Les 📈🚀

The most bifurcated market I've ever seen > Optics & memory stocks trading like we're in full risk-on mode $LITE $SNDK $AAOI $AXTI acting like the party never stopped (albeit very choppy) > MAG-7? Completely bid-less. $MAGS -10% YTD. > $VIX living above 20-25 — huge daily ranges, volatility isn't leaving anytime soon > $XLE the best performing S&P sector YTD > $USO +76% YTD > Gold, Silver, Copper all breaking down... so much for the "hard assets" trade > $SOXX 10% off 52-week highs and $NVDA just broke the 200-DMA, sitting 17% off ATH's > Sentiment readings are all over the place > SPX, QQQ, DIA all below the 200-DMA > $FSLY +147% YTD !! > Credit Spreads breaking out > Every speculative darling from this bull market is basically dead ~ $IREN $CIFR $RGTI $OKLO $IONQ $HOOD $RDDT $PLTR Etc ++ > Bond markets beginning to panic > $XLF bid-less Schizophrenic Market!

After 214 trading days, the S&P 500 closed beneath it's 200-day MA this week. Since 1950, when the S&P 500 closes above this trendline the annualized return is 21.1%. When it closes beneath? -22.2%. Proving once again that bad things tend to happen beneath this trendline.

Historically oversold market based on the McClellan Oscillator, right as the S&P 500 hits the upward sloping 200-day MA.

The clock for a potential Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT) started last week. Only 2% of all these signals go from oversold (like now) to overbought within 10 days (triggering a signal). But those that do tend to suggest the bulls are back. April '25 last time we saw one.

Over 40% of the stocks in the S&P 500 are down 20% from their 52-week highs: Via @BrianSozzi , thanks for the insight

Lots of conflicting data across sentiment & positioning right now, but this caught my attention: "US-listed ETF shorts on the Prime book increased +10% yesterday: the 2nd largest 1-day increase on Goldman's record". Source: GS

From the COT Report: Asset Managers dumped a record amount of S&P 500 futures this week Even more than during the COVID crash

Bearish positioning by hedge funds is at extreme levels: Hedge fund short positions in US-listed ETFs surged +10% on Thursday, the 2nd-largest single-day increase in data going back to 2016. The only bigger day was April 2nd, 2025, "Liberation Day," when shorts jumped +16%. As a result, US-listed ETF shorts soared +12% this week alone, following a +8% increase last week. In total, short positions are up +23% over the last month. Meanwhile, hedge fund short positions in US macro products, including index futures and ETFs, are up to 11.5% of total US exposure, approaching the 2022 bear market peak of 11.6%. Over the last 5 years, short exposure has only been higher in 3% of cases. Hedge fund shorts are at extreme levels.

NYSE McClellan Oscillator is now -100 The last time was April 2025, and we all know what happened there, whopping 11% in one day, even higher 30 days later. Mind you, no one wanted to buy stocks then. August and October 2025 got pretty low as well and ran up on average of 5% within days. SPY 697 target if markets rise 5%.

NYSE's McClellan A-D Oscillator as of March 12 is now as oversold as what we saw with the April 2025 tariff crash.

Despite being within 5% an all-time high, the $SPX McClellan Oscillator is extremely oversold. This setup has occurred 10 times previously, and $SPX was higher every single time 1 month later. Average gain over next month was +3.2% h/t @eliant_capital

$RBRK wow this is a +20% type of report (barring macro/war stuff) 1/

The cost of protection is near the most expensive levels in history. *Is it sustainable? / What happens next?

AAII bears>bulls two weeks in a row NAAIM lowest since May '25 Historic shorts on software 10-day equity put/call ratio highest since after Liberation Day Record equity outflows from institutions One of smallest ranges to a year ever Now here's two of the better months on tap

Good time to dust off the Chart of Fears. Yes, what is happening now is confusing and scary. But we've seen many other times like this and stocks have always moved from bottom left to upper right.

The sector rotation so far this year has been absolutely stunning... Video: youtube.com/watch?v=SO9DOJ…

One of the 3 biggest $IGV software drawdowns in 20 years

$OPEN may have just revealed its most powerful lever yet. 💸 Mortgage rates. A 1% rate difference doesn’t sound big. But it completely changes affordability. On a $500K loan, Opendoor’s 4.99% rate equals a $2,681 monthly payment. Traditional financing at 5.99% jumps to $2,995 per month. Same house. Same buyer. Over $300/month saved. Lower payments instantly expand the qualified buyer pool. More buyers —> higher conversion —> faster inventory turns —> lower DOM —> lower OPEX. This is what happens when $OPEN controls financing instead of relying on third parties. Not just buying and selling homes anymore. They’re compressing the entire transaction into one optimized system. $AMZN playbook. 🎯

I used to say the US was the best house in a bad nieghborhood - including when it came to investments. That has now flipped. International stocks are winning. $SPY