Manoj Kothari
3.7K posts
Manoj Kothari
@lookinbard
Foresight | Strategy | Design Thinking | Author - Skyway Interpreter & Madhurimayan . CEO Turian Labs
The US will get its first refinery in 50 years thanks to India and its Reliance Industries. I would assume it will be able to refine Venezuela crude, which the US de-facto controls now. This signal came when VZ oil sanctions were lifted. Similarly, the US will de-facto control a lot of Iran crude later this year, which means it will lift all sanctions on Iranian oil too. That will be the signal the US is calling the shots on Iran oil. So ignore the noise saying "the US isn't controlling Iran's oil" then. These are also the ones to say "the US isn't controlling VZ oil" now, due to biased and ideological analysis of geopolitical events. I believe this new unsanctioned Iran crude will flow to India for refining. So will a lot of other crude from the middle east. Russia will start selling oil to Europe with all US sanctions lifted too is my opinion. China will get its energy, but its Russian crude will become limited. All other oil heading to China will be US controlled via its allied governments and controlled shipping routes. Oil prices will go to 75, then 65 (pre war), then below 60, according to my analysis as of now, by the next year.
Indian IT services companies sat on billions of dollars on their balance sheet for decades. Invested nothing on R&D and in securing their future. They forgot, if you are not inventing future, you become past. Now is their time of reckoning!! Thoughts?
Why Reliance Cancelled Plans to Produce Lithium-Ion Battery in India 1. Hithium is a tiny Chinese battery maker (1/200th in size of RIL) 2. This tiny firm refused to license its tech to India's most powerful group. India’s Critical Import Dependence for Strategic Technologies: Reliance Wants to Move from Fossil Fuels to Clean Tech, But Without Risk or Effort a. Reliance (RIL) earns nearly $10 billion in annual net profits as a group. But due to a protectionist domestic market, it has no culture of investing in innovation and no motivation to compete globally. b. RIL has not invested in R&D capabilities for cutting-edge lithium battery production or other clean technologies that are the future of the world. c. It has no patents, design knowledge, product formulations, or manufacturing process knowhow to create next-generation competitive cell technology in-house. d. A small, private company like Hithium (established in 2019) has been spending hundreds of millions of dollars every year in R&D to develop repeatable, high-yield processes that cannot be easily copied by others without deep expertise or investment. e. It takes years of experimentation, trial production, pilot plants, safety labs, specialized R&D teams, advanced equipment, iterative optimization, and high failure rates to develop such technologies at scale. f. RIL and other Indian companies are not interested as they have easier ways to dominate a protected domestic market. So, India remains heavily technology-dependent on the rest of the world. g. Due to decades of R&D neglect by the Indian industry and faulty policies of successive administrations, India does not have the ecosystem required to innovate, build, scale production, and compete globally in even the most basic technologies. h. In absence of a tech industry or ecosystem, India does not have the required elite pool of talent – research teams, battery scientists, process engineers, quality & reliability engineers, and equipment and automation specialists. i. India does not have massively integrated supply chains like China, starting with advanced mining and refining capabilities (for critical battery raw materials), production of chemical precursors (cathode/anode), specialized manufacturing equipment, and R&D and testing infrastructure. What is Required to Build a Vertically Integrated Materials-to-Cell Supply Chain for Lithium Battery and Other Cutting-edge Technologies in India 1. Long-horizon, patient capital in R&D. 2. Culture of innovation & failure-tolerance. 3. Celebrating technological wins instead of financial market wins (with globally incompetent promoters who are on the Forbes rich list due to a protectionist economy and an overvalued stock market.) @arabicatrader
The volcanic eruption of Hayli Gubbi in Ethiopia has once again shown how interconnected our climate systems are. As the ash plume travelled thousands of kilometres towards India, cities like Delhi and Jaipur saw noticeably hazier skies, with a thin grey layer lingering through the afternoon due to drifting sulphur dioxide and fine ash particles at high altitude. Mumbai also reported mild haze, though weaker because the plume passed further north. Experts say such long-range atmospheric transport is becoming more common as global wind patterns shift under climate change. While ground-level pollution impact remains limited, this event is a stark reminder of how fragile air quality becomes when natural and climate-driven disturbances collide — across continents. (Punetimesmirror, volcanic ash, climate change, atmospheric transport, India air quality, Ethiopia eruption, sulphur dioxide, haze impact, shifting wind patterns, global climate systems, environmental alert) #Punetimesmirror #ClimateImpact #VolcanicAsh #AirQualityIndia #GlobalWinds #EnvironmentalAlert #HazySkies #ClimateChange #SO2Levels #AtmosphericScience #IndiaWeather