kevin lings

According to data from the US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, the Robotaxi programme in the US has about 9x the accident rate of human drivers. That is a lot higher than I would have expected.

Ten days ago a total of 137 ships went through the Strait of Hormuz including 73 oil tankers. Yesterday only 2 ships went through the Strait, one was a container ship and the other was a general cargo ship. The decline in shipping activity is massive

The daily under recovery on SA’s diesel price is up at 500c/l, while the under recovery on petrol is 266c/l. If those are the type of fuel price increases SA is going to experience in April then inflation will move sharply higher, undermining the chance of further rate cuts

SA consumer inflation a bit higher than market expectations in Jan at 3.5% despite a large decline in the fuel price. The upside surprise was partly due to a large increase in meat prices, which relates to the current foot and mouth disease. Meat inflation was measured at 13.5%

SA’s labour market data for Q4 2025, released today, shows that unemployment rate in Western Cape fell significantly further to 18.1%, while Gauteng is up at 33% and Eastern Cape surged to 42.5%. How the major cities are managed makes a big difference to people’s opportunities

President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as next Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Warsh served as a Fed Governor from 2006 to 2011. While Warsh has more recently supported cutting interest rates, he has been a long time critic of ultra low interest rates and the excessive use of QE

@BEEtycoon It is part of a well established pattern/trend

@lingskevin Is that a pattern or a once off?

Interesting to see stark differences in economic development of Western Cape vs Gauteng. For example during first 11 months of 2025 value of building plans passed in Western Cape increased by R2.678 billion year on year vs a decline of R4.285 billion in Gauteng over same period

South Africa inflation averaged 3.2% in 2025. That is the lowest annual inflation rate in South Africa in 22 years. Impressive, and should allow for a further reduction in interest rates

South African retail sales better than expected in November 2025 growing by 3.5%y/y. The market was expecting growth of 2.7%y/y. This would suggest that Black Friday spending was relatively robust especially the purchases of household appliances and equipment as well as cosmetics

According to data released today by the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics, 26% of people unemployed in the US have been out of work for than 6 months. That is the highest in almost 10 years if you exclude the immediate impact of the COVID lockdown

South Africa’s enterprise based employment survey reflected an increase of 29 000 formal sector jobs in the third quarter of 2025. Unfortunately over the past year this measure of employment is down 79 000, and down a very substantial 349 000 jobs over the past 2 years.

Moody’s decided to not adjust SA’s credit rating. Instead they highlighted the downside risks to SA growth from global headwinds, tariff disputes and heightened domestic political tensions. They indicated that an upgrade is possible if growth surprises further to the upside.

SA GDP grew by 0.5% quarter on quarter in Q3. This was in line with expectations, but previous quarter revised higher. Over past year SA grew by 2.1%, above expectations. Most economic sectors made a positive contribution in the quarter. More good news for SA, off a low base

US added 119 000 jobs in Sep, much more than expected, but the previous month was revised down to -4 000 jobs and the unemployment rate increased to 4.4%. Wage growth up more than expected at 3.8%. Not a clear message for the interest rate decision in December.

SA Reserve Bank cut rates by 25bps to 6.75%. This was widely anticipated. The MPC acknowledged the recent downward surprises to SA inflation. This is despite the fact that SA inflation has a modest upward bias. Since Aug 24 the bank has cut rates by a total of 150bps.

South African inflation rate went up from 3.4% in Sep to 3.6% in Oct. Despite the increase the outcome was once again better than expected. Most analysts expected inflation at 3.7%. Core inflation steady at 3.1%. Very little inflation pressure in SA, rate cut likely tomorrow

In upgrading SA’s credit rating S&P highlighted the tax revenue overrun, ongoing primary budget surplus, expenditure constraints, and SOEs needing less financial support. SA’s low growth was not enough to stop the upgrade. S&P maintaining SA on a positive outlook is good news.

S&P decided to upgrade SA’s credit rating from BB- to BB. In addition S&P has kept South Africa on a positive outlook. This is S&P’s first upgrade of SA’s credit rating in twenty years. Good news, but more progress is required to get back to Investment Grade

After 43 days the US gov shutdown has ended. The deal extends funding for most areas of government until 30 Jan 2026. Tax credit on affordable care act still unresolved and will expire at the end of this year. The Senate agreed to revisit the medical tax credit during Dec