Masa’s Son

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Masa’s Son

Masa’s Son

@masayoshisson

non consensus tech investor. variant views only. unbridled optimist. truth seeker. xbuyside. xmckinsey. +248% since pf inception (jan ‘25)

New York, NY Katılım Ocak 2015
441 Takip Edilen554 Takipçiler
Masa’s Son
Masa’s Son@masayoshisson·
odds to call for reverse regime change?
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Masa’s Son
Masa’s Son@masayoshisson·
trump has zero idea how to get out (and Iran won't let him) maybe we'll invade, maybe we won't maybe we'll need to control the strait, maybe we won't maybe we'll need NATO to step in, maybe we won't maybe we'll need to make a deal, maybe we won't deception has its limits
Al Jazeera Breaking News@AJENews

BREAKING: US President Donald Trump threatens to halt weapons supplies to Ukraine unless European countries agreed to join a coalition to secure the Strait of Hormuz, the Financial Times reported.

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Sammy 'Ace' Rothstein
Sammy 'Ace' Rothstein@shortbus_ace·
pulling out of the war now is about as dumb as a move as we could make for the future of peace and stability of the region and the world. yes, I know that probably means many more Americans would die as a result, but that is the price required at this point for the goals of our values. withdrawing and leaving the ROW to figure it out and probably giving Iran some control of the SoH longer-term is economically, and in terms of stability, worse than really anything possible. even maybe having nuclear capabilities (maybe!) know this will piss people off, don't care. never supported this to start, but now we must finish it or there will be far worse consequences. leaving now is because Trump can't stomach a recession instead of actually being America First, which right now is all I am thinking about. I love this country, I love our troops and I love you all
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Matheus Lonning
Matheus Lonning@mathlonning·
Imagine Trump’s announcement tomorrow night is just him saying he’s sending troops to occupy Iran lmfao that’d be unfortunate.
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Masa’s Son
Masa’s Son@masayoshisson·
the winning formula is economic pain since Iran will control the strait post war, it'll get what it wants (and is likely to make a lot of money from it) it knows that is has leverage over the western AI supply chain through Taiwan and South Korea erosion of the petrodollar means structurally higher borrowing costs for the US and inflation in the US whether trump likes it or not will be interesting to see if we see more escalation on the back of that (potentially instigated by Israel) clear win for Iran, China and Russia clear loss for US and Israel unimaginable loss for GCC and Europe
COMBATE |🇵🇷@upholdreality

Iran FM Araghchi: "No negotiation has taken place. We have not responded to the US proposal and we have not given a counter-proposal. Trust with the US is at zero. We are waiting for their ground troops."

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Masa’s Son
Masa’s Son@masayoshisson·
@ContrarianCurse you’re fully missing the social implications quite literally the bear case given trump handed the dems the landslide
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SuspendedCap
SuspendedCap@ContrarianCurse·
Thinking through AI backdrop. Sorry if I ramble along here. Few things I think are absolutely true: 1) prob will never be enough tokens again 2) we are selling compute for way below cost 3) economics for the labs vs the semis that enable it, even though they are codependent are totally out of whack Three things that are extremely important to the LT health of this trade: 1) there is capital willing to be burned 2) we keep developing harnesses/organization of agents in novel way to extract productivity and output 3) we need to absolutely continue to see leaps in performance per rack/w/etc Its then a race against time, what comes first? Do we run out of capital to burn? Most likely to would lose the highest cost token producers, and compute would get even more expensive (due to demand) - resulting in a windfall for those that have better cost curves. This would give headroom for the labs to raise prices Does one of the labs gain enough confidence that they can raise prices? I would argue Anthropic could do it today, but will probably choose to burn another 50b+ to keep the momentum. I'm not sure they are wrong, but IPO window needs to stay healthy (and is somewhat tied to what SpaceX can get done) Or can NVDA achieve cost does fast enough + price increases that you get a narrowing in the growth in demand and the growth in compute supply to a better ecosystem level. We will see. But the market currently is not optimistic that we are on the right path.. depends on the month though I am long infra/equipment/and supply chain that I think have already won, and the advancements needed to enable the compute scaling which is essential to keeping this whole thing going
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Masa’s Son
Masa’s Son@masayoshisson·
$vcx that's pretty much how I think the oai ipo will go
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Gavin Baker
Gavin Baker@GavinSBaker·
Risk/reward seems attractive: Token consumption accelerating, GPU per hour rental prices going vertical and Tech valuations are broadly below their Covid and Deepseek lows. Some high quality secular growth names are at mid single digit multiples on real 27/28 numbers.
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Matheus Lonning
Matheus Lonning@mathlonning·
Remember when people were talking about just selling everything and staying in cash for the rest of the year in January because the month was so good? lol I was one of those people.
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Masa’s Son
Masa’s Son@masayoshisson·
zero humility and learning from 2022 just keeps lighting capital on fire how do you justify this @CathieDWood? I wonder what tgm/ coleman and laffont/ coatue are up to
Masa’s Son tweet mediaMasa’s Son tweet media
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Matheus Lonning
Matheus Lonning@mathlonning·
If $TSM cuts guidance we are so fucked
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Masa’s Son
Masa’s Son@masayoshisson·
@jukan05 totally in alignment there but, the voices get louder that said, fully appreciative of all your great work!
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Jukan
Jukan@jukan05·
@masayoshisson I don’t cherry-pick information. I try to read and consider everyone’s perspective.
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Masa’s Son
Masa’s Son@masayoshisson·
didn’t memory bros told us the most cyclical industry on earth was not going to be cyclical anymore? lol
Jukan@jukan05

Views on Memory Stock Price Decline [Samsung Securities Semiconductor, IT / Jong-wook Lee] As of 10:30 AM, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix shares are down 3.9% and 5.6%, respectively. 1. Spot Price Decline D5 16G spot prices peaked on March 19 and have since corrected over the past week, with the premium over contract prices narrowing from a 1Q average of 30% to roughly 20% recently. The equity market is concerned this may mark an inflection point signaling DRAM price declines. We believe the pace of DRAM price increases will begin to moderate from 3Q onward, and that early signs of this deceleration could trigger a share price correction around May–June. From this same perspective, the narrowing of spot price premiums appears to be interpreted as evidence of slowing DRAM price momentum. 2. Views on the Correction We believe this is a correction, not a peak-out. The market narrative will shift from the magnitude of DRAM price increases to the sustainability of DRAM prices. Because it is difficult to pinpoint the exact inflection between these two themes, we believe riding through this correction offers a more favorable risk-return profile. We see a high probability that DRAM profits will trace a broad plateau rather than the typical cyclical peak, as the supply-side response has lagged roughly one year behind compared to previous cycles. We believe this plateau-shaped earnings profile will instill greater confidence among investors in the sustainability of the cycle. 3. The Cycle We maintain that DRAM remains a cyclical industry. That said, we caution against selling on the vague fear that "it's cyclical, so it has to come down eventually." Cyclical peak-outs originate from changes in downstream industries. Therefore, early signs of a peak-out can be identified through business trajectory shifts at OpenAI, Anthropic, and the ISPs — and we believe there is still upside to be demonstrated from the demand side. Looking back at 2025, the equity market has wobbled every time spot prices stalled. While spot price declines can induce fear among investors, we do not believe they should be extrapolated as evidence of a cyclical peak-out. 4. Natural Gas Supply Issues Natural gas is a cost inflation issue, not a production disruption issue. In memory, cost is dominated by the variability of technology, yields, and capex — which has historically overwhelmed raw material cost fluctuations. Moreover, in a commodity industry, raw material supply disruptions cannot be viewed as purely negative. What matters is whether demand is strong enough to absorb cost pass-throughs. 5. Sentiment Examining the drivers behind the recent share price correction, this is a sentiment issue rather than a fundamental one — though sentiment itself is a meaningful factor in equity markets. Investors are feeling significant anxiety about sustainability following the sharp run-up in both DRAM prices and stock prices, and they want concrete evidence to alleviate that anxiety. If tangible evidence emerges regarding the direction from 3Q onward, we believe share prices can stabilize and begin to reflect earnings with greater confidence. Thank you. (Published 2026/3/30)

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