Massimiliano Petrucci

210 posts

Massimiliano Petrucci

Massimiliano Petrucci

@makxs

Don't do much talking here, but plenty of listening.

Manhattan, NY Katılım Ağustos 2008
857 Takip Edilen121 Takipçiler
Robinhood
Robinhood@RobinhoodApp·
We’ve got crypto too.
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Robinhood
Robinhood@RobinhoodApp·
Don’t be late. Update your app now, and tune into the Robinhood app today at 4:45 PM ET for your chance to win a piece of $1M BTC. rbnhd.co/trivia-live
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Pedro Domingos
Pedro Domingos@pmddomingos·
Imagine if you talked by picking the next word to be the one people most often say after your previous words.
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Yann LeCun
Yann LeCun@ylecun·
Yes, I've made this point many times. The beginning of a sigmoid looks like an exponential. Not only can we "never be fully certain that what we are observing isn't in fact following a logistic trend before the inflection point", we can always be fully certain that *every* *single* *exponential* *trend* eventually passes an inflection point and saturates into a sigmoid. Continuing an exponential trend beyond that inflection point requires a paradigm shift. No physical process can grow indefinitely. There are always friction terms in the dynamics equation that eventually become dominant (energy consumption, heat dissipation, quantum effects, thermal fluctuations, communication bandwidth, mass/energy density....). Even processes that *appear* exponential on a long time scale are actually a succession of sigmoids, in which each new sigmoid is caused by a paradigm shift. A good example is Moore's Law. It is saturating right now. But the exponential progress of the last 7 decades is due to a succession of technological paradigm shifts that weren't pre-ordained. Each paradigm behaved like a sigmoid. Each new sigmoid overtook the previous one. The envelope turned out to be exponential. We haven't seen similar paradigm shifts in, say, airplane speed or space travel. Technological paradigm shifts require scientific breakthroughs.
Tim Rocktäschel@_rockt

Like everyone else I am extremely excited and optimistic about AI progress. But since there seems to be the misconception that it is really easy to make predictions about the future for exponential trends (let's just draw lines on a log scale), this is a reminder that while observing an exponential trend (e.g. compute or neural network parameter increases), we can never be fully certain that what we are observing isn't in fact following a logistic trend before the inflection point. Before the inflection point, both trends look the same.

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annie🦄⚡ | on break
annie🦄⚡ | on break@anniebombanie_·
JavaScript paid for my birthday trip under the winter stars 🥰✨
annie🦄⚡ | on break tweet mediaannie🦄⚡ | on break tweet mediaannie🦄⚡ | on break tweet media
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Prof. Feynman
Prof. Feynman@ProfFeynman·
Did you know that it’s actually possible for you to say, “I don’t know enough about this to have an opinion”
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mikeash
mikeash@mikeash·
For those few of you still using Sun equipment, remember not to look directly at it during today's eclipse.
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