leftvy

@ikarusz26 cant find tbh

@leftvy nope, but I'm sure there are a few out there

The gap between the avg. and median HYPE airdrop allocation was huge. The $POLY distribution will likely be similar imo since most users aren’t very active/don’t do much volume, plus there’s a ton of bots and wash trading (hopefully filtered out), and then you’ve got the whales.

@drews888 how u do it mf

Gambled some on this, Trump's tone of speech reminds me of how he spoke before the ceasefire in early April(retweet below how I traded it). Most likely I'm losing money on this, but the odds are good.

@ikarusz26 So, he got fired💀

oh no.. this tweet is now deleted. maybe farming $POLY isn't the easiest way to change your life? 🤔

@SkewDealer @Polymarket lmao, i cant wait 8 days more

Cmon guys, 29th May is a Friday 😭 @Polymarket

@ikarusz26 “water is wet”, you didnt get my point

@leftvy A points program is pretty much the same thing as an airdrop btw.

Wanted to share my thoughts on the upcoming $POLY TGE, potential tokenomics, airdrop criteria, long-term upside, risks, etc. Airdrop Criteria It makes sense for Polymarket to reward organic users while also considering when the volume was generated and whether the account is actually active/a regular user. Someone who slammed $1m into a sports market and never used the platform again isn't the same as someone who put $1m volume across multiple markets while being consistently active on the platform. I think when the volume was generated matters a lot more than the size itself. Volume generated in earlier periods will probably be rewarded exponentially more. (It doesn't make sense for someone who did $1m volume in 2026 to get anywhere close to someone who did $1m in 2024.) We've already seen this with Hyperliquid and Lighter recently. Early Hyperliquid users with very little volume got over $100k airdrops. (Those tokens are worth 5x that now.) And with Lighter, the points program was insanely easy to farm early on with just $10k size trades. Towards the end however, you'd need $1m size trades just to get the same amount of points. I think Polymarket will follow a similar methodology. That's also why I think farming for the sake of the airdrop is already over at this point. Once everyone starts talking about it, taking consistently -EV bets just for the airdrop probably becomes a bad idea. I've also seen people forcing volume across multiple categories. I don't think this matters at all. Being a concentrated user on specific markets probably shouldn't disadvantage you at all. Anyone who used Polymarket's API also knows most older markets didn't even have proper categories/tags attached to them. I also looked at most of the unofficial checkers and honestly, I think people are giving way too much hopium to LP reward farmers. Just because something isn't utilized enough doesn't automatically mean it'll get rewarded more. It's a prediction market, not a DEX. I can also see a scenario where Polymarket announces a finalized points program/snapshot first and delays the TGE to a later stage. We've already seen Lighter do this: users got their finalized points allocated first (and farming meaningful amounts after that became significantly harder), while the token came later. Not saying that's the right move, just saying it's definitely possible if they want to ramp up even more volume while assuring users the token is confirmed. (Especially since I still don't think the recent teases fully convinced people the TGE is actually near.) I think volume matters for the airdrop, but probably not to the extent people think. Someone risking capital at 50c isn't the same as someone bonding with the same amount. I can even see a scenario where shares traded below 3c and above 97c either get reduced weighting or don't count at all since those are almost always moonshots or bonding activity. I also think a lot of the public leaderboard is inflated with bot activity, wash trading, and inactive accounts. So the actual ranking is probably much better than most people think. I don't think PnL will matter much either. In fact, I can genuinely see a scenario where slightly negative PnL gets rewarded with a small multiplier. The logic being: people who lost money are probably more likely to lose it again anyway, while profitable users already extracted value from the platform. Token Use Cases I think $POLY will have multiple use cases and probably more over time. Fee reduction through staking (similar to Hyperliquid or BNB if staking isn't required). Given how sticky Polymarket's liquidity already is while most competitors outside of Kalshi still struggle with liquidity, this alone could make it so users don't even bother trading elsewhere. Native settlement layer: UMA will eventually get replaced and the native token becomes the core of settlements. Gas fees on the upcoming chain (Polygon is already making absurd amounts from Polymarket activity even with extremely low fees.) I can also see referral rewards scaling based on staked token amount. (Something BNB did in the past.) I don't think value accrual comes from buybacks though. That would feel weird if the company eventually shares profits and also pushes for an IPO. Airdrop Allocation Polymarket's CMO mentioned in an interview that they admire how well Hyperliquid handled its token and want something with actual utility and longevity. I'm expecting something around a 15-20% airdrop allocation. Hyperliquid distributed around 25%, so using that as a rough framework makes sense while also keeping in mind Polymarket probably has VCs involved. (Though I doubt they'd get too much since they'd probably prefer equity exposure instead.) Socials/Yaps I think it'll be such a tiny multiplier that unless you already have a large account, it's probably not even worth spending too much time on. Upside Potential Given people are now aware sustainable token models can actually work, I don't expect the same type of move HYPE had. A lot of that will already be priced in from the start. But I can definitely see a scenario where the token launches at a high valuation and slowly grinds higher over time into the IPO narrative. Having a completely bleeding token chart would make an IPO significantly harder to sell. That said, if/when IPO discussions become serious, I'd probably front-run that and become a seller. Having both a public stock and a token under changing regulation can create a lot of uncertainty later on. Future Growth Even though everyone keeps saying prediction markets becoming mainstream marks the top, I still think there's massive room for future growth. The infra can already support significantly more markets with basically no marginal cost: commodities, options/perps style markets, sportsbook expansion in the US. Most of Kalshi's volume already comes from sports betting. It's basically a monopoly at this point in the US, but probably not forever. US expansion also unlocks massive marketing opportunities to the point where they could realistically run Super Bowl ads eventually. And there are also multiple future events that can easily create huge spikes in volume: World Cup, midterms, 2028 elections, macro events. Market Risks Ironically, Polymarket and its token could perform relatively well even during weaker crypto markets. Prediction markets aren't fully reliant on crypto speculation continuing upward. For reference, a decent % of Hyperliquid's volume already comes from non-crypto markets now. Technical Challenges I'm still not fully buying into the "Polychain is launching soon" narrative because of how much infra still needs to be built around it: explorers, RPCs, bridges, DEXes, wallets. I wouldn't be surprised if they partner with an existing stack like Optimism or Arbitrum instead. Otherwise, I just don't see this happening anytime soon.

@funnysmartdumb fuk it

@leftvy always been

@YYehalawlaw @Khamul999 future farming What

@Khamul999 Sheesh our farms are too similar. Its almost like I'm copying you.

Current farming setup: 1) Fluid sUSDai loop 20% real yield, Season 2 is running with $CHIP still massively overvalued. You can also play the constant small depegs. 2) Saturn USDAT YT/PT Just point-maxxing on this. High chance this gets crimed up imo. Hopefully the PT will be on Morpho soon, then I’d size more into it. 3) Variational Going “hard” on this again now. Closing in on 5k points, would be nice to double that before TGE, but we’ll see lol. RWAs coming soon. Sources are telling me a $1B FDV is locked in. Still see it as the main money-making play for 2026. Lastly, maybe also some words on Polymarket: Farming it (for the airdrop) is kinda fucked nowadays. The only real edge was LPing, but that got diluted to hell. I expect really low airdrop returns relative to the USDC earned now. It can still be worth, but you really gotta know what you’re doing at this point. And if ur LPing alone isn’t profitable, it’s definitely not worth it anymore. Will most likely be a very mid airdrop for most people.

@toni62036 Idk, I’m starting to think I’ll have to hold hypurrs to zero 💀

Might snatch a second Hypurr, thoughts?

i swear to god just shut up and the airdrop will happen shut up

@wronguser000 💀

This is who runs our industry lads, man is ready to drop insider clues about his $15B company to anyone who blinks at him IRL And acts like he doesnt understand whats happening while it’s happening "almost got caught ahah" Man please

@SolanaSensei bro, anyone could have created such a network in few clicks, its not polymarket, stop posting that shit

Polymarket announced a chain migration and a new chain on avalanche was just created named "Polymarket" 👀

@ripdotxyz its only a matter of time before Hypurr is recognized

@retentionjunkie I thought you 8 figs

For those who don’t know I went from 3 figs to 6 figs through farming Meteora I will go from 6 figs to 7 figs from farming $POLY New millionaires will be birthed.

@aut3z @inno_ox lunar

@inno_ox abc…

POV: YOU ARE IN SOLANA IN 2022 reply something else 👇

@turbobigmoney should come back to farm

lowest volume, lowest OI, lowest everything but got more points than any other week I guess bro

@Punk_Monke Thank God I missed this. A few days ago I was even thinking about holding NO shares💀

Lot of polymarket LP farmers have been murdered by ceasefire yesterday But you wont see it on your TL 😂

@Punk_Monke 😭

If you're not early, you're late

@Punk_Monke there was something to farm then🙂

@leftvy i mean why not before

Why is everyone starting farming $POLY in 2026 ?