Manix

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Manix

Manix

@manix_2018

Biotech Investor Tweets are opinions only, always do your own due diligence when buying and selling stocks

Nederland Katılım Ocak 2018
203 Takip Edilen68 Takipçiler
Manix
Manix@manix_2018·
@ej23ny Think the company maybe split in two (Setrusumab to Ultragenyx, remaining rights), then Alvelestat sold to GSK. I could not understand Rubric being silent if there wasn't anything material going on. Still no insider transactions aswell, positive for deal (e.g. MNPI)
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Manix
Manix@manix_2018·
@ej23ny Agree positive no R/S vote on the agenda. Pretty sure Ultragenyx will have scheduled the FDA conversations already, outcome could send this back over 1 USD itself, without even a partnership factored in for Alvelestat (MPH966).
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Manix
Manix@manix_2018·
@1nvestorGadget Referencing ER (Earnings), they released last week.
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Manix
Manix@manix_2018·
@TedKaridis My issue is over what alvelestat (MPH966) is worth, with the relaxed endpoint for phase 3. Other companies will be interested. New CEO at GSK has experience, or at least knowledge of the product from his time at AZN. It's oral, which makes it an attractive option for a Pharma
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Manix
Manix@manix_2018·
@TedKaridis If there is a company that can bring Setrusumab to market it would be Ultragenyx, they have direct experience of working with the FDA via surrogate biomarkers (relating to the Dimension Therapeutics candidates). Ultragenyx knows this and MREO is now within their price range.
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Ted Karidis
Ted Karidis@TedKaridis·
$MREO needs to be monetized once and for all. DSK is a complete shit show of a CEO. There i said it. Engage Centerview and let's be done. There's no reason to retain rights or anything else. These assets should be part of a bigger company.
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Manix
Manix@manix_2018·
$MREO Timing of non-executive options interesting, B/O this coming week? 2026 standing out as anomaly regarding structure and timing of these awards. Maybe not the 10+ deal we dreamt about before December last year, but 2.50 Cash with a CVR not out of the question.
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Manix
Manix@manix_2018·
@semodough I think they are closing out a deal to sell. The executive options partially vesting over 12 months had to be approved by Rubrics, and provides the executives a windfall in a strategic exit. Can't see Rubrics approving or staying quiet if they don't have some meat on the bone.
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Manix@manix_2018·
@FeldtInvesting Agree, definitely not a good stock for the mental health side of things (due to the opportunity costs of holding). Just hold onto the tiny stack, i think we have a conclusion soon to this chapter. Management has lost credibility, only path forward is a sale (INZY style)
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Secular Investor
Secular Investor@FeldtInvesting·
I lost about $30k and was a bagholder for three years. The very little intrinsic value this company has is hidden in Alvelestat. Unfortunately, there has been no interest in partnership front during these past three years. Not expecting a great deal here, but any deal would be fine. I’m sick of waiting, this is why a minority share and focus elsewhere is better for mental health.
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Secular Investor
Secular Investor@FeldtInvesting·
$MREO A huge dip in institional ownership. Frazier, Northpond, Mangrove, Rock Springs and Janus all reported having sold 100% of their massive positions, which together were 1/4 of the company. If also Adage sold, only Rubric remains from the past giants. Everyone was in only due to Setrusumab. Zero faith in Alavelestat, or in management to recover.
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Manix
Manix@manix_2018·
@FeldtInvesting I'd add to the tiny stack. 683 Capital are not biotech royalty, but they are event driven. Management has lost credibility, clear. But intrinsic value remains, and in the correct hands could realize it's potential. Pre April interesting window (i see the glass half full)
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Manix
Manix@manix_2018·
@FeldtInvesting Do you still own any MREO shares? if so why?
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Secular Investor
Secular Investor@FeldtInvesting·
@manix_2018 Rubric stayed cause they have seats. The two tutes you mentioned are marginal in biotech. No known entity is left.
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Manix
Manix@manix_2018·
@FeldtInvesting Whoever runs the Ph3 for Alvestaat will be the new owners. Rubrics have the votes for a Merger with 683 and ECOR1 now controlling 31%. Prediction is GSK.
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Secular Investor
Secular Investor@FeldtInvesting·
$MREO As of February, the Director of Clinical Operations doesn’t seem to work for Mereo anymore. Downsizing and outsourcing clinical execution has begun. It prob also suggests Alve partner will take full control of Ph3. This is now a single-asset company.
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Manix
Manix@manix_2018·
$MREO - Interesting... grants issued Feb 2026 for MREO employees are vesting over 12 months. Conclusion (AI): The move from a 4-year to a 1-year monthly vesting schedule for a portion of the equity is a tactical "acceleration." (Sale or partnership rather than LT recovery).
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Manix
Manix@manix_2018·
@ej23ny Could be GSK aquiring $MREO, pick them up for Alveslestat (AATD-LD & Bronchiectasis TAM's), and CVR relating to Setrusumab. Still feel Setrusumab is not a lost cause in any shape or form. Safety profile and BMD gains superior to bisphosphonates (current SOC in OI). 💪
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Manix
Manix@manix_2018·
@FeldtInvesting You didn't read the full message. They thank her for 'strategic' support as well. Structurally they will have done a lot, preparing the company for a transaction. Let's see, my bet is on Rosen, pretty sure he'd be loosing his feathers publicly if this was going Pete Tong.
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Secular Investor
Secular Investor@FeldtInvesting·
@manix_2018 Thr rrason for the post was that Annalisa got an honorary badge from British Empire. Nothing to do with her role in the board. What has the board done thus far?
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Secular Investor
Secular Investor@FeldtInvesting·
$MREO Massive sells. Not that surprising, previous pump was not really based on anything. Four years of not finding a partner and no realistic path to approval for Setru.
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Manix
Manix@manix_2018·
@FeldtInvesting Are you on the board? You know the company inside and out apparently. Apparently Rubrics have done nothing. Interesting.. Mereo publicly thanked Annalisa Jenkins last week for her 'strategic' support. I guess she's done nothing there and just there for the ride.
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Secular Investor
Secular Investor@FeldtInvesting·
New at $MREO? I’ve intensively followed them for several years and know this company inside out. Those two tutes you mentioned indeed are the new ones, we’ll soon see who were the tutes that sold. Rubrics have been ”at the wheel” for ages now and the only thing they have concretely done is to put in place cost reductions years ago. Board is responsible for partnerships. Rubric has major representation there and there has been zero progress. There won’t be M&A, no-one wants this mess. Their only card up the sleeve is Alvelestat, and no one knows how many years that will still take. I bet the current candidates will be extremely cautions given the fact that no-one has really wanted the drug thus far. Not to say $1 is acheivable, but with current status, we are far far away from there.
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Manix
Manix@manix_2018·
@TedKaridis In addition to the Rubrics appointed directors with M&A experience. Annalisa Jenkins has sold a company to Ultragenx previously. I lean to M&A than a partnership (if Rubrics want to maximize shareholder value), a key element of the initial proxy fight
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Manix
Manix@manix_2018·
@TedKaridis $MREO Agree, I think the 'ongoing' partnership discussion is a full M&A process. Rubrics are maintaining silence and no insider activity even at this depressed valuation. The setup in the background also feels supportive, Head of legal joining over a year ago, fresh from M&A.
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Ted Karidis
Ted Karidis@TedKaridis·
$MREO: The FDA's BMD path for approval change was in discussion for months. $RARE knew it was coming Regardless, Setru blows away biphos. & with no SOC. This will be over $2.00 by BLA submission. Everyone knows this including the tutes. My guess, Rubric will push 4 a sale B4.
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