y. ☴

Probably nothing...

@factor_members hi Peter, i know this is oot, but wondering if you could take a look at this chart, perhaps an inverted right shoulder forming?

just wondering Peter, in your experience are there news items that impacted/change your view of an asset you are holding/shorting? the question is due to me managing my family's assets and most of the times when there are big events such as this, I had to use news as an excuse for holding/selling assets. btw, goes without saying really appreciate your charts on gold/silver. the relative weakness of gold during this heightened tension is something that boggles a lot of people, but it feels good to be on the right side of the trade. (at least for the moment)

this is my first experience of war of this grand scale (not sure if my constant reading on X/news exarerbate my own fear). but it feels this time the whole world is bracing for a big impact (impact of high oil prices, food prices, inflation). ? ive sold all my silver/gold miners around $90-$110 silver, and want to buy back when silver is falling, but to be honest, now seeing the news makes me abit wary. how do you separate the noise from signal in this environment?

My Polystrat agent just made 4.8× ROI on Polymarket! 🚀 Check it out👇 predict.olas.network/polystrat/achi…

My Polystrat agent just made 4.2× ROI on Polymarket! 🚀 Check it out👇 predict.olas.network/polystrat/achi…

My Polystrat agent just made 4.5× ROI on Polymarket! 🚀 Check it out👇 predict.olas.network/polystrat/achi…

@factor_members have you ever take a complete break from trading Peter? how long was it on average if i may ask? or what do you do in between trades ?

My Polystrat agent just made 5.9× ROI on Polymarket! 🚀 Check it out👇 predict.olas.network/polystrat/achi…

@factor_members In your public account you mention using bayesian probabilities as your method. Do you mind sharing more about it and how you use it to determine your trading positions?

Hi Peter in terms of sentiment, do you see the 1970s oil crisis is worse or is it currently worse? Almost all news im reading it shows an impending global disorder and the end of times of the world as we know it. ive only been in the market for 10 years so this seems new to me. Its quite scary to be honest. Not just in financial world but overall condition

@factor_members sorry Peter, didnt mean to sound presumptuous or arrogant, I wanted to say I appreciate this post a lot, and looking to find ways to keep myself from overtrading

"Be smart Trade when there are trades Don't trade where there are no trades Take small losses Don't oversize your positions I wish I could say all of the above are easy" after hitting losses over losses over losses, i find myself hard not to revenge trade, and it is usually another big loss.. any suggestions on how to keep the urge from getting big? it usually happens to me when i become arrogant and think the market corrections doesnt affect me, and gets me to overtrade which then hurt my overall profit. trading is hard as you have to maintain balance between patting yourself in the back when times are hard and understanding your emotion that you are getting too ahead/full of yourself. and because I think its a personal journey, its not easy to find a community to share this experience. somehow im glad i found you and FMs, but I also realize that when i feel like this its because Ive just taken a bad streak.

@teamz_inc @TradingAlpinist @autonolas you might be mentioned!

🎉 TEAMZ Summit 2026 Speaker Announcement 🎤 Nicolas Gallet @TradingAlpinist 🔹 CEO 🔹 GALLET CAPITAL 💼 Gallet Capital, led by its CEO Nicolas Gallet, is a Singapore-based firm specializing in investments in early-stage Web 2.5 and Web 3.0 projects. With 25 years of experience in the financial sector and deep expertise in any type of frontier or emerging financial markets, Gallet Capital is deeply involved and committed to supporting startup growth. Strongly imprinted in the Web 3.0 spirit of collaboration and decentralization, the firm also focuses on forging strategic partnerships within the VC and investors landscape, exploring co-investment opportunities. Gallet Capital invests and provides strategic advisory with a particular emphasis on infrastructure (interoperability, AI agents), post-Web AdTech (privacy preservation, intent), DeFi (derivatives, fixed income derivatives, convexity, risk assessment and hedges, asset management and capital efficiency), tokenization of RWAs and fractionalization of illiquid assets. portfolio at galletcapital.com Nicolas is also lecturing at the Singapore University, on decentralized finance topics. 📅 April 7–8, 2026 📍 Happo-en, Tokyo 🎟️ Tickets: teamz.co.jp/tickets 🌐 teamz.co.jp #crypto #Web3 #AI #TEAMZ #Blockchain #NFT #RWA #Game #VC #DeFi #Speaker #Investor #Web3 #Summit #Event #NicolasGallet #VentureCapital

@TradingAlpinist Nice summary Nico, asian market is really feeling the grim reality. Indonesian stock market especially

geopolitical fatigue + AI/tech dominance. We are 5 days into the Iran War and stocks are pretty much unchanged, only KOSPI down 12%. BTC is up 8%, Gold unchanged, VIX is marginally higher at 21, Brent up 13%. USD up 1%, UST yields up 15bps, high yield barely changed (and if anything the move seems only idosyncratic on recent private cfredit news). When you read this it seems there is no war fear, only Oil impact directly importer countries(like Korea) and inflation expectation (USD yield higher) but for the rest it seems business as usual for the new AI world. The financial markets took time to ignore Ukraine war and gaza, it ignored Iran in a glimpse. Only a Taiwan-China tension could shaken the Tech beast. The intra day price action support an asian bearish bias (KOSPI still in VaR 99% event mode, and constant offer on BTC and QQQ during asian time zone) while Europe and US corrects those move daily. BTC is pricing a higher probability of the conflict resolution than Equities, but still both are probably pricing above 70% that things will settle very fast. This makes playing the tails still relatively cheap.

@factor_members @bconzb @AndrewThrasher @grok thanks for your reply Peter 🙏

One market that has shown a recent 5% canary signal with confirmation is Indonesia's Jakarta Stock Exchange.

My Polystrat agent just made 3.1× ROI on Polymarket! 🚀 Check it out👇 predict.olas.network/polystrat/achi…

@factor_members thanks Peter, it cant even retest the gap and seems quite bearish, Indonesia has some political /structural issues internally which i think makes it currently hard to be on the positive receiving end

@bconzb @AndrewThrasher @grok hi Peter @factor_members , based on your experience, have you heard on this and do you know if its a reliable indicator?

@AndrewThrasher @grok what does this means?

@aravind what do you think about Indonesia?

Long post but I will try to make sure it is worth it for you to read: Just want to reassure Indians worried about rising crude prices and energy shipment crunch - Do not worry. The issues to India are temporary. India will come out of this very fine by end of this year. The US is controlling most of world's energy now. Its target is China. Not India, as India is playing this very well with its stance, support, and statements. So don't fall for propaganda and invite issues for India. Russian oil will soon flow in plenty to India under US blessings. But will find it difficult to flow to China (at least via the western route). bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Remember, via the western route from Russia (middle east/suez–red sea route) roughly 900,000 barrels per day flow to China (seaborne Urals crude.) People imagine all Russian energy somehow flows to China via east / pipes, so China won't have an issue. This is wrong. But surely China is prepared for a few months. So, much of this China bound western Russian oil will flow to Europe too via India (refined). Venezuela oil is already flowing to Indian (refineries), which India can utilize too. Once VZ oil started flowing to Indian refineries, only then US made a move on Iran. x.com/aravind/status… Again, remember what I had posted before: Russia is now in bed with the US. It will trade its oil to EU and India in USD too if needed. Because US has already given it such a great deal with respect to Ukraine war. Only after this deal, US went into Venezuela and now Iran. x.com/aravind/status… US is already world's largest oil producer - for a good reason they ramped up production so much. India is also buying US oil now. The US already is controlling shipping in middle east. It will escort tankers out of Iraq, Saudi, Qatar, Kuwait based on where they are heading. India, being one of the largest global refineries, will be allowed to get access on priority as Trump would not want oil prices to stay high to cause issues at home or benefit Russia too much. (This is why I'm worried some adversaries may target our refineries using this war as an excuse.) All the above means, due to short term disruptions and oil price increases, India will definitely have a little fuel and fertilizer crunch. But India can manage that. If the GoI decides, it may even absorb the price shock to keep petrol, LPG, and fertilizer prices stable. Indians should not worry too much. India is playing this very, very well. By the end of this year, India must have good access to cheap oil and very good influence and access in the middle east. For now just sit tight and ensure anti-India forces do not try to disrupt our peace and stability.