
loafy
539 posts

loafy
@loafy0
Political analyst | trading on @polymarket


JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 President Trump orders US Navy to blockade all ships entering or leaving the Strait of Hormuz "effective immediately."


Arrival of the US Delegation for Islamabad Talks


Incredible that the Iranians are falling for it again.

One of our biggest interviews yet. Tomorrow. 6pm.


There is a LOT of pressure on @Polymarket to end Geopolitical markets ! The category that produces the most positive externalities by forecasting the *most important events* A month ago : They were forced under pressure to delete their "Nuclear detonation" market because some idiot made the argument that Kim Jong Un could blow a nuke to insider trade it for $100k Now : They are forced to delete the pilot rescue market because another pearl clutching moron i getting the "ick" from it (like a foid) As much is i would love them to stand their ground. We understand that when the country they are based in is at war, the pressure must be immense. Realistically, if they refused to cooperate in such context, it could go anywhere from new regulations to actual physical danger for @shayne_coplan and his staff. So right now i think their strategy is good : > Keep the important Iran war markets (Strait of Hormuz traffic, ceasfire date, invasion date) > Skip the "fun" market that don't provide much value but have great potential for controversy (Pilot rescue, nuclear bomb, strike on X location) and try to weather the storm. At the end of the day Polymarket is the ONLY place that lets us bet on those things, so if there was a serious crackdown on them, the whole concept of geopolitical bets could be buried for the next 20 years. I don't want that to happen so i think they are right to be cautious.

There is an ongoing search and rescue operation for a missing American service member whose plane was shot down over Iran. Their safety is unknown. They could be your neighbor, a friend, a family member. And people are betting on whether or not they'll be saved. This is DISGUSTING. Quick reminder too that @DonaldJTrumpJr is an investor in this dystopian death market and may have access to intelligence that isn't public yet.

MORE | Iran's Missile Threat🧵(1/3): The majority of Iranian ballistic missiles are combat-ineffective, even if they remain “intact.” - Assessing Iran’s missile threat accurately requires distinguishing between different missile types. The combined force has rendered many of Iran’s missile launchers combat ineffective, but it is entirely unclear whether these “launchers” refer to launchers for medium-range or short-range systems or whether any of the launchers are interchangeable between medium-range and short-range systems. - The rate of Iranian missile fire suggests that Iran’s medium-range ballistic missile force has been significantly degraded.



