Jason - macro / offshore / investing

China is the only major economy where 10 year bond yields are down on the daily, weekly or YTD. If this trend sustains then RMB bond issuance by foreign companies and perhaps even countries will increase (in search of lower financing costs).

Can someone tell me why government bonds are suddenly breaking everywhere, all at once?

🚩CITI SAYS OIL UNDERPRICED ON TAIL RISKS 🚩CITI EXPECTS BRENT TO HIT $120 NEAR TERM 🚩CITI SEES BRENT BULL CASE AT $150

True. Many get the thesis right but express it incorrectly. One variation I recently saw is an investor who share my bullish view on Chinese EV exports but went for $COSCO (a container shipping company that barely handles any cars) over $WAWI and $HAUTO (all they do is cars shipments). I asked why and they said 'why would I go for a Norwegian company over a Chinese company for Chinese EV exports trade'? I gave up.

The ruble in April outperformed all major currencies vs the dollar. Couldn’t possibly have anything to do with increased oil prices and repeated sanctions relief from the Trump administration. Putin doesn’t hold all the cards — just the ones Trump keeps dealing him.

Invest in the things you have the most exposure to. Focus on quality over quantity. What you don’t consume is more important than what you do. Exhibit A: drinking water

🇷🇺 Je redécouvre les banques… en Russie ! En France, contacter sa banque relève souvent d’un véritable parcours : téléphone, application, codes de validation, musique d’attente… le tout uniquement aux heures d’ouverture des bureaux. En Russie, l’expérience est radicalement différente. Un simple message dans le chat, une réponse humaine, pas un bot, précise et immédiate, 24 h/24 et 7 j/7. Que ce soit une question sur une carte, un plafond, du cashback ou une opération, tout se règle en quelques minutes avec une clarté remarquable. Preuve en images ci-dessus (Gazprombank) Cela remet sérieusement en question bien des idées reçues sur la Russie… et sur la qualité du service client au quotidien. Vraiment impressionnant.

🚨 LEOPOLD ASCHENBRENNER IS OFFICIALLY BETTING BILLIONS THAT THE AI HARDWARE BOOM HAS PEAKED. The exOpenAI researcher who was fired for warning that China could steal their AI models then turned $225 million into $5.5 billion in 12 months just filed his Q1 2026 13F with the SEC. One quarter ago he had $5.5 billion in disclosed equity exposure. As of March 31, 2026 that number is $13.67 billion. The portfolio nearly tripled in a single quarter across 42 positions. He initiated $7.46 billion in put options against every major semiconductor company between January 1 and March 31, 2026. None of these positions existed in his Q4 2025 filing. - SMH VanEck Semiconductor ETF PUT: $2.04 billion - Nvidia PUT: $1.57 billion - Oracle PUT: $1.07 billion - Broadcom PUT: $1.01 billion - AMD PUT: $969 million - Micron PUT: $583 million - Taiwan Semiconductor PUT: $535 million - ASML PUT: $494 million - Intel PUT: $159 million For the past 18 months Aschenbrenner was betting only on electricity, memory, compute, and physical data center infrastructure. That made him one of the best performing fund managers in the world. And his long stock book still reflects that exact same thesis. - Bloom Energy: $878 million - SanDisk: $724 million - CoreWeave: $556 million - IREN: $401 million - Core Scientific: $389 million - Applied Digital: $320 million - Riot Platforms: $142 million - CleanSpark: $104 million - Solaris Energy: $62 million - T1 Energy: $43 million - Bitfarms: $38 million - Bitdeer: $29 million - Power Solutions: $26 million - WhiteFiber: $20 million - Babcock and Wilcox: $19 million - SharonAI: $18 million - ProPetro: $13 million - Hive Digital: $6 million He is also running call options on specific names at the same time as his puts, which means he is not simply betting against semiconductors everywhere. - Micron CALL: $422 million - SanDisk CALL: $388 million - Taiwan Semiconductor CALL: $354 million - CoreWeave CALL: $140 million - Bloom Energy CALL: $55 million This means he believes the companies supplying power, storage, and compute to the AI industry still have years of growth ahead of them. But the chip companies that Wall Street has been buying for the past two years at record valuations have already priced in everything good that is going to happen to them. The man who has been right about every major AI trade for the past 18 months is now betting that the biggest names in semiconductors are about to fall. If his track record means anything, the chip stocks Wall Street has been buying for the past two years may be in serious trouble.

🇧🇷 Bought $CIG today at $2.19. Brazil utilities - value and dividend play (P/E 6, Forward div 7%). Low debt. Upside from Brazil macro, $EWZ passive flows, data centers and rate cuts (utilities tend to act as quasi bond instrument). Main risks: seasonal droughts impacting their hydro and politically motivated regulated utility price caps in election year.

Turkey dumped its gold holdings by the largest amount in history during March 📉🇹🇷

Rząd przyjął do swojego wykazu prac (pod numerem UD408) projekt wprowadzający instytucję "milczącej zgody" na przyznawanie imigrantom z wybranych krajów prawa pobytu. Nierozpatrzenie przez urząd wojewódzki wniosku o zezwolenie na pobyt w ciągu 60 dni miałoby teraz skutkować uzyskaniem przez imigranta zezwolenia "z automatu". Jest to absurdalny i śmiertelnie niebezpieczny pomysł. Fakt, problem długich kolejek imigrantów w urzędach wojewódzkich istnieje. Można go rozwiązać np. poprzez wprowadzenie limitów imigracyjnych - wtedy wszystkie wnioski "ponad limit" będą z automatu odrzucane i obłożenie urzędu się w naturalny sposób zmniejszy. Można też doinwestować ten sektor administracji, poprawić sprawność i profesjonalizm urzędów zajmujących się kluczowymi dla bezpieczeństwa Polski sprawami. Optymalnie byłoby zrobić obie te rzeczy. Niestety Donald Tusk wybiera trzecią drogę: kapitulację państwa. Uznanie, że skoro urzędy nie dają rady sprawdzić wszystkich chętnych do Polski imigrantów, to... trzeba zacząć ich wpuszczać bez sprawdzenia. Lekarstwo o wiele gorsze niż choroba. Trudno o bardziej dobitny przykład logiki "otwartych granic" i "im więcej tym lepiej", która najwyraźniej w administracji Donalda Tuska ma się równie dobrze jak miała się w administracji Mateusza Morawieckiego.