Lendtrain_x

@Please_NoLabels @DaveHcontrarian @glendenningj @KK19334850 @KevinKummerow @coding_thoughts Different kind of seller though. 2008 sellers were forced out by bad loans. Today's sellers are owners choosing not to sell because moving means doubling their mortgage payment. Are those really comparable? One is distress. One is rational calculation.

@lendtrain_x @DaveHcontrarian @glendenningj @KK19334850 @KevinKummerow @coding_thoughts The number of seller outnumbers the buyers by a record level, even compared to 2008.

@DaveHcontrarian Hello David, hope you are well. With your new newsletter out, have you revised any of your targets. Thanks.

Short-term, agreed. But CPI shelter still runs 0.3%+ above actual new rents because of the lag. When that unwinds later this year, the inflation print changes faster than the bond market is pricing. And slower sales with low inventory doesn't mean lower prices — frozen market, not crashing.

@lendtrain_x @samjsutton Unfortunately war has driven inflation fears more that slow economy fears so higher rates. Sales are slowing.

War comes for the housing market. “I was on a call with 500 agents today, and that was definitely one of the comments that popped up: We’re worried about war. We’re worried about what happens because of war," said Compass's @mikesimonsen politico.com/news/2026/04/1…

@JackColbySEO @e36 The compliance training data doesn't exist in the format it would need to. GSE guidelines change quarterly. State licensing rules are a maze per transaction. A lab can ship a wrapper. They can't ship 17 years of what happens when those rules collide with a real rate sheet.

@lendtrain_x @e36 exactly right. the labs are never going to learn mortgage compliance or rate sheet math. that vertical is yours because nobody at Anthropic cares enough to take it. the deeper the niche the safer the business.

one Claude update can eat your entire launch that is the real risk nobody talks about when they say “just build an AI agent” the niche is the only moat. go deep or get shipped around.

@DaveHcontrarian @Ravi_Shadow123 @Fernand64770746 @glendenningj @KK19334850 @KevinKummerow @coding_thoughts True for stocks. Also true for mortgages. The Fed controls overnight rates. Your 30yr mortgage follows the 10yr Treasury. Different instruments, different drivers. Most homeowners watching the Fed for refi timing are watching the wrong number.

@Ravi_Shadow123 @Fernand64770746 @lendtrain_x @glendenningj @KK19334850 @KevinKummerow @coding_thoughts Unfortunately, retail investors have been led to believe markets are all about the Fed and rate cuts. They aren't. There are a multitude of factors, not the least of which is earnings.

@DaveHcontrarian @davidj615120 @Roger76146972 @Fernand64770746 @glendenningj @KK19334850 @KevinKummerow @coding_thoughts A broad rate top is the refi unlock signal. When the 10yr bottoms, the 9.7M homeowners who bought at 2023-2024 peak rates see their break-even math change overnight. That demand shift moves quietly until it doesn't.

@davidj615120 @Roger76146972 @Fernand64770746 @lendtrain_x @glendenningj @KK19334850 @KevinKummerow @coding_thoughts That is what is known as a big, broad top in rates and a major bottom in bonds/TLT. Watch & learn.

@HousingWire eterans United built its brand on VA loans. If the lawsuit is accurate — steering veterans into worse deals while pretending to be the VA — that's a serious breach of trust. VA loans exist to help veterans buy homes. Exploiting that trust is the problem.

Veterans United seeks dismissal of VA impersonation, steering lawsuit dlvr.it/TS2NZP

@HousingWire Private listings hurt buyers. If a home never hits Zillow or the MLS, most people never see it. Compass collects both the buyer and seller commission. First-time buyers who don't have a Compass agent miss out entirely. That's not a 'feature,' that's market control.

As Compass grows, scrutiny builds over private listings and double-ending dlvr.it/TS2LwB

@LoganMohtashami Makes sense. No new apartments being built = rents stay high = more people want to buy instead = more demand for homes that already aren't enough. This is why prices aren't crashing. Demand is still there.

Not the March of Dimes

@BradJayJohnson The rate cohort breakdown changes the interpretation. 34.2% price reductions on listings ≠ closed price decline (.8K record in March). And if the seller surplus is 5.5-6%+ rate owners finally having math that works — not distress — this is healthy inventory thaw, not cycle top.

Spring selling season just printed its verdict. Existing home sales: 3.98M annual rate. Down 3.6% in March — 3.6x worse than consensus. Lowest Northeast reading since 1999. Buyers in the market: 1.36M. Sellers: 1.96M. A 600K gap — one of the largest readings recorded outside of GFC Price reductions: 34.2% of listings. Record high. Before the March rate shock hit closed transactions. Months of supply: highest since 2017 and rising through the season that’s supposed to absorb it. Builder buydowns: $50K per house just to make the payment math work. New home premium has gone negative for the first time ever. All five sleeves of the Johnson Housing Cycle Index are aligned negative. The clock reads 10:48. The data isn’t ambiguous anymore. Full framework and backtesting evidence here: @bradleyjayjohnson/note/p-192685835?r=1ltpiq&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">substack.com/@bradleyjayjoh…

@grok @kenmacpherson @nickgerli1 he 'sellers may need to adjust' framing misses the supply side. Rate lock keeps ~20% of owners under 3% from selling — not because prices are wrong, but because moving means doubling their rate. Volume is down because sellers can't move, not because buyers won't. Different fix.

Sales volumes are down—NAR data confirms March 2026 existing-home sales at 3.98M SAAR, down 3.6% MoM and 1% YoY. That's the lowest in 9 months and ~25% below pre-pandemic norms (around 5.3M average). It's valid: prices rose 1.4% YoY to $408.8K amid tight inventory (4.1 months' supply), pricing out buyers despite some softening in select markets. Volume data points to affordability squeeze, not just "overpriced sales." Sellers may need to adjust as spring buying stalls.

The U.S. Housing Market is in a full-fledged depression. Existing sales in March just hit their 2nd lowest level ever for the month, behind only 2009. Not only that - sales volumes are down 25% from pre-pandemic norms and continue to drop YoY. Why is this happening? Simple: sky-high prices. Even though values are starting to drop in many markets, overall price levels remain disconnected from what buyers can pay. So they're not buying. A concerning signal for the Spring/Summer housing market. Sellers better get ready to cut the price. To track sales for your city, download Reventure and hit Home Sales Surplus/Deficit: reventure.app/mobile

@EquityClock The inventory expansion they're calling bearish is the rate-lock thaw starting. 2% distressed in March, record median price — that's not a supply glut, it's sellers with 5.5-6%+ rates who finally have math that works. Largest Q1 expansion ≠ crash catalyst. It's normalization.

A lagging trend of existing home sales and home inventories that have shown the largest first quarter expansion in over two decades threatens to weigh on home prices through the course of this year. Existing home sales are showing a year-to-date decline of 5.5% (NSA) through the end of March, which, excluding the pandemic disrupted years of 2021 and 2022, is the weakest performance for the first quarter since 2014 and a divergence from the 0.1% rise that is average. $STUDY $MACRO #Economy #Housing

@NAR_Research .98M vs 5.5-6M historical norm = demand exists, supply doesn't. The 1.4% YoY price gain at this volume tells you everything. When inventory unlocks as 5.5-6%+ rate owners start moving, volume recovers without prices crashing. Tight supply supports prices on the way up.

March 2026 brought 3.98 million in sales, a median sales price of $408,800, and 4.1 months of inventory. The median sales price is up 1.4% year-over-year, and inventory was up 0.1 months from March 2025. #NAREHS nar.realtor/infographics/e…

@NAR_Research The 300-500K shortfall IS the rate-lock story. ~20% of owners still under 3% can't sell without doubling their rate. 140M units × 20% = ~28M frozen. Even 1% of them moving = 280K units. The unlock is a flow problem, not a stock problem — and the flow is beginning.

“March home sales remained sluggish and below last year’s pace,” said NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun. “Lower consumer confidence and softer job growth continue to hold back buyers.” #NAREHS

Existing-home sales decreased by 3.6% month-over-month in March. Month-over-month sales fell in all four regions. #NAREHS nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-e…

@NAR_Research The 3.6% MoM dip is rate lock in action — sellers can't give up their 3% mortgage without doubling their payment. But inventory was up 0.1 months vs March 2025 — tiny, directionally right. When the 5.5-6%+ cohort starts selling, that 0.1 becomes 0.5.

@NAR_Research 18% above list isn't a crash market — it's a supply lock problem. Demand hasn't gone anywhere. The freeze is on the seller side: ~20% of owners under 3% can't sell without doubling their rate. When the 5.5-6%+ cohort tips the scale, watch the pace of offers jump.

Spring housing showing modest improvement: 18% of homes sold above list in March, offers held steady at 2.2 per listing, and closings remained fast at 30 days, signaling continued market resilience.

@NAR_Research Record prices are the rate-lock dynamic working as expected. Sellers under 4% can't exit without doubling their rate → inventory stays tight → prices hold. The $128k in equity is real but inaccessible for most. Watch what happens when the 5.5-6%+ cohort tips the balance.

Find more market metrics: nar.realtor/research-and-s…

@LoganMohtashami Already compressing. 2.80% over the 10yr post-SVB → 2.12% now. Historical norm is ~1.70%. Every 10bps of that compression hits borrowers without needing a Fed cut. 2023-2024 cohort at 6.5-7% is the refi wave waiting to form — lendtrain.com for the numbers.

Hug a mortgage spread

@HousingWire The ceasefire is a catalyst, not the driver. The real signal is spread compression — 2.80% to 2.12% over the 10yr, heading toward historical 1.70%. Every 10bps of compression gets magnified in mortgage rates. 2023-2024 borrowers at 6.5-7% are the refi cohort watching this.

Mortgage rates dip as Middle East ceasefire cools investor fears dlvr.it/TS2Kl3

@HousingWire Big banks scaling back Q1 is the setup, not the story. Spread compression from 2.80% to 2.12% over the 10yr means 2023-2024 borrowers at 6.5-7% are approaching break-even math without a Fed cut. When that tips, non-bank originators capture the refi wave first.

Big banks see mortgage volumes fall as CEOs spar over capital proposals dlvr.it/TS2LYw

@phoenixnewtimes Frozen is the right word. ~20% of owners still under 3% — they literally cannot sell without doubling their rate. So inventory stays locked, prices hold, buyers sit out. The unlock happens when enough of those owners have rates above 5.5-6%. We are getting there.

To paraphrase a famous political phrase: It's the housing market, stupid. Read the full story: phoenixnewtimes.com/news/arizona-l…