Jukan@jukan05
Views on Memory Stock Price Decline
[Samsung Securities Semiconductor, IT / Jong-wook Lee]
As of 10:30 AM, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix shares are down 3.9% and 5.6%, respectively.
1. Spot Price Decline
D5 16G spot prices peaked on March 19 and have since corrected over the past week, with the premium over contract prices narrowing from a 1Q average of 30% to roughly 20% recently. The equity market is concerned this may mark an inflection point signaling DRAM price declines.
We believe the pace of DRAM price increases will begin to moderate from 3Q onward, and that early signs of this deceleration could trigger a share price correction around May–June. From this same perspective, the narrowing of spot price premiums appears to be interpreted as evidence of slowing DRAM price momentum.
2. Views on the Correction
We believe this is a correction, not a peak-out. The market narrative will shift from the magnitude of DRAM price increases to the sustainability of DRAM prices. Because it is difficult to pinpoint the exact inflection between these two themes, we believe riding through this correction offers a more favorable risk-return profile.
We see a high probability that DRAM profits will trace a broad plateau rather than the typical cyclical peak, as the supply-side response has lagged roughly one year behind compared to previous cycles. We believe this plateau-shaped earnings profile will instill greater confidence among investors in the sustainability of the cycle.
3. The Cycle
We maintain that DRAM remains a cyclical industry. That said, we caution against selling on the vague fear that "it's cyclical, so it has to come down eventually."
Cyclical peak-outs originate from changes in downstream industries. Therefore, early signs of a peak-out can be identified through business trajectory shifts at OpenAI, Anthropic, and the ISPs — and we believe there is still upside to be demonstrated from the demand side.
Looking back at 2025, the equity market has wobbled every time spot prices stalled. While spot price declines can induce fear among investors, we do not believe they should be extrapolated as evidence of a cyclical peak-out.
4. Natural Gas Supply Issues
Natural gas is a cost inflation issue, not a production disruption issue. In memory, cost is dominated by the variability of technology, yields, and capex — which has historically overwhelmed raw material cost fluctuations. Moreover, in a commodity industry, raw material supply disruptions cannot be viewed as purely negative. What matters is whether demand is strong enough to absorb cost pass-throughs.
5. Sentiment
Examining the drivers behind the recent share price correction, this is a sentiment issue rather than a fundamental one — though sentiment itself is a meaningful factor in equity markets. Investors are feeling significant anxiety about sustainability following the sharp run-up in both DRAM prices and stock prices, and they want concrete evidence to alleviate that anxiety.
If tangible evidence emerges regarding the direction from 3Q onward, we believe share prices can stabilize and begin to reflect earnings with greater confidence.
Thank you.
(Published 2026/3/30)