

⚔️ Mojo.eth 🔴
16.9K posts

@mastermojo83
Father of Boys, Hobby Farmer, Swing trader/Investor in DEFI, @synthetix Advisory Seat, Governinggg, Hiker, Naturalist, @OptimismGrants, & OP Superchain Degen








Yesterday I talked about an overlooked way to play the @RobinhoodApp narrative. Today I'll cover the trade I think is being overhyped: @arbitrum. ethereum:0xb50721bcf8d664c30412cfbc6cf7a15145234ad1 is up ~25% since the announcement on the back of 8% of Robinhood Chain sequencer fees accruing to the Arbitrum DAO. Why I think the market is getting ahead of itself: -ARB is a poor beta for Robinhood Chain trade. We've already seen this with Base and OP. Base became one of crypto's biggest success stories, but that didn't translate into comparable returns for OP holders. -Current fees are inflated by memecoins. Robinhood Chain is processing ~7.6M daily transactions at an average fee of ~$0.015, generating ~$114K in daily fees. Much of that is driven by memecoin activity, which naturally pushes transaction fees higher through increased demand for blockspace and bot activity. -Fees should normalize. Before the recent memecoin surge, average transaction fees were closer to $0.003. As activity shifts toward tokenized equities and RWAs, I expect fees to trend back down. -Even an aggressive bull case isn't that meaningful. Assume Robinhood Chain reaches 100M daily transactions (roughly Base today) while fees normalize to $0.003. That generates about $300K of daily fees. -Only 8% flows to the DAO. That's roughly $8.8M annually, or less than 1% of ARB's FDV. -DAO revenue ≠ token value. The fees accrue to the DAO, not directly to ARB holders. Unless governance returns that value through buybacks or another value accrual mechanism, the impact on the token is limited. The Robinhood Chain thesis may ultimately play out, but it will take time. I think the market is pricing that upside into ARB far too quickly. Personally, I'd much rather own ethereum:0x643c4e15d7d62ad0abec4a9bd4b001aa3ef52d66 to express the thesis.


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