Michaelangelopoulos

My mentor, who is an ex-SAC Capital PM, first thing he told me was "Do you want to be right or do you want to make money?"

@sagharborcap @beachbumcapital Yeah, welcome to how the stock market works.

PSA that only ~⅓ of $OWL AUM is direct lending, yet their stock is down almost 50% YTD entirely on direct lending concerns

@stockthoughts81 So talented.

This should be good!!

@inglouriouscap Do you want to be right or make money?

@Heady_Creek Okay yes, there are catalysts. That is true. I misspoke. Great short call by the way.

Well I just spoke to the management team and they don't like you either ;) Jokes aside, on March 9th we disclosed that we had been short $MTN previously. I had been short this stock since Christmas 2021 as part of a "short COVID winners" basket. The story was being mistaken for a recurring revenue model when there was nothing recurring about pass sales, just that they provided revenue visibility for more creative capital allocation. Lack of innovation, price consternation, and competitive dynamics in the cruise and parks industries were reasons why we held onto the short through 2025. "You can look at the Epic pass growth. It's been stalled out since FY 2024." ZOOM OUT MY MAN - that's only 2 seasons between then and now, including, as we've discussed, the worst weather season in 40 years! Make your own decisions, but I would not rest on the notion that there are no catalysts between now and...

If the second point in your bear case is that skier visits are down y/y when (a) this is the worst season on record and (b) most mountains are closing early because of warm weather and weak snow coverage, then you may as well drive forward using your rear view mirror. No one is hearing, anecdotally, that EPIC passes are down for next season - it's way too early to make any calls on 26/27, the passes for next year went on sale just a few weeks ago. $MTN

@Heady_Creek Right which supports my bet that the pass unit year-over-year growth will be weak in August or July when they report it.

@longbagzz My man, it's April 1st, mountains are closing earlier than they have in decades because of weather...even Warren Miller would be hesitant to buy a pass right now RIP

I will have to say I don't particularly like the management team. The dividend payout each fiscal year has been greater than free cash flow. I hear a lot of people are frustrated with their experience in the lines at the lifts. I feel like they should have taken the dividend dollars and used it to build more lifts to cut down on the traffic. Also a big part of my thesis is that pass growth has pretty much stalled. You can look at the Epic pass growth. It's been stalled out since FY2024. The TAM of skiers isn't getting any bigger. One of the big growth drivers was acquisitions, which they can't do now. That led to Epic Pass unit growth. That's one of the reasons why I don't think Epic Passes will grow again in the next couple years unless they start acquiring more resorts.

@longbagzz And there is a catalyst, or several, in the near term...

Okay I see what you're saying. Yes they did raise the price on the 30+; that is correct. I've talked to multiple people in Colorado and they're all just kind of scared. After this winter they don't want to spend $800 or $1,000 betting that next year will be a better winter, which might be a benefit for Vail because then maybe they'll buy it in the fall when prices are even higher. I don't know, just speculating

First off, your comment that pass prices are lower is factually incorrect. While they lowered the pass price for the "Gen Z" cohort (30 yrs and younger), they actually raised the price for other pass types by 3.3% to 4.4%. If you consider the inclusion of taxes in the 2026/2027 pass price, they actually raised the pass price by 6.6-6.9%. Even if you don't include taxes as part of the price increase, in aggregate pass prices are up modestly. If Gen Z skiers jump on the pass discount, thereby pushing the aggregate mix towards this discounted pass cohort, then sure the aggregate price may see pressure but the pricing initiative will be considered a success as it will draw in more young skiers with greater lifetime value. Secondly, regarding your BF from Denver, he/she could be right (does BF mean best friend or boyfriend?) as the period up to Memorial Day is historically an active period for pass purchases, but it is still too early to tell. Regardless, for the purposes of capital allocation and, specifically, the safety of the dividend, the company has already committed to holding it through this fiscal year ending in July.

@Heady_Creek also anecdotally have heard (my bf from denver) people are not going to buy epic pass in Q3 given uncertainty on weather. they are thinking forwards by looking backwards given how bad this winter was

@Heady_Creek I agree w you that it’s early to bet on next winter but no catalyst and they just announced pricing cuts - that’s why i’m short. this was a pricing story forever. I am not betting on a warm winter.

@1or1ktrades I've anecdotally heard skiers are less likely to buy the epic now after this winter given the uncertainty. Where do you see strong indication of buying passes? They only report % change in Q1, Q3 and Q4 reports

@longbagzz Think all these statements are generally true but no indication of weak buying for next season yet. Stock is at support so can't really short here imo

I am short $MTN - Cut pricing on their Epic Pass which is unprecedented aside from in 2021. - skier visits / volume down 12.5% yoy - a weak skiing season in N.A. creating - anecdotally hearing people not buying epic pass due to uncertainty around weather. - Not really cheap on an FCF/EV yield. End of the day: this is a deteriorating business and there is clearly a volume problem and now they are cutting prices to fix the volume problem. On high op leverage this crushes ebitda.

@BillAckman @jennablan Apparently bill doesn’t use technicals.

@gregoryblotnick Love this playbook

@gregoryblotnick Preach brother.

most important lesson I learned in my 30’s is that you cannot manage other people’s perceptions of u. I vividly remember being 34-35 and REALLY struggling with this so I'll explain. (1/7) people don't think, they feel. in your mind u assume that everything about u is being weighed rationally and using the power of reason in reality, there is no objective reality. we live in stories. we have stories of ourselves and who we believe ourselves to be. the other people in our midst are comprised of stories that we have subjectively written about them. and you, in turn, are nothing but a story to others. there isn't just one "story" - each story is subjective and unique based on the individual author in question. (2/7) to some people, u are viewed thru a favorable lens, a favorable story. everything u say or do is filtered thru this lens. their view of u is skewed (and incorrect) in that it's too rosy. their perception is too positive. to others, u are viewed thru a negative lens, a negative story. ur words and actions are painted with this brush on arrival. their perception is skewed and incorrect, just as the other person's was -- the only difference is the directional bias. one is too positive, one is too negative. in both cases, this is confirmation bias at work, and neither individual may even be aware of this information-filtering mechanism as it takes place. (3/7) what you need to understand, is that you are powerless to change either of these two perceptions. "you cannot manage someone else's perception of you." put another way, what other people think is none of your business. humans are wildly irrational. if you haven't noticed, people perceive all sorts of slights or insults that were either unintentional, and quite often, never even occured. imaginations run wild and ppl dream up scenarios where someone is their best friend or worst enemy - with zero basis in fact. (4/7) you will drive yourself CRAZY trying to empathize "why does this person think what they do?" because the truth, most of the time, is that they don't even know. the subconscious is something like 95% of brain activity on the high end, or "the vast majority of it" on the low end. we have a very, very limited understanding of what makes us think, feel, say, and do the things that we do. at some point, your actions, which are straightforward and logical to you, will be perceived on a wide spectrum by others. this will baffle you - how can all these people draw different conclusions about what I say or do, or even who I am as a human being? (5/7) but this is reality. you are perceived differently, you have a different "story," in the mind of every single person you will ever meet. is there room for their perception to shift positively or negatively based on your actions - of course. yet how much power do u have to control their overall perception of you? very, very little...a number, for your own sanity, best rounded in your own head to zero. (6/7) the output is "stop caring what other people think." this is not meant in a sociopathic or thoughtless light. it means that u should do what u believe to be right, and recognize that ur "sphere of influence" extends no further than that. you are powerless to shape how your words or actions are interpreted by the mind of a given recipient. there is intention, and there is perception. you can control your intention. you cannot control their perception. so don't overthink it, and as a broad way of operating, don't bother trying to manage how other people perceive u... because u simply can't. in the words of Buffett: “I have this complicated procedure I go through every morning, which is to look in the mirror and decide what I’m going to do. And I feel at that point, everybody’s had their say.” (7/7) paradoxically, what u will find is that u become a better person once u stop caring what other people think. it is very easy to bend over backwards trying to please other people, or at least doing what we perceive shall please them. in this process, it is very easy to do the wrong thing while believing it to be right; because it wasn't done for you, it was done for the sake of other people. yet in trying to manage other people's perception of u, u will not only drive yourself crazy, seeing as it doesn't work, but u will likely go astray, go against your own gut instinct, and effectively betray yourself. by short-circuiting all of this -- simply doing what you know in your heart to be right, giving it no further thought, and controlling only what lays in your control -- u will find yourself achieving better outcomes with less stress. that's why the lesson is so important. hth

@dickiebush + laundry / dry cleaning service (pickup and delivery)

A handful of things that are worth the money: - Eight Sleep - One $5000+ watch - Blackout curtains - Bamboo sheets - Uber Black - Home espresso machine - 1:1 skill tutoring - High-level masterminds - Standing desk - Herman Miller chair - Specced out MacBook Pro - Home sauna & cold plunge - Second work phone - AirPod Pros - Flying your friends in - Grass fed ribeyes - 1:1 personal training - The whole tab at group dinners - Home mobility station - The person behind you’s coffee - Flowers for your mom and girlfriend - Carbon steel pans - High-quality chef’s knife - Fresh socks every quarter - Premium gym membership - Luggage that doesn’t break - Max speed WiFi - Walking desk treadmill - A+ talent team members - Paid ads - Muji pens & journals - Maxxed out AI tools - New running shoes often - Sports massages - The newest iPhone - TSA PreCheck - Weekly house cleaner - Bedroom air purifier - Personal meal prep chef - Prescription blue light blocking glasses - Executive assistant - VIP tickets at music festivals - Full bloodwork panels 3x per year - Weekend getaways in dope Airbnbs - Weekly date nights - Tax strategist

I remain short $INVH on premise sunbelt fundamentals and 3P is showing zero signs of improvement. I think we could see a 10-12x FY2 FFO multiple soon.

REIT pairs trade idea: 1. Long $O 2. Short $EPRT Relative valuation is skewed towards O. Think you can pick up 5-8% on this trade.

@gregoryblotnick great point. I call it stock linkage analysis - charting fundamentals overlayed on multiple

reminder that these historical valuation charts tell u nothing on their own (i.e NTM P/E) if a multiple seems "cheap," pull charts of: -rev growth % -gross/ebit margin % -eps/fcf growth % -ROE/ROIC you'll see the multiple tracking fundamentals. mkt isnt dumb, its never easy...

Down 30% since posted! woof

Tech stock thought: One of my favorite shorts of the year and think there’s still some carnage left to go: $ADBE 10-12% organic grower in the base biz which is great. Mature company like most large caps. But the AI narrative overhang is strong and makes this not investable right now. Small ARR segment for the “pure AI” product <$500mm while base biz ARR Is >$15B. Am of the opinion they still need to prove themselves that they are an AI company. Do I think professional creatives will actually go replace photoshop for chat gpt? No.