@ParadigmCoachi1 @Timj65 Thanks PC. Horrible to see how cancer tears families apart. Both my heart and head are aligned in willing Avatca to succeed.
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Paradigm Coaching
Paradigm Coaching@ParadigmCoachi1·
@law70437 @Timj65 Sorry to hear that, SJL - I lost a very good friend to cervical cancer aged 34 a few years ago too. Heartbreaking to see her two wee boys left behind. Really hoping that #AVCT brings some ability to significantly improve survival rates too.
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SJL@law70437·
@BobDibble8 Thanks Bob for your kind message.
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Bob Dibble
Bob Dibble@BobDibble8·
@law70437 Good to have you back SJL, and condolences. I too have reason for avct to succeed and I share your views.The outlook is promising, the science needs the resources to make it a reality then we beat this dreadful disease.
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SJL
SJL@law70437·
@MylesMcNulty Hi Myles, thanks for your insights from Tyseley. I also expect GKN to be an early offtaker, considering the prior collabs. HyP ticks so many boxes - low cost, low carbon, scalable, sovereign supply - I expect funding / adoption in many countries, as you say. Exciting times. #mka
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Myles McNulty
Myles McNulty@MylesMcNulty·
Very impressive day yesterday at #MKA's HyProMag UK official opening event at the Tyseley Energy Park, Birmingham, yesterday. Well over 200 attendees. Notable names included Jaguar Land Rover, Rolls Royce and Siemens, and I'm aware that other big names were present (although not my place to name), as existing or potential customers. The Siemens representative did a great speech that focused particularly on how they loved HyP's exceptionally low carbon footprint NdFeB magnets. The impression given was that Siemens will likely be a major customer for HyP over the long-term. A representative from Intelligent Lifecycle Solutions - a global electronics recycling company and a key supplier to HyP, presently primarily of hard disk drives but expanding into other end-of-life products - was presenting at a station. He told our group that Liberty Global (Virgin) and Sky are currently the primary suppliers of HDDs to them (and consequently to HyP). Overall, it was apparent (to me at least) that there is more than enough supply and demand for HyP to scale up to nameplate capacity quickly, and grow far beyond 350 tpa in the medium-term. Also chatted to one of the key individuals behind HyP. They're keeping a close eye on anyone infringing on the patents, and have already knocked a few back. Very clear that hydrogen processing is by a long distance the best-in-class technology for NdFeB recycling, and one day everyone will be using it. It's vital that HyP expands as rapidly as possible (worldwide) and establishes the infrastructure and locks in significant and long-term supply agreements, whilst HPMS is on-patent. Next up? No idea, but a financing package for the first HyP USA plant (circa $142m required) must be close now, if they're still aiming to commence operations in mid-2027. HyP Germany? Being commissioned, hopefully production commences properly by end Q1. HyP expansion into Japan - a country that consumes even more NdFeB magnets that the US(!) - would for me be transformational for the group. Plenty of news to come on the other business division, $MKAR. Update on listing; Songwe Hill FEED update; Pulawy PFS update; EU CRMA funding for both Songwe Hill and Pulawy; US Gvt funding for Songwe Hill; PIPE funding... The valuation disconnect for MKA relative to the international peer group is just mad, and I will continue to highlight this until it closes!
Myles McNulty@MylesMcNulty

What a time for @MkangoResources #MKA to become the first commercial producer of NdFeB magnets in the UK after a 25-year hiatus. Neodymium is breaking out (+7% over past two sessions), catalyzed both by extreme geopolitical developments over the past year and by demand ratcheting up from data centres, robotics, military applications, electronics, EVs, etc. HyProMag Germany - a very similar sized and designed plant to the Birmingham site - is also being commissioned at the moment. Using the pricing in the most recent HyProMag USA studies ($95/kg average selling price), each of the UK and Germany operations will be generating circa $33m revenue per annum, once nameplate capacity of 350 tonnes pa is achieved. Assuming a conservative 40% EBITDA margin (the larger US plants are now estimated to operate at a 60% EBITDA margin), the two European plants will be generating a combined $26-27m EBITDA pa. Moreover, HyProMag has stated it intends to scale up UK capacity from 350 tpa to 1,000 tpa; and German capacity to 750 tpa. Mkango also reiterates in today's RNS that it's evaluating expansion plans into Japan, Canada and South Korea, which would bring operations (including the upstream assets in Malawi and Poland) to eight nations - giving Mkango by far the largest international footprint of any rare earth elements company in the world. A hidden gem that I am quite sure the international investment community will pick up on soon enough - especially with the industry really hotting up again, and with $MKAR to list on NASDAQ in the next couple of months.

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SJL@law70437·
Avacta is going the long way round...again! Beyond frustrating. But pre|Cision remains an industry-changing prospect, IMO. A realistic promise of many lives improved by kinder, better treatment. Thanks to all fair and constructive posters this year. Happy Christmas! #avct
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SJL@law70437·
@BobDibble8 Me too Bob! Although I would prefer to buy into a sustained rise than an unexpected drop.
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Bob Dibble
Bob Dibble@BobDibble8·
@law70437 Not a lot else we can do SJL it will come good in time, just wish I had a spare 10k around.
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SJL@law70437·
After a spell of relative stability and upward pressure in the SP, #avct is back to being the market's plaything, unfortunately. With these assets on the ledger, value will out eventually. Like many here, I've been invested for >5 years and am prepared to wait.
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SJL@law70437·
@Mike182035 @avacta @coughlin582 Median PFS at Actuate looks like 6.4 months at this Ph. 2 trial. Recent news suggests that #avct will do better than that for SGC.
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SJL@law70437·
The AIM continues to bewilder me! #mka released a superb RNS yesterday, upgrading the value of its planned US assets...and the market shrugged. Even if #mka had £1bn of cash stashed in a vault, AIM would likely still value the company at £100m! 🤔
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RAH@RAH00084·
#AVCT Blockbuster laughed at Netflix attaining a $1Bn+ valuation in early 2000s. Today blockbuster is dead and Netflix is worth over $300Bn and on a shopping spree for studios. Nokia was valued at over €100Bn in 2007. The iPhone was released in June of that year. Nokia sold for a little over €5Bn in 2014. New York Yellow Cab medallions peaked at $1.3m in 2014. Uber will never beat the regulatory moat… today medallions trade hands for $100-200k. Western Union once traded on x30 earnings. Then PayPal came along and it sits on sub x4. Point being, true disruption is never quick but the end result is always violent. If you’re a pharmaceutical company with a string of Antibody Drug Conjugates in your pipeline and a disruptor comes along with a peptide which is built upon just two amino acids - removing the need for that antibody entirely - you’re going to make sure you do your due diligence before you validate a mechanism which could one day be eating your (and all your competitors’) lunch. It is for this reason there are multiple industry eyes and ears on Avacta across LinkedIn and social media. A few patient shareholders will be handsomely rewarded. Most will sell the stock cheap through not having the courage of their own convictions. As the saying goes, anyone can buy a unicorn, few can hold them. Validate preCISION and you validate the inevitable disruption of Antibody Drug Conjugates. That has - and should - require extensive due diligence. They have more than enough data to now deal. The question is who is the right partner, which is right asset and how do you maintain Avacta’s overall attractiveness when the hammer falls. Because it will fall. When one moves. They all move.
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SJL@law70437·
@RAH00084 @111BEN_111 Completely agree. And that level of income would enable #avct to be virtually self-sufficient in funding its burgeoning pipeline. That brings huge leverage with BP. It seems many do not appreciate how close we are to this.
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RAH@RAH00084·
@111BEN_111 We spend a lot of time sketching out what a unicorn drug looks like for #AVCT. What’s never discussed is billion plus dollar companies are also built on single orphan drugs. It’s very easy to dismiss $250m pa because it’s not Keytruda. 6000 is very close to this type of income.
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Ben
Ben@111BEN_111·
#AVCT AVA6000 preliminary 1b/2 SGC data is now imminent, the likelihood of FDA validation grows ORPHAN designation for SGC is virtually guaranteed = 7 years market exclusivity after approval And potentially FAST Track designation = expedites review/FDA interaction + eligibility for accelerated approval All Fast Track requirements appear to be met: Addresses unmet need or shows advantage over existing therapy (with superior effectiveness, safer profile, earlier diagnosis, reduced toxicity, or meets emerging public health need) As seen with Lartruvo, it can move very quickly
Ben tweet mediaBen tweet media
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SJL@law70437·
If nothing else, the excitement in Canada has shaken #mka out of its funk in the 50s. Without speculating further on last night's increase, it's clear that #mka remains massively undervalued. So many milestones to liberate further SP growth in the next 6 months. Mouth watering!
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SJL@law70437·
@Allie_aa_ Love reading your posts, Allie. Another belter here. 👌 Let the games begin! #avct
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Al
Al@Allie_aa_·
-a reflection, not a forecast Who Moves First on #AVCT? Opening Gambit Big Pharma’s been playing an expensive game of molecular musical chairs. Now the music’s stopped and preCISION’s holding the only seat left (that isn’t broken). It’s not about interest anymore, just which one sobers up first and admits they’ve been believing their own ADC press releases. Switching to preCISION wouldn’t be a leap forward so much as an acknowledgment that precision should never have needed a cardiologist on call, an admission that an empire was built, in part, on side effects. The ADC crowd AstraZeneca, Daichi, Pfizer, AbbVie can all see it coming. They’re just too knee deep in their own billion dollar biology to turn the ship. Hundreds of billions sunk into constructs that still drag toxicity, complexity, and cost. They’ve built cathedrals around a technology that’s starting to look medieval. So they’ll circle, whisper, model… but they won’t move first. The real suspense sits with the ones who didn’t join the ADC arms race: Novartis, Merck KGaA, and Bristol Myers Squibb. All have oncology depth, checkpoint empires to defend, and a glaring gap in tumour selective delivery. They need something cleaner that plays nice with what they already own and preCISION doesn’t compete with their portfolios; it upgrades them. Novartis has form. It skipped the early ADC party but built its crown on precision timing Gleevec, Kisqali, Pluvicto each a bet placed just before consensus. Now it’s sitting on radioligand (RLT) momentum, fresh cash from sell offs, and a leadership team that moves early when the chemistry is right. They don’t need another antibody but they need an engine, preCISION is that engine. If they see it first, they’ll write the cheque before Pfizer’s even opened Excel. Merck KGaA is the quiet operator. Strong checkpoint pipeline, but no delivery partner. They flirted with ADCs, never committed, and still have the capital ready. They’d codevelop before they’d overpay but when the proof lands, they’ll move faster than most expect. Bristol Myers Squibb’s motive is simpler: Survival. Their IO empire built modern oncology, but it’s plateauing. PD-1 fatigue has set in. They need a nextgen delivery system to reignite the franchise. For BMS, preCISION isn’t a hedge; it’s the next lungful of air. Expect aggression once they realise the window’s closing. For investors, that’s where it gets interesting: A Novartis move means premium and permanence. A Merck move means partnership first, buyout later. A BMS strike means overpaying to stay relevant, short term fireworks, fast rerate. Whoever moves first won’t just be buying #AVCT they’ll be buying time, narrative, and the right to rewrite oncology’s next decade. And somewhere in Basel, Darmstadt, and Princeton, the lights are still on in strategy screens glowing, calculators sweating, pretending it’s just another Tuesday.. . ; )
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MB@MBdaytrading·
Still no signal, still waiting ……. #mka
MB@MBdaytrading

#MKA all support levels shown, trend is still up, I would add when hourly TF gives a signal

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Al@Allie_aa_·
•The Data That Reframes the Science (RNS 20 Oct 2025) Beyond Doxorubicin’s Ceiling The Human Proof #AVCT Needed Faridoxorubicin just crossed the line between promise and proof. In the 20 October RNS, released alongside the #ESMO presentation, the data showed what conventional wisdom said couldn’t be done: 4× dosing of doxorubicin, zero severe cardiac events, and progression free survival more than double historical benchmarks in salivary gland cancer. Validating Ava6000 and by extension, mechanistic proof of the preCISION platform itself. Tumour activation works safely in humans. The molecule cleaves, activates, and releases within the tumour microenvironment, sparing normal tissue. It even demonstrated a bystander effect; efficacy in tumours with minimal FAP expression, proving the reach extends well beyond theoretical targets into a delivery system that scales across cancers.. Partners will read it the way BP always does: a technology derisked at the mechanism level and ready to be industrialised. •The Raise That Rewrites the Timeline (RNS 20 Oct 2025) Financial Control + Strategic Posture #AVCT Buys Time on Its Own Terms The £16m raise was about keeping the leverage extending runway while tightening ownership grip. The terms tells us the story : bond repayments deferred to Oct 2027, conversion price reset at 75p (above market), and runway extended into H2 2026, carrying Avacta right through its next three catalysts and, crucially, past the point of dependence on the market for funding. Management did what strong teams do at inflection: settled the risk, controlled the timing, and recentred the market on platform value. Institutional appetite in the placing suggests that question “how far can this run before a partner steps in?” is already being modelled. That question matters because it reframes the opportunity; by removing financing risk, Avacta turned every upcoming dataset (expansion readout, platform update, and 6103’s clinical entry) into direct equity events. Each now compounds straight into shareholder value rather than being absorbed into dilution. Institutions know that setup well: derisked balance sheet, validated science, unpartnered platform. It’s the cleanest runway a biotech can offer before a strategic tieup resets the valuation scale. •Broader Read: How Avacta Is Now Playing the Long Game Recent months show a clear shift, a company evolving from proving a single drug to shaping an entire therapeutic field. #ESMO gave the human proof; the raise bought controlled time; the dual payload reveal unlocked modularity. That sequence is the architecture of a company ready to deal from strength, rather than necessity. #AVCT now behaves like infrastructure: a validated mechanism, IP horizon out to 2045, sustained release innovation, and multiple validated paths (faridoxorubicin, FAPexatecan, dual payload 6207) The setup’s complete. Everything now sits suspended in that narrow space before recognition, the quiet before a structural rerating and the strategy remains the same: prove, protect, extend. The trigger rarely fires overnight though with #AVCT, it just might. Across the last wave of oncology platforms, the clock from proof to repricing ran remarkably tight: AstraZeneca’s Enhertu deal struck roughly six months after human proof. AbbVie’s ImmunoGen acquisition followed eight months after confirmatory data. Pfizer’s Seagen move landed within nine months of its platform validation updates. Each arc followed the same sequence proof first, deal second, revaluation third. If Avacta holds that trajectory, the quiet compression we see now could resolve into a deal driven re rating by early to mid 2026 the point where validation matures into valuation..
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SJL@law70437·
@RAH00084 Completely agree. One wonders why #avct didn't raise a little more, especially as it was oversubscribed. Can only assume that the next clinical milestones are expected to boost SP materially to give even more optionality on financing.
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RAH@RAH00084·
#AVCT 6 Dec 2022 - Prometheus released results of two P2 (12-week) studies. Off the back of this data they raised $500m (Dec 2022). 4 months later (Apr 2023) they were bought out for $10.8Bn ($193 per share). Negotiation from a position of strength. Basic stuff.
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