Lupa Financeira

Seja bem-vindo à Lupa Financeira! Aqui você terá acesso a relatórios que ajudarão os investidores a analisar as empresas da B3. Todos os relatórios podem ser encontrados em lupafinanceira.substack.com Não é recomendação de investimentos.

You don’t need 60% enriched uranium for energy purposes. They were approaching the 90%. Do you really think they care about the Palestinians? They don’t care about their own children! If they could try to destroy Israel with nuclear weapons they would do. They are fanatic terrorists!

@lupafin @nfergus You can believe whatever you want, doesn’t mean your “belief” is true. Dropping nuclear weapons on Israel could kill huge numbers of Palestinians and have widespread impact across Lebanon, Jordan, Syria, and Egypt. 60% is not bomb level, that’s 90%+

Let me walk you through the events of the war so far: 1. The United States and Israel tried regime change; it didn’t work. Or rather, they got regime change—Iran became an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps–led military dictatorship. That was not an improvement. 2. The U.S. won an overwhelming military victory with air and naval power and scarcely a boot on the ground. But it destroyed less of Iran’s missile- and drone-launching capabilities than at first appeared. 3. Then there was a hostage crisis. Iran took both the Gulfies and the Strait of Hormuz hostage. The result was a massive economic shock for the world that required a rapid resolution. 4. The choice was between 1) military escalation (boots on the ground or strikes on Iranian infrastructure), and 2) a diplomatic deal. Trump chose 2. 5. In Islamabad, the U.S proposed big economic concessions in return for some kind of change in the status of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, as well as the reopening of the strait. Contrary to the president’s social media feed, the Iranians did not accept. 6. In any case, the devil of any deal will be in the details, not the Truth headline. (When the small print finally comes out, every former Obama and Biden official will be ready to tell The New York Times that it’s worse than the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.) 7. Meanwhile, the Iranians have survived regime change and discovered that closing the strait is just as powerful a lever in economic warfare as they had always hoped. It’s not, despite the Russian quip, an “economic nuke,” because unlike a nuclear weapon you can use it. 8. Where we go from here is fairly predictable. I would be surprised if Trump now deploys ground forces. There will be more negotiation, so Islamabad, here we come. There may have to be more bombing, if the Iranians dust down the North Vietnamese playbook of stringing the U.S. negotiators along. And the final compromise will take longer to be agreed upon than Mr. Market currently believes. The consensus in prediction markets is this will be over by the end of May, but remember: It took Henry Kissinger more than four months to get the 1973–1974 oil embargo lifted.

@cbone287 @nfergus So why do you think they needed 60% enriched uranium??? Of course they wanted a bomb and if they got it, they would launch immediately at Israel. I don’t have any doubts about it.

@lupafin @nfergus Jesus, you’re still selling this non-sense? If the Iranians would have wanted the bomb, they would have had one - not just HEU

@SteveRulesAll01 @nfergus The uranium is probably trapped underground. And even if they can get it, they will need to rebuild all the capabilities to get the bomb, without the scientists that were eliminated. Be prepared to wait a long time.

@lupafin @nfergus They still have the uranium. Mission failed.

@roniclever1975 @crisinveste Ele não esqueceu. Essa tabela se refere a 2027.

@crisinveste O analista da XP deve ter esquecido que a Brava tinha 17MM de barris com hedge entre 63-75$ até dez/26. Isso muda tudo. A começar pelo fato de que imposto de exportação é royalties são calculados com base no valor de referência da liquidação física. Olha o prejuízo disso.

XP

𝐕𝐃𝐇: 𝐈𝐑𝐀𝐍 𝐉𝐔𝐒𝐓 𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐓 𝐀 𝐇𝐀𝐋𝐅 𝐓𝐑𝐈𝐋𝐋𝐈𝐎𝐍 𝐃𝐎𝐋𝐋𝐀𝐑𝐒 𝐀𝐍𝐃 𝐈𝐓𝐒 𝐄𝐍𝐓𝐈𝐑𝐄 𝐌𝐈𝐋𝐈𝐓𝐀𝐑𝐘. 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐌𝐄𝐃𝐈𝐀 𝐖𝐎𝐍'𝐓 𝐓𝐄𝐋𝐋 𝐘𝐎𝐔. Victor Davis Hanson just did what no one in legacy media will do. He looked at the Iran war empirically. The verdict isn't close. Iran — 𝟗𝟑 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐩𝐞𝐨𝐩𝐥𝐞, the largest military power in the Middle East by every measure, feared by the Gulf monarchies and Europeans alike — has just suffered one of the most lopsided asymmetric defeats in modern history. Hanson: "𝘐𝘵'𝘴 𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘺 𝘶𝘯𝘶𝘴𝘶𝘢𝘭 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘴𝘪𝘥𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘴 𝘣𝘦𝘦𝘯 𝘴𝘰 𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘪𝘰𝘶𝘴 𝘪𝘯 𝘢𝘯 𝘢𝘴𝘺𝘮𝘮𝘦𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘤 𝘸𝘢𝘳, 𝘦𝘴𝘱𝘦𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘺 𝘢𝘨𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘴𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘰𝘯𝘨𝘦𝘴𝘵 𝘱𝘰𝘸𝘦𝘳 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘔𝘪𝘥𝘥𝘭𝘦 𝘌𝘢𝘴𝘵." The scorecard: Iran has lost 𝐡𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐫𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 — possibly 𝐡𝐚𝐥𝐟 𝐚 𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐝𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐚𝐫𝐬 — in a half-century of investment in missiles, drones, submarines, and capital ships. Gone. Their command and control is "𝘥𝘰𝘸𝘯 𝘵𝘰 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘴𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘥 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘳𝘥 𝘵𝘪𝘦𝘳." Nobody — not the theocracy, not the IRGC, not the political class, not the army — knows who's actually in charge. They're afraid of each other. They're afraid to look soft. And they're afraid that cutting a deal means "𝘸𝘦'𝘳𝘦 𝘢𝘭𝘭 𝘨𝘰𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘦 𝘥𝘦𝘢𝘥 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘸𝘦'𝘷𝘦 𝘥𝘰𝘯𝘦." Meanwhile, the American left spent one day calling Trump a warmonger and a "𝘏𝘪𝘵𝘭𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘢𝘯 𝘧𝘪𝘨𝘶𝘳𝘦." The next day, after he announced negotiations, they called him a "𝘵𝘢𝘤𝘰" — a Neville Chamberlain, a Jimmy Carter. Hanson nailed the pathology. They don't analyze the war empirically. They analyze it politically. In his words, Tom Friedman and Bill Kristol "𝘢𝘭𝘮𝘰𝘴𝘵 𝘧𝘦𝘦𝘭 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘢𝘯𝘺𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘩𝘢𝘱𝘱𝘦𝘯𝘴 𝘯𝘦𝘨𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘦𝘭𝘺 𝘪𝘯 𝘐𝘳𝘢𝘯 𝘮𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵 𝘣𝘦 𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘦 𝘣𝘦𝘤𝘢𝘶𝘴𝘦 𝘪𝘵 𝘸𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥 𝘩𝘶𝘳𝘵 𝘋𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭𝘥 𝘛𝘳𝘶𝘮𝘱." 𝟏𝟎𝟎,𝟎𝟎𝟎 𝐀𝐦𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐧 𝐬𝐨𝐥𝐝𝐢𝐞𝐫𝐬 are in that theater right now. Risking their lives to make sure Iran never puts a nuclear-tipped missile on Tel Aviv, London, or eventually Chicago. And half the political class is 𝐫𝐨𝐨𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚𝐠𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐬𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐦𝐢𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧 because of who's in the Oval Office. Read that again. And the losers don't stop at Tehran. 𝐑𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐚: no more Venezuela. No more Latin America. No more Middle East. Assad is gone. The drone pipeline with Iran is severed. Bogged down in Ukraine, bleeding over a million and a half casualties. 𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚: took 80 percent of all Iranian oil. That pipeline is now contingent on the United States. And Beijing just watched America broadcast to the world that it's about to mass-produce a half-million to a million drones. Any fantasy of crossing 110 nautical miles to take Taiwan just got a lot more expensive. 𝐄𝐮𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐞, in Hanson's words, is "𝘢 𝘣𝘪𝘨 𝘭𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘳." We asked them for bases and airspace. That was it. Spain closed its embassy in Israel — "𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘢𝘭𝘭 𝘱𝘳𝘢𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘭 𝘱𝘶𝘳𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘴, 𝘚𝘱𝘢𝘪𝘯 𝘪𝘴 𝘢 𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘭𝘪𝘨𝘦𝘳𝘦𝘯𝘵." France wouldn't let us use its airpower or clean up H-z-b in Lebanon, its own post-colonial responsibility. Italy wouldn't let our bombers land in Sicily. The United Kingdom — the nation that built the Royal Navy — "𝘤𝘢𝘯'𝘵 𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘯 𝘴𝘦𝘯𝘥 𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘥𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘰𝘺𝘦𝘳" to protect its own base in Cyprus. Turkey, a NATO member, is openly siding with Iran and threatening a NATO partner, Israel. Hanson's verdict: "𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘣𝘭𝘦𝘮 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘕𝘈𝘛𝘖, 𝘯𝘢𝘮𝘦 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺." Going forward, the United States will pick and choose which NATO members are actually worth the alliance. The rest are "𝘦𝘪𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳 𝘯𝘦𝘶𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘭 𝘰𝘳 𝘩𝘰𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘭𝘦." And the Strait of Hormuz? The left spent two weeks shrieking that closure would end the world. Reality: it carries 𝟐𝟎 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭 of world oil, 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝟖𝟎. The Saudis are expanding their Red Sea pipeline. The Emirates are expanding theirs. A pipeline across the desert through Jordan to Haifa is on the table. Within a few years, the Gulf "𝘮𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺 𝘴𝘦𝘳𝘷𝘦 𝘐𝘳𝘢𝘯." Their leverage becomes their liability. If the war ends in two or three weeks, Hanson estimates seven months to economic recovery. Then comes the realization. Iran is not threatening the Middle East. Iran has no ballistic missile threat. Iran has no immediate path to a nuclear weapon. Iran has no military. Its command and control is wiped out. Its population is stewing. "𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘤𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥 𝘣𝘦 𝘭𝘪𝘬𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘧𝘢𝘭𝘭 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘉𝘦𝘳𝘭𝘪𝘯 𝘞𝘢𝘭𝘭." Not the next day. Not the next month. But within months — or within two years, like the Soviet Union — regime change. This war was fought on Western American terms. No Fallujah. No house-to-house in Taji. No villages in Afghanistan where you can't tell friend from enemy. The asymmetry — by design — was total. The 24-hour news cycle will keep shrieking. The Democrat-media borg will keep cycling through whichever narrative hurts Trump most that morning. But the map has already been redrawn. 𝐑𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐚 𝐢𝐬 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝. 𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚 𝐢𝐬 𝐡𝐮𝐦𝐛𝐥𝐞𝐝. 𝐄𝐮𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐝. 𝐈𝐫𝐚𝐧 𝐢𝐬 𝐡𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐰. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐚𝐝𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬 𝐭𝐨𝐨𝐤 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐲 𝐛𝐚𝐜𝐤. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐚𝐤 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐦𝐬𝐞𝐥𝐯𝐞𝐬.

@PedroCerize @luigiwis Ou essa taxa é interessante, ou as ações não deveriam estar subindo 35% neste ano. Um dos 2 está errado.

@luigiwis Carrego? Já viu o tamanho da dívida?

Carrego interessante, pode entregar o equivalente a 120% do CDI isento, considerando dados da curva de hoje.

@crisinveste Desmentiu, mas com a clássica expressão "neste momento"...

#brav3 desmentiu os rumores d que ecopetrol estaria negociando comprar participação por 26 reais Que bom. Eu achei o preço muito baixo

A retirada do poison pill faz com que eles não precisem comprar 100% das ações. Mas para pagar prêmio para alguns acionistas, precisam fazer uma oferta proporcional para todo o mercado. Podem, por exemplo, comprar 30% de todos os acionistas a 26. Inclusive, a reportagem diz que haverá oferta parcial.

@MonitorMercado Eu já suspeitava que algo do tipo estava rolando, dado o forte movimento de compra dos últimos dias, alheio aos rumos do petróleo. Acontece que retiraram a cláusula de poison pill e tanto faz se pagarem 20 ou 26 ou 30 para Jive, Bradesco e Yellowstone.

Ecopetrol pode fechar compra de fatia da Brava Energia #BRAV3 a R$ 26/ação - um prêmio de cerca de 30% sobre o preço atual. A estatal colombiana já teria aprovado a operação internamente e deve formalizar a oferta nos próximos dias. 👉Entenda os bastidores: monitordomercado.com.br/noticias/36929…

Lula: “Muita gente achou que eu não ia voltar… o político quando rouba se esconde. Eu não, em vez de me esconder fui pra cima dos acusadores.” Ou seja: “EU ROBEI E NÃO ME ESCONDI” Admitiu né ?

@crisinveste Isso é exatamente o que o Irã faz com Israel. Só que os sistemas de defesa abatem 90% dos mísseis.

mais uma ameaça de crime de guerra Carpet bombing (bombardeio em tapete ou saturação) é uma tática militar que consiste no lançamento massivo e indiscriminado de um grande número de bombas não guiadas sobre uma área específica. O objetivo é causar devastação total, cobrindo todo o local como um "tapete", destruindo infraestruturas e alvos militares dentro desse perímetro.

An Israeli Arab SHOCKS the interviewer: "I'm an Arab Israeli. Israel is my country. I'm fighting for my country. Israel gives me freedom of religion and speech. Why would I fight Israel? I’m a proud Arab Israeli. I'll fight Hamas." This MUST go viral.

@BHM_Options A coluna "Variação Estoque" está estranha. Os valores estão muito elevados (variação de bilhões de ações em um dia, mais do que o número de ações existentes para as empresas). Vale a pena dar uma verificada.

BREAKING: 🚨🇪🇸 The Ayatollah of Spain has officially removed its ambassador to Israel in solidarity with the Ayatollah of Iran.

“As estratégias de defesa dos ministros [do STF] até agora são escandalosas”, disse o senador Alessandro Vieira na CPI do Crime Organizado. “Essa, sim, é uma crise que ameaça a nossa democracia.” Assista ao vídeo. Transcrevo abaixo.👇🧵🧶 [Saiba mais: youtube.com/felipemourabra…]

Iranians in Athens gathering in front of the Israeli embassy to thank Israel for eliminating Khamenei 👇

@HenMazzig Brazil’s president Lula is supporting Iran too.

Against the regime in Iran: 🇮🇱Israel 🇺🇸USA 🇬🇧UK 🇶🇦Qatar 🇸🇦Saudi Arabia 🇯🇴Jordan 🇪🇬Egypt 🇧🇭Bahrain 🇦🇪United Arab Emirates 🇴🇲Oman 🇦🇪UAE 🇰🇼Kuwait 🇨🇾Cyprus 🇱🇧Lebanon Supporting the regime: 🇷🇺Russia 🇨🇳China 📟Hezbollah ☠️Hamas 🚢Houthis 💅Cynthia Nixon 🚮 Jeremy Corbyn 🚮🚮 Candace Owens 🇵🇸🌈Queers for Palestine

“Se tiver filho meu metido nisso, ele será investigado”, disse Lula em dezembro. Essa é a base de Lula na CPMI do INSS manifestando voto contrário à quebra de sigilos de Lulinha.👇 Uma imagem vale mais que mil palavras. (Acompanhe meu canal: @felipemourabrasil" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">youtube.com/@felipemourabr….)

Por que o PT não está assinando?