Matías

Qué poco cariño por Codelco…

The most important equation in statistics is the Normal Equations AᵀA x̂ = Aᵀb. It's the foundation of linear regression. Professor Gilbert Strang, MIT.

hay algo muy propio de los tiempos actuales en que un artista emergente defina su nueva canción como “Es como más punketa, más de calle” en una exclusiva a La Tercera

A los 16 mis ídolos eran Maradona, Mollo, Noel Gallagher o Palermo. Y mis amigos andaban más o menos en lo mismo. A ninguno de nosotros se nos hubiese ocurrido admirar a un trader o a un especulador inmobiliario. Pobre está generación enferma por la guita. Nunca serán felices.

Surprised no one in the RCT vs development macro wars has mentioned yet a critical paper for both literatures: the Bloom @bennpeifert Mahajan McKenzie Roberts QJE showing management matters for firm productivity

yo voy en trenes (no tengo donde ir)

In an excellent essay, @alexolegimas argued for the demand for humanness (the "relational sector") as what would protect jobs from AI. Today in Silicon Continent I answer with the supply side argument I develop in my forthcoming book "Messy Jobs". siliconcontinent.com/p/why-desk-job…

I’m really excited about this paper! Some of my work has pointed out problems in empirical work, but this one is all about new 🔧s. If you (or your referees) want to know about the mechanisms by which a treatment affects an outcome, you may be interested. A 🧵.

I like this graph. We should always show graphs like this when we estimate panel regressions

@pdvn @TomCast27757620 Realmente crees que Codelco es una prueba de “fracaso”?

@TomCast27757620 ¿Ahora te gustan las empresas estatales? Han fracasado siempre y Codelco es una prueba más de ello. Simplemente los incentivos están mal puestos, no funcionan. No es ideología, es pragmatismo.

Codelco tiene muchos problemas, pero, con esto, Chile iría un paso más allá que Pinochet en la dirección de un Estado eunuco de huevones y putas y una sociedad invertebrada esencialmente dirigida por el libre juego del mercado e intereses extranjeros. Las ideas de la libertad.

agora vamos resumir o CHILENÃO 👍🏻

Obviamente la banda sonora de la destrucción del fútbol la iba a poner coldplay

New essay on the economics of structural change and the post-commodity future of work. 1. Almost any question about the impact of advanced AI on the economy needs to start at the same place: what is still scarce? Answer that, and the analysis becomes pretty straightforward. This essay explores what becomes scarce if AI really can replicate most of what humans do in production, and what this mean for the future of jobs. 2. My conjecture, working through the economics: labor reallocates across sectors, and the sector it reallocates to has properties that keep labor a meaningful share of the economy. Ultimately this is about the structure of demand itself. For this, we have to go back to Girard, Augustine and Rousseau: once people's base needs are met, their preferences shift to comparative motives (e.g., status, exclusivity, social desirability). This motive is inherently non-satiated. 4. The key paper is Comin, Lashkari, and Mestieri (Econometrica 2021). As people get richer, they don't buy proportionally more of everything. They shift spending toward sectors with higher income elasticity. They estimate income effects account for 75%+ of observed structural change. 5. The ironic consequence: the sector that gets automated becomes a smaller share of the economy, not a larger one. Agriculture got massively more productive and its share of employment collapsed. Manufacturing too. The "stagnant" sectors absorb the spending and the jobs. 6. So the question is: which sectors have high income elasticity in a post-AGI world? I argue it's what I call the relational sector. Categories where the human isn't just an input into production, it is part of the value. 7. Why does the relational sector have high income elasticity? Because human desire has a mimetic, relational dimension. We don't just want things for their intrinsic properties. We want what others want, and we want it more when others can't have it. Girard, Rousseau, Augustine, and Hobbes all saw this. 8. In work with Kristóf Madarász, we showed this experimentally: WTP roughly doubles when a random subset of others is excluded from the good. And in new work with Graelin Mandel, AI involvement kills the premium. Human-made art gains 44% from exclusivity; AI-made art only 21%. 9. This all comes together for the core argument. The sector that absorbs spending as AI makes commodity production cheap is one where human provenance is part of the value, and demand for it grows faster than income. Exactly the profile that keeps labor meaningful. 10. To be clear about the claim: I'm NOT saying aggregate labor share must rise. It may fall. The claim is about sectoral composition, i.e., where expenditure and employment go once commodities get cheap, and the fact that the sector that will absorb reallocated labor maps to a substantial component of human preferences and desire. 11. If you're interested in the formal model, a linked companion technical note works out all the economics. Read the essay here: aleximas.substack.com/p/what-will-be…

@wsosaescudero lo otro: quizas el mejor momento vocal de Hetfield.

@wsosaescudero muy buen disco! no lo vivi en tiempo real, asi que nunca entendi el hate que se llevo. me parece una transicion natural e interesante desde el black album. st anger un desastre, eso si

30 años despues, Load (Metallica) pasa MUY bien el test del paso del tiempo. Tal vez tiene un toque de relleno, pero lo que esta bien, esta muy bien. Es un gran album, muy subvalorado por la gestapo del metal.

@afterrchabonn Rodando!

será El Regreso de Mao el mejor inédito de los redondos? pienso

Don Fernando Carvallo campeón como Jugador y como DT de la U.Católica , gran formador. Seleccionado Chileno y jugó en Europa (cuando había que ser bueno de verdad)

@nalbagli Molesta mucho la actitud y nerviosismo de varios jugadores contra un Boca que sacando a Paredes es bastante normalito

No tengo dudas que la plancha a Giani era roja. Pero eso no cambia mi análisis de la UC 11 contra 11. Y creo que no se compitió, fuimos superados siempre y nos vimos mal tanto en defensa como en ataque. Realmente preocupante pensando en partidos de visita. #LosCruzados

#LosCruzados Los niveles de corrupción de la @Libertadores @CONMEBOL es incluso a nivel de la producción de TV. Esta imagen hubo que recuperarla retrocediendo la transmisión, no la repitieron nunca, tampoco en el resumen de fouls. Era roja para Weigandt a los 5 min del inicio

@nalbagli De nuevo!! Una verguenza!

JI Díaz, el protegido de Twitter UC. Malo reculiao. #LosCruzados