Jason - macro & investing

6.5K posts

Jason - macro & investing

@MacroJason

Investor in emerging market real estate, equities & bonds. In Eastern Europe since 2015. I also work with clients to access superior opportunities abroad.

Learn more about my work 👉 Katılım March 2012

150 Takip Edilen11.2K Takipçiler

2026 Yıllık Özeti

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Jason - macro & investing@MacroJason·Apr 5

Thank you for the new (and existing) follows 🫡 Sharing a bit about me. Background - No formal background in finance. Worked in tech startups (2015-2021). Quit during the 2021 crypto bull market to focus more on private investing. - Was in crypto 2019-2025. Did OK and learnt a lot on how finance works in the DeFi world. x.com/MacroJason/sta… - Early 30s. Lived across 3 parts of the world. A multilingual and multi citizenship 'globalist' who ironically distrusts globalism and buys into a good amount of associated conspiracies. What I invest in now: I'm a top down macro investor. I identify themes and countries I believe in, then select the most assymetrical investment instrument to express that view. 1. Romanian and Polish real estate: my primary position. 20%> AAR since 2018. x.com/MacroJason/sta… 2. High yield fixed income: began investing after the Ukraine war started in 2022 and yields spiked especially in Eastern Europe. From Hungarian, Romanian and Kazakh sovereign debt to Uzbekistan corp bonds at 29% YTM flagventures.com/blog/xycf30h0l… 3. Global equities: concentrated portfolio on energy, shipping and Kazakhstan banking. I attribute a good amount of my high returns to date to beginners luck. Will be happy if my returns averages out at ~20% AAR overtime. x.com/MacroJason/sta… 📩 I have a private newsletter which you can subscribe to for free. I do the opposite of spamming. I'm lazy with newsletters and sent out around 4 last year. flagventures.com

Jason - macro & investing@MacroJason

Wrapped up first quarter 2026 with 91.23% YTD returns on my equities portfolio. Current holdings (not much changes since start of year): Oil & Gas: $PBR, $VAR, $ARX.TO x.com/MacroJason/sta… Coal: $TGA.L, $YAL.AX x.com/MacroJason/sta… Kazakhstan banking & fintech: $HSBK and $KSPI x.com/MacroJason/sta… Shipping (RoRo): $HAUTO, $WAWI x.com/MacroJason/sta… Chinese shipping ports: 1199.HK, 144.HK, 6198.HK x.com/MacroJason/sta… Got rid of small positions in $CIG and $NVO.

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Jason - macro & investing@MacroJason·2h

@CodyShirk Would you say that applies to humans in general or men in particular

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Cody Shirk@CodyShirk·2h

Humans crave challenges. Lottery winners, trust fund kids, and anyone who receives something for nothing - are miserable.

Meb Faber@MebFaber

One day, years from now, when the stock market is flat or down, you'll look back on this magical period of market returns and tell your grandkids, "The market returned 15% per year...it just went up year after year after year..." Grandkid: "Wow, the good old days. What did it feel like?" You: "We were all miserable"

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Jason - macro & investing@MacroJason·2h

@mangomanos The red flags are there but if I don’t take the bait then I’m denying myself of the full Romanian experience

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Νικόλαος@mangomanos·7h

@MacroJason Mail sent on a Saturday? Suspicios for romanian gov. 🤣

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Jason - macro & investing@MacroJason·8h

An unexpected invite from the Romanian Ministry of Economy. Nice to see their senior officials engaging with small private investors even on weekends 🇷🇴🫡 Couldn't make it this time as I'm not in town but hopefully next time.

Jason - macro & investing@MacroJason

🇷🇴 I might be the only guy on here bull posting about #Romania consistently. Quite stupid from content engagement POV as barely anyone cares about Romania - but can't help myself as genuinely feel this is a very unique opportunity (and where the majority of my portfolio is deployed). Last 12 months: - Romanian equity index $BET is up 79% - Bucharest real estate is up 24% (with very strong downside protection x.com/MacroJason/sta…) Median salaries went up 3x in Romania in the last 10 years. Thus from that perceptive - local equities and real estate is still undervalued. You're getting frontier Africa type returns with much much less risk. If you would like to remotely access Bucharest real estate or Romanian equities - feel free to reach out: flagventures.com/realestate

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Jason - macro & investing@MacroJason·5h

@CafelutzAI Thanks! Feeling brave and read your untranslated screenshot and (think I) understood the core message

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Cafelutza@CafelutzAI·5h

@MacroJason Should be back soon - google translated link cafelutza-ro.translate.goog/sumar/aplicati…

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Jason - macro & investing@MacroJason·1d

Currently no transactions in the Romanian real estate market can be done as the national land registry has been hacked. Unresolved after two weeks. It reflects the huge divergence between public and private sector talent in Romania. A country that produces more software engineer on a per capita basis than 99% of the world. But public sector couldn't guard it's basic digital infrastructure (apparently the exploit was easy to prevent). My guess is that it will be resolved in the coming weeks and no one will actually lose their property title. It just lead to a huge productivity and time loss on something that can be easily prevented. I spoke with someone who works for the Polish ruling party (PO) and he made an interesting point. Poland has already gotten all of these basic things right. To reach the next stage of growth requires doing much more complex things. Romania isn't far behind Poland on GDP per capita PPP (on PPS Romania exceed Poland in 2025). Somehow it achieved this with infrastructure that's 15 years behind Poland and not getting basic stuff right. In that regards, there's much more low hanging fruits and easy optimizations for Romania than Poland.

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Jason - macro & investing@MacroJason·5h

@DreadsongSOL Might be a honeypot or ANCPI hacker running a social engineering attack on me. You never know.

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Dreadsong@DreadsongSOL·5h

@MacroJason Wait, what, I didn't even know our ministry does stuff like this The fact that I'm learning these things as a native feels pretty weird LOL

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Jason - macro & investing@MacroJason·5h

@Addina2u @Liga7N Ha don't take it too seriously, its mainly an inside joke with Nichita. But I do believe the average Central European person (of which Romanians at least in part qualify) is able to see the world in more diverse ways than most - with an understanding of both East and West.

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Adina Dediu@Addina2u·6h

@MacroJason @Liga7N you bring up the real Confucious (???) principle... with the many ways towards the one goal... ... for us, we come from Christian background, with "Jesus is the way, the truth and the life... maybe that is why we do not see life in so many diverse ways... just saying...🤓😎

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Jason - macro & investing@MacroJason·5h

@vol_is_our_edge All good, I pay everything and if anything overpaid. Tax rates in Romania are reasonable with many legal ways to optimize hence its silly to evade.

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Theta Capital Trading@vol_is_our_edge·6h

@MacroJason Beware..ANAF might also be in the room

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Jason - macro & investing@MacroJason·5h

@TheDealMakerGuy True. The only time I receive emails from the Polish state is when they ask me for money. Getting a call, email and physical letter for a 20 zl fine was memorable.

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InvestorFromEurope@TheDealMakerGuy·6h

@MacroJason Emails from public institutions in Poland usually mean you’re in trouble so I hope I’m not getting a similar email from the Polish Ministry of Economy 😂

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Jason - macro & investing@MacroJason·6h

@Liga7N Yes sir

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Nichita@Liga7N·6h

@MacroJason True pragmatism

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Jason - macro & investing@MacroJason·7h

@Liga7N I'm a flexible guy - can discuss green bonds with Bolojan's guys, €35K houses with Simion or collectivist farming with CG.

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Nichita@Liga7N·7h

@MacroJason Doubt there'll be a "next time" for the people in government now

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Jason - macro & investing@MacroJason·7h

@hoeflator 100%! x.com/i/grok/share/f…

Hoeflator/LJB | Yishun's Greatest Poet | COE/GCB@hoeflator·8h

@MacroJason Could be why they have resisted wokeness and maintain societal stability for so long. Polluted waterways lead to societal decay over time.

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Jason - macro & investing@MacroJason·12h

'In every Romanian lives a thirst for freedom and a longing for (natural spring water) that cannot be easily stilled' - Mircea Vulcanescu

Jason - macro & investing@MacroJason

On one of my flights from Bucharest to London - my luggage was searched at Stansted Airport. I was asked why I have 2 liters of Romanian sparkling water in my suitcase. I explained Borsec water is top tier and does not have artificially added fluoride like water in the UK. They were reasonable and agreed only to open my smaller bottle of Dorna water to test the content and let me go. They also left my Polish Wawel krowka stash alone.

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Jason - macro & investing@MacroJason·9h

Sold all my $KSPI! Remaining 2/3 was sold at $93.47. Happy with this trade. Not just the profits but learnt a lot about Kazakh macro thanks to it. Was not an easy decision - consulted knowledgable Kazakh and CIS colleagues in detail before pulling the trigger. As an active private investor I can afford to run a very concentrated portfolio of super high conviction bets only. If I were managing a larger and more passive portfolio - names like $KSPI would definetly still be in it. And I still consider Kaspi fundamentals far superior to $MELI, $NU, $CPNG: x.com/MacroJason/sta…

Jason - macro & investing@MacroJason

Planning to sell all my $KSPI in coming days / weeks. First limit order tranche filled today at most Chinese price possible. My average cost basis is around $78.61. Selling not because $KSPI is a bad company - but because I bought it to get exposure to Kazakh macro and increasingly the company is giving me exposure to Turkish macro which I do not want. Concerned the company will in best case lose focus from core market and at worse throw good money after bad. Would have love to own a maturing but highly profitable Kazakh payment processor (which is what KSPI is without Turkey). Still bullish $HSBK and still keeping an eye on Uzum IPO (the Uzbek KSPI).

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Jason - macro & investing retweetledi

Jason - macro & investing@MacroJason·2d

Fast forward 20 months - the flat is almost ready. Glad to see it looks similar to the showroom unit. Reserved at €80K in Dec 2024 with a €20K downpayment (25%). Lowest asking price for studio flats in this building today start at €120K. Assuming re-sale price of €110K: €30K profit, +150% return on downpayment and IRR of 73%. 3% transfer tax if I flip it today, lowered to 1% if I wait 3 years. No capital gains tax or any other taxes levied on the seller or buyer. This is an established 'A' neighborhood in Bucharest. I usually go with more middle class and 'emerging' neighborhoods. I went with this project as it was undervalued back in 2024 due to some unfounded rumors about this developer. The market has now moved on from the rumors which is reflected in asking prices. This is why this housing complex appreciated so much more than market average. And yes - my original tweet from below got a grand total of 2 likes :D Congrats to the very few of you who found my account early and worked with me to buy in Warsaw & Bucharest back then.

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Jason - macro & investing@MacroJason·15h

@dominikc1981 Yep am aware but can compare 8/1 and 11/11 in Poland to 12/1 in Romania (their version of such kind of event) and still a huge difference

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Dominik Chmielewski@dominikc1981·19h

@MacroJason this is not a normal day in Poland its an anniversary of the Warsaw Uprising

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Jason - macro & investing@MacroJason·1d

One week in Poland and you see more national flags and patriotic sentiment than one year in Romania. Simultaneously - you see more black guys with local girls than you do a few years in Romania. Increasingly noticing how the Balkans is ‘less extreme’ than Mitteleuropa in that regard.

Kevin Jon@thekevinjon

This is a normal day in Warsaw by the way

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Jason - macro & investing@MacroJason·1d

You're suppose to have sold BTC near the top and rotated it to Bucharest real estate and Uzbek bonds

wale.moca 🐳@waleswoosh

I can't keep my BTC on centralized exchanges because they might go bankrupt or freeze withdrawals. I can't keep my BTC in hot software wallets because my laptop might get hacked. I can't keep my BTC in cold hardware wallets because there could be a bug on the manufacturer's side that exposes my seed phrase. I can't deploy my BTC in DeFi because there's like a new eight-figure hack every month. So where am I supposed to keep my BTC?

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Jason - macro & investing@MacroJason·1d

This post gave me a flashback to 2020-21 DeFi days. A protocol got exploited every week. Protocols would put out similar statements - half pleading to the hacker and half threatening that they will eventually get caught. Fast forward 5 years and nearly none of them got caught. But back then our ETH, LINK, AAVE was all doubling every few months and on top of that yield farms were paying out few hundred % APY and then you would get some random 4-5 figure airdrop every month or so. The risk reward was very positive. Nowadays it's the opposite - your magic internet money is going down YoY. On top of that, you can suffer permanent loss on exploits. Got to be open minded, flexible and willing to move on to other asset class and opportunities.

Sky@skysupersonic

Dear COLDCARD attackers, Congratulations. You successfully found a bug, exploited, and have collectively gathered around 1,500 bitcoin. Now you are sitting on one of the most blacklisted coin stacks in history. It will be nearly impossible for you to exchange for currency or deal with any institution. Every move you make will be highly scrutinized and tracked. Presumably for the rest of your lives, you will be looking over your shoulder. I suggest you plea with CoinKite to return all stolen funds in return for an audit fee of 5% of the loot. This way your work is rewarded and you are able to enjoy the fruits of your labor. Respectfully, hodlers worldwide

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Jason - macro & investing@MacroJason·1d

@realtek12345 I'm not sure how long they can sustain it but for now it looks that way and good for them. Can't help but think there's some Orthodox vs Catholic elements there too. In particular with the 'universalist' element of Catholic church.

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Realtek@realtek12345·1d

@MacroJason The Balkans will remain normal for much longer than Poland. It pains me to admit it.

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Jason - macro & investing@MacroJason·1d

@Peter_Lukacs_R Fair. The other perspective is 'sovereign individual' thesis and the fact that it's never been easier for the non top 0.1% to be mobile.

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