Lily Onga🥬

I change my username from @broccolilyfarm to @lilyonga_ 🦦🌽🥬 About to start a new wave of my career and I hope you’ll continue to be here with me เปลี่ยนแฮนเดิ้ลเป็นชื่อจริงค่ะ 👩🏻‍🍳 ขอบคุณที่ให้กำลังใจบล็อกของลิลลี่มาตลอด ปีนี้จะรับงานในสเกลที่ใหญ่ขึ้น จริงจังขึ้นค่ะ

Claude Lalanne’s Ginkgo Chair, 1990's

I just found out that Anne Hathaway optioned the rights to a book about a modern tradwife influencer who wakes up in 1855 and has to live the life that she’s been selling to her followers online. I am SCREAMING

ไม่ได้เก่งขนาดจะแนะนำอะไรใึรได้ แต่ถ้าใครสนใจหนังสือด้านหมังหงะสไตล์ญี่ปุ่นและพออ่านญี่ปุ่นออก แนะนำเล่มนี้โคตรดีโคตรเทพ ครบจบทุกสกิลมังหงะค่ะ อ่านแล้วสมองส่องแสง🤯

Fantasy covers peaked in the 60s-70s IMO

I highly recommend @FIEND___ tutorials for Blender, extra bonus points for the Octane ones 😂

Everytime Moho surprises me with something insane, they post and surprise me with something more insane.

@littletotoro8 ขอบคุณมากๆ กว่าค่ะ☺️ รู้สึกโชคดีที่ได้มาพบแอคของคุณค่ะ

@lilyonga_ ขอบคุณมากๆเลยครับ 🥹 ดีใจมากเลยครับที่ช่วยเป็นความรู้ให้ได้ สงสัยอะไรตรงไหนถามได้หมดเลยนะครับ

UPDATED COMPREHENSIVE FRAMEWORK (Updated Intrinsic Value Calculation - April 2026) ======================== Framework Definition This framework calculates the Expected Return of a stock over the next 3 years (end of 2028). It is based on 12 steps of internal methodology inside this framework, to convert companies from different sectors, stages, industries to a standardized “Leaderboard” The Goal By normalizing every stocks to a 3 years holding period, with a uniform % upside metric, will allow comparing companies from different properties to a single objective field of “upside” Every upside % → shares the same timeframe, 3 years of holding. ======================== To use this framework: This framework is separated in 3 Zones: with each Zones assigned an upside number %, from different stages of analysis. 🔵 Zone A → 🟢 Zone B → 🔴 Zone C 🔵 Core Mechanism → 🟢 Overview → 🔴 Reality ======================== 🔵 Zone A (Blue columns): Core Mechanism Explains 2 core machanisms of what drive stock prices: 🔵 1. Earning Growth 🔵 2. Multiple Expansion 🔵 Column 1: Upside From Earning Growth Fundamentally, an increase in annual earning directly increase a stock economic value. This column is designed to calculate estimated earning growth that will occur over the next 3 years. Higher value indicates stronger pace of underlying business growth. 🔵 Column 2: Upside From Multiple Expansion. Market always assign a “valuation” to a stock. Valuation is denoted as multiples. (Ex. 22 P/E = 22 Multiples) This column is designed to evaluates their current multiples and a fair multiples. Fair multiple is calculated based on quality of earning itself, based on these parameters: 3Y Forward PEG = 1, Industry, Ability to compound, Ability to retain revenue etc. For example: a company with current 30 P/E, but has fair value of 20 P/E would receive a -50% Upside From Multiple Expansion (a penalty) → Positive % suggests that the stock is currently undervalued relative to its quality, therefore, has room for P/E ratio to expands. → Negative % suggests that the stock is expensive. Stock today has price that doesn’t yield a great earning return in relative to its quality, and has room of opposite to multiple expansion, a “multiple compression”. In other words, downside in the future. ======================== 🟢 Zone B (Green columns): Expected Return 🟢 Column 3: Combined Upside This column multiplies 2 mechanisms from first 2 columns together. Formula = Column 1 (Earning Growth) × Column 2 (Multiple Expansion) It represents total upside potential of the stock over the next 3 years if the company executes perfectly, and if the market remains rational. In a perfect world, this is the return you will get from holding this stock for 3 years. However, this method has flaws, as this world/market is not perfect. It assumed a perfect prediction of earning growth, and a perfect prediction of market’s emotion to appreciate a company quality enough to give a “fair multiples”, which is never the case in real life. Which leads to Zone C ======================== 🔴 Zone C (Red columns): Risk-Adjusted Return This zones adjust Zone B & Column 3 into real market 🔴 Column 4: Execution Risk Level Not every company has equal quality, not company is equally reliable. This column adjusts existing Expected Return from Column 3, and adjusts for risk: management track records, moat/qualities, regulation risks, etc. Execution Risk ranges from Very Low (High moat, highly predictable) to Extreme (Uncertainty) 🔴 Column 5: Execution Risk Multiplier Execution Risk Level is assigned to a numerical multiplier to Expected Return. Execution Risk: Low → 0.9 Multiplier Execution Risk: Very High → 0.5 Multiplier As a result, the higher the risk, the lower Upside % overall 🔴 Column 6: Risk-Adjusted Upside (Final Product) The final product of the sheet. This columns accounts for expected upside over the next 3 years, accounted for Execution Risk. Formula: Column 3 (Combined Upside) × Column 5 (Execution Risk Multiplier) As a final product (Column 6, Risk-Adjusted Upside) will be used as main determinant of an investment choice. ======================== ✅✅✅Example of my picks from this framework: $APP → High Earning Growth, fair multiples, high quality earnings. $CRDO → Very high growth with strong CapEx tailwind. → Cheaper than peers $ALAB → room to rerates to higher multiples $MSFT, $META, $AMZN, $TSM → Safe “Core Stocks”, long term compounder, attractive valuation given their ability to compound & retain earnings. $NU, $DLO → High upside from Earning Growth, attractive multiples, diversification from US. $DAVE → High growth, extremely undervalued, but comes with severe regulation risks. $RDDT, $RBRK → Expensive, but compensated by very strong growth. ❌❌❌ Example of my avoids: $PLTR → Very high growth & Quality, but insanely overvalued → Actually ranks #1 in Quality Score Model, far above others, but the valuation is too high to justify an investment. $RKLB → No profit in forseeable future (2028) → hard to evaluate intrinsic value. $NVO, $UNH, $ADBE → Cheap, but rely too much on multiple expansion → require the market to rerates higher → rely more on luck ======================== To use this framework to help pick stocks step by step: 1. Avoid less than -25% in Upside From Multiple Expansion 2. Look for Highest Upside From Earning Growth 3. Look for Highest Risk-Adjusted Upside 4. Look for as low Execution Risk as possible No stock is perfect. → Stocks with higher upside tend to come with higher risk → Low risk will comes with low upside This framework only helps to find a great Risk/Reward opportunity based on numbers, but by its own is not enough. Always do research, build your conviction, along with concrete fundamental numbers. ======================== Notes: This sheet exclude diffucult stock to evaluate: Extremely Cyclical: $MU, $SNDK, Bitcoin Miners/HODLers No-profit stage: $NBIS, $IREN, $ASTS Highly Speculative: $IONQ Rare Earths, Biotechs, Robotics, Space Uninteresting stocks: Majority of SaaS, Banks, Insurances, Matured stocks Excluding these stocks define your “Circle of Competence” strictly. If a stock go up +50%, you must understand the mechanisms of it. Whether you do or don’t, it is the thin line between guessing and investing.

harry spending his nights in front of the mirror of erised in first year

อ่านถึงตรงนี้แล้วเซอร์ไพรส์ + ชื่นชมในความ clever ของกลวิธีการแปล จะได้ไม่ต้องมาโวยกันเรื่องเสียรสวัฒนธรรมต้นทาง ใช้ภาษาต้นทางแม่ง 555555

L'existence de Yuri Gagarin implique l'existence de Yaoi Madonnarin

I think you would go insane if you really comprehended the multiplicity of alien forms who populated the Earth for millions of years. I spent two hours boggled in a natural history museum and could not make heads or tails of it. It's not a subject truly accessible to the mind

bigbang treating t.o.p like those sports anime characters that graduate, “senpai are you watching us”

FOUND: the cat all those medieval artists were painting

今宵も中世のマニキュラ（Manicula）をどうぞ。 かわいいものから不気味なものまで、実に多彩で面白い。

修悦さんと新宿

“The cat and the Porridge”, 1935, Yuri Vasnetsov

平面のパースは右が正解ですが、左は左で未来的。

Nintendogs | Nintendo DS - 2005

411に泊まったんだけど、他の部屋と比べると狭すぎてうける🤣