Mark Uretsky

Y R U G A Y?

Nobody got paid today for predicting the CPI number. The print surprised cooler. One megacap broke on its own news. Chips ran. The edge was never the forecast. It was having a rule for every outcome before the number landed. The market pays for process, not opinions.

$MU closed near 979, up about 5 percent. The dots: IBM said clients pulled June budget into memory to lock supply before hikes. $ASML reports tomorrow into that same cycle. My read: MU holds 960 into the print, 1,020 by Friday. Wrong below a 940 close. A thesis, not advice.

Tuesday's close. $SPX higher. $NDX led by chips, up close to 1 percent. The Dow flat, dragged by one name down 25 percent. June CPI cooled to 3.5 percent, biggest monthly drop in over six years. Tomorrow: producer prices, plus $MS, $BLK, $ASML. Rules react. They do not guess.

One stock fell 24 percent today. Its worst day since 1987. If that name is 5 percent of your book, you just gave back a year. This is why the core carries zero single-stock risk by design. No single name can end your month. Risk first. Everything else second.

Inflation cooled to 3.5 percent in June. Biggest monthly drop in over six years. Growth names ran. $GS closed sharply higher on earnings. One megacap broke on its own story. Disinflation is steering this tape, not any single stock. Regimes are what systems are built to trade.

Tomorrow brings the next read on prices at the producer level, plus $MS and $BLK earnings and $ASML. I never trade the print before it exists. I set the process before the number lands, then let the rules react. What are you watching into it?

One scarce input just moved three earnings stories in a day. $IBM down on it. Memory names up on it. Software caught in the middle. You cannot forecast which headline hits next. You can build a book that does not depend on guessing. Process over prediction. Every time.

$MU traded near 980 today, up about 5 percent. The dots: $IBM just told us clients are yanking budget to buy memory before prices rise. That demand lands on $MU. My read: $MU grinds to 1,020 by Friday. Wrong if it closes below 940. A thesis, not a recommendation.

With regard to "Judeo Christian": The 10 Commandments are Jewish. The great stories of the Old Testament are Jewish. The Jews developed the idea of subsidiarity as the alternative to tyranny and slavery. The Jews established the cultural preconditions for the rise of universal literacy. The fate of Israel at the hands of the Islamists is the fate of the West. This rising tide of anti-semitism sickens me. Those of you engaging in it for your oh-so-moral reasons—you're despicable. And remember, you proud "Christians" objecting in all your purity to the term: Christ Himself was a Jew.

$IBM fell 24 percent today. Worst day since 1987. Not a software company falling apart. Clients pulled June budget out of software and threw it at servers, storage and memory to lock in supply before prices climb. The shortage is now writing other companies' earnings.

Two forces, one session. Cooling inflation this morning. A memory shortage rewriting earnings by the afternoon, $IBM down hard. The overlay harvests the volatility risk premium with same day $SPX options. I wrote the method. amazon.com/dp/B0GKQGY8Z8 Educational, not advice.

@StephenOptions @grok how close to a blow up was it?

My backtest said the strategy never had a losing month. Live trading found one in the first quarter. Nothing was broken. The backtest never had to sit through a drawdown in real time. The number that matters is the one you can actually hold.

Position sizing beats prediction. I have watched a sharp call lose money because it was sized like a hobby, and a mediocre one compound because it was sized like a job. The edge is not being right. It is surviving being wrong. Follow if you want the systematic version.

Tomorrow morning: producer prices. Today's consumer print cooled on energy that has already reversed. PPI sits closer to the pipeline. If the oil move is leaking into costs, this is where it shows first. Watching the setup, not guessing the number.

$WTI 79.56. The Hormuz toll got pulled and Iran holds toll-free for 60 days. My read, not advice: crude fails to hold 80 and drifts to 76 by Friday. Invalidation is a settle back above 82. No deadline, no structural bid. A war premium with no supply hit bleeds out.

One variable, three moods in a day. Energy fell, so June inflation cooled. A Hormuz shock made energy the tail risk. Then the toll got pulled and it deflated. I do not forecast which way the whipsaw breaks. I size so either tail is survivable. That is convexity, not prediction.

Yesterday the trade was a Hormuz blockade with a 4pm deadline and a 20 percent toll. Today the toll is scrapped and $WTI is back under 80. The deadline you cannot fade is the one that never arrives. Headlines round-trip. Process does not.

Three verified facts today. June CPI cooled to 3.5 percent, all energy. $WTI topped 80 on the Hormuz shock. $JPM beat and still sold off. Three signals, three directions. Why I run uncorrelated engines, not a headline bet. 11 year backtest, now live: pnlportfolio.com/live.html

The Hormuz toll is gone. Trump dropped the 20 percent transit fee and swapped it for Gulf trade deals. Iran holds the strait toll-free for 60 days. $WTI faded to 79.56 after topping 80 this morning. Brent 84.95. A scheduled shock that evaporates is why I fade headlines.