Luis Sanzo González

Why Budanov and Trump are not able or even INTENDING to end the war in Ukraine. On the one hand, head of Ukraine's presidential administration Kyrylo Budanov has been making pro-ceasefire statements, is positive towards Trump, was trained by the CIA, and has even been supportive of the 'pro-Russian' Ukrainian Orthodox Church recently. However, I think hopes of a Budanov-engineered peace are misguided. First, because Budanov is, paradoxically, weaker than ever. His rival, Andriy Yermak, though formally replaced by Budanov, still controls government through his innumerable proxies in the halls of power. Zelensky supports Yermak's remote control, and both of them prefer continued, indefinite war. Even if Budanov wanted to end the war, he can't get anything done. Second, because the Trump strategy isn't simply peace with Russia at any cost. Trump only wants Ukraine to accept Russia's terms out of the hope that this would attract Moscow to Washington's side against China. But Russia is unwilling to abandon its neighbor China for the distant USA, a competitor in energy markets. China will always be the same, but a rabidly anti-Russian Democrat government could quite likely return in 2028. So why turn China into its enemy in favor of the fickle USA? And so, Trump has spent the past year actually increasing military support to Ukraine. According to the NYT, he gave the green light on seriously damaging, CIA-coordinated Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure. And Trump-aligned Palantir continues deepening its military cooperation with the Ukrainian government. Trump's aim is to make Moscow agree to abandon its alliance with China by increasing military costs. But since Moscow won't do that, the war continues indefinitely. Trump could easily cripple the Ukrainian army if he actually wanted them to accept Russia's demands. Cut off Starlink, cut off intelligence sharing, stop sending Ukraine weapons through the PURL program. Instead, the opposite. The only conclusion is that continuation of the war is in his interests. That's why despite rhetorical conflict, there is little difference between Washington and London/Brussels. For different reasons, they are all committed to continued war by Ukrainian hands. Finally, if you actually look at Budanov's rhetoric, he isn't advocating an end to the war. Instead, he shames draft-dodgers and calls to intensify mobilization. Quite consistent with the Trumpian strategy of increasing costs on Russia. Read my full article in reply.