Macro-Advisory Ltd

I spoke with CGTN TV to discuss Russia’s position following the easing of certain U.S. sanctions on oil exports. The interview link is below. #Russia #Sanctions #Oil youtube.com/watch?v=DMjquX…

I participated in a very interesting discussion on Al-Jazeera TV yesterday about the impact of the Iran war on energy markets, concerning Russia and EU energy positions in particular. Here is the link to the program m.youtube.com/watch?v=F_PdgD… #OOTT #Russia #EUEnergy #Iran #IranWar‌

The same factor has helped Azerbaijan. President Aliyev is feted in the White House, and the country is promising to send more gas and green electricity to the EU. That, it seems, is enough to improve the country’s ranking to 130th from 157th three years ago. So, not so much a survey giving useful guidance to actual corruption trends, but a survey of political perception and reflecting headlines about corruption, whether good or bad is less important. #Eurasia #Georgia   #Azerbaijan   #Russia   #Corruption #Kazakhstan    #Belarus   #Ukraine

Transparency International has published the annual Corruption Perception survey for 2025. Within the Eurasia region, only Azerbaijan has shown a meaningful improvement, from 154th place in 2024 to 130th in 2025. Ukraine and the Kyrgyz Republic recorded modest gains. Belarus and Mongolia dropped 10 places (each from joint 114th to joint 124th) and Kazakhstan fell 8 places to 96th #Eurasia #Georgia   #Azerbaijan   #Russia  #Corruption #Kazakhstan  #Belarus   #Ukraine

But one must question whether this survey is any longer a true reflection of corruption in each country or should the emphasis be on the “perception” of the country in terms of political stability or news flow? Mongolia may feel particularly aggrieved with its ranking (124th vs 114th in 2024) as the government really stepped up its efforts to weed out state level corruption from early last year, and has charged several former officials over the major coal export scandal. It seems the headlines about corruption (even if about tackling it) are enough to change the “political perception” #Eurasia #Georgia   #Azerbaijan   #Russia   #Corruption #Kazakhstan    #Belarus   #Ukraine

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The war in the Gulf positions Russia in a relatively good position: China will buy all available Russian LNG and at market price and with summer approaching, the Northern Passage will be available to switch LNG from the EU; India is already reported to be buying Russian oil, which was stranded on tankers and, also reportedly, at greatly reduced discounts; Russia’s negotiating position with China regarding Pos2 is improved; The Russian federal budget will have a much better result in March as discounting eases/ends and because there are eager buyers of Russian oil and oil products. #OOTT #LNG #Russia #China #India #PowerofSiberia2

The EU has adopted a plan to completely phase out Russian LNG and piped gas by the end of this year. The plan calls for a ban on any new LNG contracts from April 25th. But, if Gulf LNG production is reduced for even several weeks and exports blocked, there will be calls for Brussels to suspend that action to protect supply. Hungary is already challenging the ban in the courts. #OOTT #LNG #Hungary #Gulf #oilandgas #EUEnergy #Russia

China is expected to become more serious about building the long-talked about, but still delayed, 50 bcm capacity Power of Siberia 2 pipeline from Russia (via Mongolia). The effort to fund and build the equally long-delayed Trans-Caspian pipeline to take Turkmenistan gas to Türkiye and then onto the EU should become more serious. Several U.S. investors have been pushing to acquire ownership of the undamaged Nord Stream pipeline (circa 15 Bcm annual capacity) and to then persuade Germany to buy gas from them as intermediaries. Azerbaijan should be well placed also but has very limited additional export capacity because of slow production growth and limited pipeline capacity via TAP and TANAP. #OOTT #LNG #China #Gulf #Azerbaijan #Turkmenistan #Mongolia #Russia #NordStream2 #PowerofSiberia2

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the targeting of energy facilities in the Gulf have created major problems for China, several other Asian states and the EU. They are all big buyers of oil and LNG from the region. Even when this conflict ends/eases, the legacy of future risk will remain. Countries which are major energy importers will need to consider greater supply diversification and safer infrastructure. #OOTT #LNG #China #StraitHormuz #Gulf #Iran #oilandgas

Happy New Year of the Horse

Mongolia’s mining rebalancing: Rio Tinto’s record output masks deepening tensions eureporter.co/world/mongolia…

Read my comments to Al-Jazeera on the role of the US Dollar in global trade and the prospects for a BRICS bi-lateral settlement system. aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/27…   #BRICS   #BridgeSettlements    #OOTT

China’s annual trade with the five Central Asian states last year passed the $100 billion mark for the first time, a fresh confirmation – according to Beijing - of the scale and depth of economic ties between the two sides. Trade with western nations, excluding hydrocarbons from Kazakhstan to Europe, is a very long way down the table. #China #CentralAsia #Kazakhstan #Europe #hydrocarbons

Both Washington and Brussels stepped up their engagement with the Central Asian states in 2025, and both have plans to increase investment – especially in critical minerals and transport networks – and trade. But, reflecting John Lennon’s quote “Life is What Happens When You are Making Plans”, China is not sitting around making plans but has been very progressively boosting both trade and investment in the region. #China #CentralAsia #Washington #OOTT #minerals

The President is following a tradition embraced by his father, former President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov who is credited with over 50 titles, including at least one novel and non-fiction works concerning topics ranging from horses and dogs to tea, herbal medicine and political philosophy. Turkmenistan’s first post-Soviet leader, Saparmurat Niyazov, of course, established the literary requirement for leadership with the publication of the two-volume Ruhnama, or spiritual guide, which was required reading for years in Turkmen schools. #Turkmenistan #CentralAsia

Turkmenistan’s President Serdar Berdimuhamedov is a prolific author and has just published his fourth book, titled Turkmenistan's Neutrality: A Bright Path to Peace and Trust. The book launch event began with a student choir singing a melody called “Neutrality is Our Eternal Happiness.” The timing of the book’s publication is designed to coincide with celebrations marking the 30th anniversary of Turkmenistan’s permanent neutrality. #Turkmenistan #CentralAsia