Seranity/Trading Advisor

285 posts

Seranity/Trading Advisor

Seranity/Trading Advisor

@marcx90

Katılım Aralık 2011
44 Takip Edilen34 Takipçiler
Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
$IREN +19.69% after revising ARR target to $4B+ from new AI cloud contracts. Its customer base now includes Microsoft, Nvidia, Perplexity, and Figure. $HUT +10.45% off a 15Y $9.8B AI DC lease $CIFR +16.76% $CLSK +13.7% $WYFI +9.18% $NBIS and $CRWV are taking their time in the shower. But does look like Neoclouds/Colo players are sharply recovering following new catalysts, such as Kimi compute shortage news and new contracts.
Serenity tweet mediaSerenity tweet media
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
There’s nothing quite like the scent of more AI capex on a Sunday. Probably some ways to go if leading frontier models are out of capacity from too much demand.
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
Thanks! I’ve always shared personal research and core thoughts for free. Not trying to sell anything or tell others what to do. And above all, just being transparent about my own returns (win or loss) Maybe this information democratization upsets some business models… When others try and pitch their $40 TA subscriptions that are always right and predicted the semis crash. But if they really believed it, they would have made 5000%+ buying puts and wouldn’t need to market a paywall. Yes, if I’m on 1.4x leverage, and if a portfolio concentrated in memory/photonics underlying crashes -35% on avg… you get a 49% drawdown. I’m just sharing what happens. But I expect AI names to recover since I see demand from compute to energy to memory to networking to be structural.
Francis@FrancisCashFlow

everybody hating on serenity posting his -49% pnl is so lame to me its normal to have pullbacks as a trader and he still has a better ytd than all of you its all jealousy that he's grown to 1m followers and they wish they had the same numbers to sell their shitty substack

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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
Feels bad, -49.4% drawdown this month after the recent crash. My portfolio is mainly AI chokepoints and bottlenecks. In the memory, photonics, robotics, and upstream semis, (on margin) which all tend to be higher beta than others. But reduced leverage recently from the crash. I see a lot of people making fun of the drop or AI names, saying it’s obvious that: - “AI is a bubble” - “memory/kospi is a bubble” - “photonics is a bubble” - “humanoids won’t get anywhere” - “neoclouds will get replaced by hyperscalers like Meta” And a bunch of retail + bots saying “sell everything, it’s never going to recover”. But I have conviction that all these themes are backed by structural revenue growth or technological shifts. And I’ve had similar drawdowns back when there admin threatened global tariffs, before markets pulled off a recovery. I personally have a longer horizon + higher tolerance for volatility than others, to see how this plays out. Especially considering a lot of retail view things on a week to week basis: no, my thesis isn’t wrong yet if I project revenue inflection in H2 2027 and it’s 2026 now. Anyway, feels bad short term just wanted to share anyway for transparency.
Serenity tweet media
Serenity@aleabitoreddit

Agreed! It’s nice to remember your thesis during a market crash. From my own personal thesis, if $AAOI hits $1.4B quarterly revenue start of Q3 2027. Which is annualized $5.6B off a $8B MC. Is it “over” for the company if that revenue ramp hasn’t even shown up in the quarterly earnings… when it’s 2026? Same applies to my CPO sector exposure like $SIVE, an architecture shift led by $NVDA. If scale out volume ramps from H2 2026 into 2027, and scale up heavily volume ramps into 2028. Is it “over” that $0 -> $91B TAM expansion (per GS) hasn’t even hit yet? With robotics like Agility, is it over in 2026 if the listing hasn’t even happened yet and humanoids haven’t ramped? I personally think current market conditions are a reflection of liquidity and leverage, not individual fundamentals. It’s brutal for everyone to see KOSPI, TW, Nikkei, and AI, space, robotics sector stocks crash recently. Especially when there’s a lot of irrational behavior stemming from those leverage. In the end, we can’t tell you what stocks to buy, what timeframe you should sell, how to size your positions, or what you should do. Only share personal thoughts or research and track if they get validated over time. So it’s extremely important to build your own thesis, since everyone has unique risk tolerance or investing timeframes. And that usually leads to having higher conviction during crashes.

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