Luke Miller

Turnout isn't just motivation or mobilization. It is an equilibrium of both. To evaluate reforms, we need tools that account for how voters and campaigns react to each other. Paper: lukebmiller.github.io/files/JMP_luke… Website: lukebmiller.github.io 🎓 I'm on the 2025-26 Job Market.(8/8)

Counterfactual 3: A National Popular Vote Under an NPV, every vote adds to the national tally. This triggers a double boost in "safe" states: Effort: Campaigns stop ignoring them. Efficacy: Voters finally see their ballot as pivotal. Result: +5 million votes nationally. (7/8)

How would a National Popular Vote or Campaign Spending Caps alter U.S. elections? My JMP develops a structural model to evaluate these reforms by solving the strategic feedback loop between voters and campaigns. 🧵 (1/8) #EconJobMarket lukebmiller.github.io/files/JMP_luke…