loafy

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loafy

loafy

@loafy0

Political analyst | trading on @polymarket

Katılım Kasım 2021
956 Takip Edilen1.3K Takipçiler
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loafy
loafy@loafy0·
I spent years in the political risk forecasting space. But behind the scenes, I was getting destroyed in crypto. Made life-changing profits and immediately torched them because I had zero discipline. I finally realized I was better at analyzing real-world events than trading charts. Now, I’ve moved some liquidity to @Polymarket. It’s the only place where my professional background and trading drive might coexist profitably. I’ll be posting my trade ideas here, mostly politics. I don't bet on war, try to avoid sports and if it gets boring then I'll probably leave.
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loafy
loafy@loafy0·
@Eltonma Voice of a generation ❤️
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Elton Ma
Elton Ma@Eltonma·
I hope you don’t mind I hope you don’t mind that I put down in the words. How wonderful life is while you’re in the world.
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loafy
loafy@loafy0·
I remain highly sceptical on the ceasefire. It’s a tactical pause.
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loafy
loafy@loafy0·
@hardinpol It won’t matter. Kushner and Witkoff are there outright representing Israel and so will have every chance to derail it.
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loafy
loafy@loafy0·
Incredible that the Iranians are falling for it again.
loafy tweet media
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loafy
loafy@loafy0·
Taking this ceasefire with a heavy bag of 🧂
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loafy
loafy@loafy0·
The US/Israeli market manipulation during this war needs to be studied for how effective it is. Trump put out a post hinting at nuclear annihilation while simultaneously his team are leaking to Fox that talks are going well. Which is true? Nobody knows and so SPY is -0.42% 🤷‍♂️
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loafy
loafy@loafy0·
@hardinpol It’s a US domiciled platform with US regulators. They can’t upset Americans. That’s all it is.
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konrad@hardinpol·
@loafy0 precisely, i just don't get the fuzz rescuing the pilot or not was VALUABLE information
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konrad
konrad@hardinpol·
i may revel myself as a yuppie sociopath, but what was the problem with the rescue market? if it's the pilot being dead/alive, how is that any different from any 'leader xyz out by 2027' or the iranian pope markets? sorta reminds me of british reporters realizing there were only good, unbiased reporters on foreign wars they only pretended to care about and how different things looked sleeping in the barracks with your exhausted countrymen in the falklands
Internet Child@0xinternetchild

There is a LOT of pressure on @Polymarket to end Geopolitical markets ! The category that produces the most positive externalities by forecasting the *most important events* A month ago : They were forced under pressure to delete their "Nuclear detonation" market because some idiot made the argument that Kim Jong Un could blow a nuke to insider trade it for $100k Now : They are forced to delete the pilot rescue market because another pearl clutching moron i getting the "ick" from it (like a foid) As much is i would love them to stand their ground. We understand that when the country they are based in is at war, the pressure must be immense. Realistically, if they refused to cooperate in such context, it could go anywhere from new regulations to actual physical danger for @shayne_coplan and his staff. So right now i think their strategy is good : > Keep the important Iran war markets (Strait of Hormuz traffic, ceasfire date, invasion date) > Skip the "fun" market that don't provide much value but have great potential for controversy (Pilot rescue, nuclear bomb, strike on X location) and try to weather the storm. At the end of the day Polymarket is the ONLY place that lets us bet on those things, so if there was a serious crackdown on them, the whole concept of geopolitical bets could be buried for the next 20 years. I don't want that to happen so i think they are right to be cautious.

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loafy
loafy@loafy0·
There are dozens of markets on the death of people in the Middle East. Interesting that it’s this specific market that caused enough furore to get taken down.
Seth Moulton@sethmoulton

There is an ongoing search and rescue operation for a missing American service member whose plane was shot down over Iran. Their safety is unknown. They could be your neighbor, a friend, a family member. And people are betting on whether or not they'll be saved. This is DISGUSTING. Quick reminder too that @DonaldJTrumpJr is an investor in this dystopian death market and may have access to intelligence that isn't public yet.

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loafy
loafy@loafy0·
Complacency is absolutely thick in the air right now in many elite spaces. It’s incredible the kind of hubris which a near-20 year up only causes.
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loafy
loafy@loafy0·
Cue every commentator now being surprised at Trump’s escalatory speech yesterday. They’re pumping the market before it dumps.
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loafy
loafy@loafy0·
Case in point was this BBG headline yesterday. It’s total spin. The Iranian position is totally unchanged but the headline makes you believe otherwise.
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loafy
loafy@loafy0·
My reading of the US/Israel-Iran war is that the former side is playing a two sided game: war and market manipulation. Their goal is to thread the needle here: continue waging the war while managing market narrative. It’s working. The war is intensifying not calming.
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loafy
loafy@loafy0·
@game_for_one The Gulf states are all essentially US client states with no armies and very little agency which are wholly reliant on US for security. The idea that they can break away anytime soon is fanciful. It will take decades.
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loafy
loafy@loafy0·
I think the easy trades for the Iran conflict are over for now. It’s very difficult to have an edge in the current situation. I applaud those who are successfully trading it but I’ll wait.
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