Matt Fletcher

2.9K posts

Matt Fletcher banner
Matt Fletcher

Matt Fletcher

@longevitymatt

Actuary and longevity consultant in Aon’s Demographic Horizons team. Expect tweets mostly on mortality and longevity. Can divide by 7.

St Albans, England Katılım Mart 2015
140 Takip Edilen1.4K Takipçiler
Sabitlenmiş Tweet
Matt Fletcher
Matt Fletcher@longevitymatt·
CMI have saved me a job this week! Here's their version of standardised mortality by week, compared to the range in the equivalent week over the previous 10 years. Care needed again when comparing the latest week to previous analysis, due to Bank Holidays.
Matt Fletcher tweet media
English
11
40
91
0
Matt Fletcher
Matt Fletcher@longevitymatt·
@john_actuary @whippletom I played Ding Liren in simultaneous matches a couple of times before he won the World Champs- managed to get a draw in one of them. The secret was to play reasonably good moves and let him blunder a piece for no reason…
English
0
0
3
77
Matt Fletcher retweetledi
stuart mcdonald
stuart mcdonald@ActuaryByDay·
The CMI has released its weekly mortality monitor. Age-standardised death rates year to date continue to track the best year on record (2019) fairly closely. Death rates this week were back at the lower end of the 2011-19 range.
stuart mcdonald tweet mediastuart mcdonald tweet media
English
2
4
25
2.8K
Matt Fletcher
Matt Fletcher@longevitymatt·
@Jean__Fisch Hmmm will have a think! I know Australia’s 2022 season was very early too but seems to have shifted back towards “normal” in 2023 and 2024 (noting that the “normal” season has a spread around it anyway).
English
1
0
1
34
Jean Fisch
Jean Fisch@Jean__Fisch·
@longevitymatt I am still trying to understand exactly what this "shift forward effect" (assuming it's real) means so happy for any feedback, past experience or probing Q!
English
1
0
0
83
Jean Fisch
Jean Fisch@Jean__Fisch·
Over the recent weeks, mortality rates in Germany are: - almost at their highest in a decade among 65+ - yet continue to be at their lowest (ever) among the <65 (Chart inspired from CMI in the UK / Rates have been standardized ie corrected for population changes)
Jean Fisch tweet media
English
3
3
8
1.1K
Jean Fisch
Jean Fisch@Jean__Fisch·
@longevitymatt FWIW, here the mortality overview vs. pre-pandemic trends ... and assuming that the NPIs led to the winter peak to occur 6 weeks earlier as of 2021 This view of the world would make you conclude that there is excess currently and due to covid x.com/Jean__Fisch/st…
Jean Fisch@Jean__Fisch

Mortality situation in Germany The blue line is expected deaths from 2013-2019 linear trend of mortality rates, with the winter peak simply brought forward by 6 weeks vs pre-pandemic average Again, not much to see beyond - covid - some heat - a peak of flu in Spring 2023 1/3

English
1
0
1
85
Matt Fletcher retweetledi
stuart mcdonald
stuart mcdonald@ActuaryByDay·
The CMI has released its weekly mortality monitor. Age-standardised death rates this year have tracked the best year on record (2019) fairly closely and continue to do so. That’s despite deaths with Covid rising this week to the highest level since February.
stuart mcdonald tweet mediastuart mcdonald tweet media
English
4
2
17
3.5K
Matt Fletcher retweetledi
Karen Cutter
Karen Cutter@KarenCutter4·
UK life expectancy for 2021-2023 out today, showing an increase. The Aust figures are due out in about two weeks but will show a decline (our 2023 mortality was worse than our 2020)
stuart mcdonald@ActuaryByDay

A big increase in official life expectancy today as 2023 replaces 2020 in the 3-year average used in the calculation. However, life expectancy remains below pre-pandemic levels (2017-19). Life expectancy will predictably increase again next year (when 2024 replaces 2021).

English
5
12
76
3.9K
Matt Fletcher retweetledi
stuart mcdonald
stuart mcdonald@ActuaryByDay·
A big increase in official life expectancy today as 2023 replaces 2020 in the 3-year average used in the calculation. However, life expectancy remains below pre-pandemic levels (2017-19). Life expectancy will predictably increase again next year (when 2024 replaces 2021).
Office for National Statistics (ONS)@ONS

Life expectancy at birth in England & Wales in 2021 to 2023 was: • 79.0 years for males • 83.0 years for females Compared with 2020 to 2022, life expectancy has increased: • 13 weeks from 78.8 years for males • 11 weeks from 82.8 years for females ➡️ ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…

English
4
22
80
14.3K
stuart mcdonald
stuart mcdonald@ActuaryByDay·
@ArielKarlinsky To smooth out annual variation from typical bad winters and flu seasons. Historically the 3-year average approach has done a good job, with LE tending to rise, whereas the single-year life table is more volatile.
English
3
0
7
346
Jean Fisch
Jean Fisch@Jean__Fisch·
FWIW, here the mortality picture by occurrence date in England and Wales over the last decade One sees clearly how heat is a regular feature during the summer in England and Wales
Jean Fisch tweet media
English
1
0
2
269
Jean Fisch
Jean Fisch@Jean__Fisch·
Mortality in England and Wales by occurrence date, even if only approximated, makes one "see" heat spikes (after taking out covid ... here done imperfectly as ONS only published deaths by registration date) The pattern lately is compatible with heat spikes but 1/
Jean Fisch tweet media
English
2
0
6
634
Matt Fletcher retweetledi
stuart mcdonald
stuart mcdonald@ActuaryByDay·
Hospital admissions with Covid in England hit another peak in July - the highest since January. They are now decreasing, with the 7-day average falling by 14% in the last week of July. Hopefully this is now a sustained fall, in contrast to the dip reported at the end of June.
stuart mcdonald tweet media
English
7
51
144
33.9K
Matt Fletcher retweetledi
stuart mcdonald
stuart mcdonald@ActuaryByDay·
Deaths data has been released for week ending 19 Jul. 10,182 deaths were registered in England and Wales this week. Year-to-date there have been 325,255 deaths registered. 1,344 deaths involved flu or pneumonia. 234 involved Covid-19 - the highest seen since February.
stuart mcdonald tweet media
English
5
25
69
14.2K
Matt Fletcher retweetledi
stuart mcdonald
stuart mcdonald@ActuaryByDay·
Deaths data has been released for week ending 5 Jul. 10,333 deaths were registered in England and Wales this week. Year-to-date there have been 304,538 deaths registered, 6% fewer than expected by ONS. CMI analysis of age-standardised mortality rates is expected later today.
stuart mcdonald tweet media
English
3
11
26
16.6K
Matt Fletcher retweetledi
stuart mcdonald
stuart mcdonald@ActuaryByDay·
The CMI has released both its weekly Mortality Monitor and its more detailed quarterly summary. Mortality in England & Wales in the first half of 2024 was similar to the record lows seen in the first half of 2019.
stuart mcdonald tweet media
English
2
13
38
13.1K
Matt Fletcher
Matt Fletcher@longevitymatt·
Delays in death registration are always (much) longer for males in this age group than others (e.g. 92 days for 2021) as a significant proportion need to be certified by a coroner. But 114 days is even longer than usual.
English
0
1
4
184
Matt Fletcher
Matt Fletcher@longevitymatt·
Looking a bit more closely at the recently published death registration delays data (x.com/longevitymatt/…) - for males in the 15-44 age band, the median delay between death and registration is *114 days*! (all other age bands are 6-9 days, females aged 15-44 is 15 days)
Matt Fletcher@longevitymatt

It's important to be aware of this as (amongst other things) it impacts on how we understand the extent and timing of excess mortality - for example we know that an unusually high number of deaths that occurred in December 2022 weren't registered until early 2023.

English
2
6
10
4.3K

Keşfet

@john_actuary @whippletom @Jean__Fisch @ActuaryByDay @ArielKarlinsky @elonmusk @BarackObama @taylorswift13