Long River Holding

I don’t start with stock charts or multiples. I start with one question: How does reported profit turn into real cash? Profit is accounting. Cash is reality. And over time, cash compounds. Net income is shaped by rules, estimates, and timing. Cash obeys no narrative. Businesses that create durable wealth aren’t always the ones with the highest reported earnings — they’re the ones that convert earnings into free cash flow efficiently and consistently. My framework: Net Income → Operating Cash Flow → Free Cash Flow → Capital Allocation Follow the cash to see the true character of a business. Onto the next one! (used $PLTR as an example for fun)

@FinX9949770 Interesting. What’s your take on this M&A deal?

@longriverCM Near term yes. negotiation anchoring at play. Cohen is calling the market top. He starts above his walk-away price, lets macro gravity do the work, then re-engages when the plunging stock price has done the negotiating for him.

GameStop, $GME, is offering to buy eBay $EBAY at $125/share per WSJ. This would be a ~20% premium to eBay’s closing price on Friday, meaning an implied market cap of $55 billion. $GME GameStop currently holds about $9 billion in cash. To fund a $56 billion deal, the company has reportedly secured a $20 billion debt commitment from TD Bank, but the remaining balance would require massive stock issuance, significantly diluting current shareholders.  A combined entity would create a scaled consumer marketplace specifically for collectibles, trading cards, and used goods—categories where $EBAY has recently refocused its strategy and where GameStop already has a devoted core audience. Historically, it is extremely rare for a company to successfully target another four times its size without crumbling under the interest payments of the debt used to finance the deal.  To me, the deal represents a high-stakes gamble that could leave the combined company dangerously over-leveraged in a volatile retail market.  Will we see $GME drops when market opens? This M&A deal by @ryancohen feels a bit of expensive and hail-Maryish to me.

Our offer is $125.00 per share, comprising 50% cash and 50% GameStop common stock, with full shareholder election rights as to consideration type and pro-rata allocation. That represents a 46% premium to eBay’s unaffected closing price on February 4, 2026, the day GameStop started accumulating its position in eBay, a 27% premium to the 30-day VWAP, and a 36% premium to the 90-day VWAP. Aggregate undiluted equity value is approximately $55.5 billion. I guess the synergy Ryan expects must be crazy. I hope he is catching this Hail-Mary pass.

“No Salary, No Cash Bonus, No Golden Parachute” You kinda have to respect the man.

@FinX9949770 Bid will fail? I’d love to hear more! What’s your thesis?

@longriverCM Bid will fail but cohen is probing his options and gauging reactions - valuable to his eventual acquisition

@dayetweets Wonder what would they do next. Fanatics would be a good M&A target too.

@longriverCM The synergies are there with him wanting to go all-in on collectibles. If only $EBAY was 5x smaller.

@Mr_Derivatives I sold something on $EBAY. Never bought anything from it tho.

Trying a field study report: ❤️ if you never used Ebay ever in your life. Like me. Never once.

@dayetweets If he bets on first party consumer data and payment network, that can be a unique perspective. Not sure why but the dilution would be crazy. And i am not entirely sure why he is buying this out of all options.

@longriverCM I couldn’t agree more.

@dayetweets It’s a bit too expensive at my liking! I wonder if he sees anything else we don’t see. And to me, the bigger problem is that they can better other cash flow heavy businesses at a cheaper rate.

@longriverCM $ebay is great but this deal makes no sense.

RT @longriverCM: GameStop, $GME, is offering to buy eBay at $125/share per WSJ. This would be a ~20% premium to eBay’s closing price on Fr…

$JD’s grocery store in shanghai. Look at the crowd. Leveraging $JD’s "Asia No. 1" warehouse in Shanghai, the company ensures high-speed delivery, sometimes promising as fast as 9-minute delivery for urgent orders. I like this move by JD.com and am bullish on this expansion.

@mzakaria Yes, I’d assume that at that point, they won’t be able to generate more than 1 dollar of return with 1 dollar of capital.

@longriverCM would be the official raising of the white flag. Literally telling people, i don't know what to do with your money. here you go with tax liability.

Dividend seems like an interesting option for $BRK.A $BRK.B going forward

$HSBC I am keeping this one on my watch list. The recovery of the IPO pipeline and the Hong Kong real estate market are two primary pillars for HSBC's 2026 growth opportunity. After several years of stagnation, the Hong Kong IPO market has seen a massive resurgence in early 2026. In Q1 2026, Hong Kong raised HK$109.9 billion across 40 new listings—nearly six times the capital raised in the same period in 2025. As a dominant lead underwriter and custodian in the region, HSBC captures significant "Capital Markets & Professional Practice" fees from these listings. Hong Kong's residential real estate market, a core component of $HSBC loan book, is showing definitive signs of a broad-based recovery as of March 2026. A stabilizing property market reduces the need for the bank to set aside large Expected Credit Loss (ECL) provisions. In 2025, HSBC already saw a reduction in the "maturity wall" for property developers to just $2.6 billion, easing refinancing fears. Forecasts suggest property transactions will rise to 65,000–70,000 units in 2026 (a ~10% year-over-year increase), directly boosting $HSBC mortgage lending volume. My buy target on $HSBC ADR share is around ~$72. One thing I want to call it out. In 2025, HSBC reported $4.9 billion in "notable items" that significantly depressed its reported profit. The bank set aside $1.4 billion for legal provisions in 2025 alone. A major red flag was the $2.1 billion impairment related to its associate, Bank of Communications (BoCom), reflecting valuation stress in the Chinese banking sector. The bank also recorded $1.5 billion in losses following the disposal of its French retail banking portfolio. Earning is on May 5th. I hope it's an opportunity for me to open a position.

How about every day Michael?

Buffett’s primary achievement is the creation of a wealth-compounding engine that functions at maximum capacity even in volatile environments. Abel has shown a willingness to prune the capital structure, evidenced by a $2.9 billion reduction in insurance-related debt to improve the credit profile of the core segments. In essence, the transition confirms that while the "Oracle" has left the stage, the "Operator" has arrived with a war chest that allows $BRK.A $BRK.B to buy the world when everyone else is selling it. I am a proud holder and will remain a proud holder.

Happy Sunday Everyone! Hope you all enjoyed $BRK.A $BRK.B's stakeholder meeting yesterday. I love that Abel was firm that Berkshire would not participate in the general market "hype" and would only use AI for practical applications. "We will never adopt AI for the sake of AI; its deployment must tangibly create business value...AI must bring substantial benefits to our business. We will deploy AI in a focused manner, oriented towards creating tangible value." My type of investment!