Matt W
1.6K posts
Matt W
@mattrw25
Love photography, traveling, scuba diving, and everything Philly sports. New investor/swing trader; working my way to sustained profitability
Philadelphia, PA Katılım Ekim 2021
275 Takip Edilen370 Takipçiler
Shocked anyone who claims to understand Bitcoin doesn't understand that the US govt doesn't engage in commerce.
The US doesn't export any oil.
Private parties buy and sell oil futures. "Futures" means that the product will be delivered at a future date.
If there is a net outflow from the US borders, it's more like a coincidence.
It means that the buyers of Oil futures who took delivery happened to live outside of US borders, while the sellers of Oil futures happened to live inside the borders.
If there are lots of foreign buyers, they will bid up Oil prices.
It's called a free country and it's called free enterprise and it's called 5A and 14A.
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Why is the U.S. exporting record levels of oil if I’m still paying 50% more at the pumps?
Make it make sense.
Hedgeye@Hedgeye
🇺🇸 U.S. oil exports hit a record 6.4 million barrels per day
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@MannyAngel61761 @DowdEdward A high CPI is bearish. Higher inflation means more likelyhood of rate hikes which means stocks go down.
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@DowdEdward Ultra bullish . Economy is on fire . No wonder stocks are going up in straight line. Can't wait to see 5% june print .
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Our inflation model is predicting headline CPI will be 4.2% for April.
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@ItsaNewday2020 @MikeLevin It all goes to politicians pockets (on both sides) and the military
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@MikeLevin When you eliminate every American agency, where does that money go? Where do the new jobs come from when you eliminate all of them. How is even a single, non maga republican on board. This is total destruction of a country.
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Wildfire season is weeks away.
The West is in record drought.
And the Trump administration just announced it is shutting down 57 of the 77 Forest Service research stations that tell us how bad it is going to get and what to do about it.
We already know how this ends.
When Trump moved the Bureau of Land Management out of Washington in his first term, 87 percent of the staff quit rather than relocate. The same thing is happening here. Scientists are not going to uproot their families and abandon university partnerships. They are going to leave.
And when they leave, decades of data, research, and institutional knowledge walk out the door with them.
The Forest Service oversees 193 million acres. It lost nearly 6,000 employees to DOGE cuts in just the first half of last year. Now it is gutting the research operation that tells land managers what is actually happening to those forests in real time.
California alone is losing six research facilities, right before fire season.
There is no version of this that makes the forests safer, the science stronger, or the taxpayer better off.
nytimes.com/2026/04/03/cli…
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@sudelpool @Jane_Doe82 Ok, so what are we going to do when the massive wildfires hit? You do realize that the forest service was in charge of that, right? You’re about to lose 10,000 firefighters. Good luck.
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@Jane_Doe82 Because its federal dollars going to states for something that's a state responsibility.
Normally a functioning state government would step in today and have the State Forest Service take over those employees and responsibilities.
Normal "Federal Democracy stuff".
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Did you listen anon?
$AAOI and $AEHR both up 50%+ this week alone.
I post my thesis publicly BEFORE any movement happens and without charging thousands to see stock picks.
If you’re listening to $IREN investors why these are “short or going to dump because of 2025 P/E ratios” maybe stick to PayPal or $SPY.
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@RyanSawtelle @JDVance @kate_p45 @DrOzCMS @USAttyEssayli x.com/propublica/sta…
Then what about this guy
ProPublica@propublica
New: Trump pardoned nursing home owner Joseph Schwartz just 3 months into his sentence for a $39 million fraud scheme. Meanwhile, families who won multimillion-dollar wrongful death suits against Schwartz haven’t collected a cent. propub.li/4di7xXs
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Our task force isn’t wasting any time cracking down on fraud.
This morning in the LA area, federal law enforcement is taking down fraudsters who stole $50M+ from Americans by defrauding our healthcare and hospice systems.
Thanks to @DrOzCMS and @USAttyEssayli for their work.
F.A. United States Attorney Bill Essayli@USAttyEssayli
In coordination with the Task Force to Eliminate Fraud, federal law enforcement executed several arrests and search warrants in the Los Angeles area this morning targeting hospice and health care fraud. Operation Never Say Die involves 11 defendants who engaged in fraud totaling more than $50 million. Those arrested today will appear in federal court this afternoon. A press conference with more details is happening shortly.
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@JDVance @DrOzCMS @USAttyEssayli I’ve got some hospice fraud for you right here x.com/propublica/sta…
ProPublica@propublica
New: Trump pardoned nursing home owner Joseph Schwartz just 3 months into his sentence for a $39 million fraud scheme. Meanwhile, families who won multimillion-dollar wrongful death suits against Schwartz haven’t collected a cent. propub.li/4di7xXs
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@aleabitoreddit What is happening is that you have an administration that has been formed based on loyalty to the president, not qualifications. This is the result when you have podcasters and news hosts overseeing areas of the department of defense and military
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Turns out… we had no cards after all.
-> Indexes from $SPY are down -5%
-> Individual stocks from $HOOD and $RDDT are down worse 40%+
-> Rare earths supply chains needed for robotics or AI are a mess.
-> We’re fighting with our allies from Canada and Europe that supply us with all the important materials for frontier supply chains (hint: America has no domestic refineries for many of these)
-> Iran situation is now a mess
-> Main beneficiaries are Oil companies and War contractors
-> Russia is happy from Oil sanctions being lifted
-> Hyperscalers are pouring all their reserves into AI capex, with China reaping all the benefits from distillation. (No KYC endpoints)
-> Wealth gap keeps increasing, people living paycheck to paychecks, and mass layoffs are likely to happen as AI disrupts jobs.
Then as a side quest, people in the family are enriching themselves through memecoin launches then selling the industry out to big banks.
Can we at least secure our supply chains and frontier technologies first before we likely start a ground invasion of Iran?
I’ll always be bullish on America but these are some of these dumbest series of decisions I’ve seen.
WTF is even happening?
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@thesisklord @RepMikeLevin They emerged from bankruptcy in 2018 and completed two reactors in Georgia. Yeah, they messed up big time in South Carolina, but the company hasn’t gone anywhere
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@mattrw25 @RepMikeLevin The company that went bankrupt in 2017 and couldn’t build 2 reactors in South Carolina because the cost over runs were so bad? Ya they sound like they know what they are doing
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A three-year-old company operating out of a WeWork with reportedly fewer than five employees is being considered for up to $25 BILLION in nuclear energy funds from a trade deal Trump brokered with Japan.
The company has never built a nuclear plant or completed a nuclear project of any kind.
What does this company bring to the table? The father of its CEO donated $2 million+ to Trump and the GOP, and one of its advisors is a former RNC co-chair and Trump appointee.
In this Administration, that’s apparently all you need.
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@RepMikeLevin is anyone alive in America who has built a nuclear plant?
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@JonahLupton @GovPressOffice I don’t think it’s fraud, but more so the regulations and restrictions that add so much red tape to everything that any and all projects become a money sink
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@Merridew__ Pretty disappointed in them because they do provide some great research and theses on larger companies, only to turn around and pump otc micro caps
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@GlobalMktObserv The vertical axis is already logarithmic and it’s still accelerating upwards?! Christ
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🚨The surge in US public debt is MIND-BOGGLING:
US federal debt hit a record $38.9 TRILLION at the beginning of March.
Since the start of 2026, the debt is up $400 billion.
Since 2020, the debt pile has surged nearly $7 trillion and is on track to hit $40 trillion as early as this year.
This is beyond comprehension.
The financial system is broken, and taxpayers are left holding the bill.
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@aleabitoreddit If the war continues for another week it’s not out of the question to see oil reach those values, but I personally don’t see the conflict going on for much longer longer than that.
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you think i got good at trading by being a maga fucktard?
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hello to all my new followers. i'm gonna give it to you straight you're not gonna get any good financial advice from me. i am going to neoliberal pill you so hard that you will wish for the days of biden again. it's just libslop from here on out
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@realEstateTrent Remember that a significant number of comments are bots
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This is absolutely wild.
The fact that such a simple observation is seen as a political endorsement is wild to me beyond words.
Can’t even say THIS without people getting mad and taking sides?
This post was NOT about politics.
We’re so divided it’s sort of scary.
StripMallGuy@realEstateTrent
NYC roads getting cleared fast. Credit where credit is due.
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@aleabitoreddit What’s your average number of trades per day on that account?
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Year to Date: 412.72%
Lot of it is just picking the right sector, profiting off of Jane Street algos weekly, and a bit of luck.
In terms of bottleneck longs, these are currently my favorite:
1. Memory - Samsung, Sk Hynix, $SNDK, $MU, $SIMO
2. Photonics - $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $AXTI, (maybe Yamamura too, but not to the same degree).
3. Power/Grid - $XLU.
4. Advanced Packaging Capex - $AMKR, $ONTO, $CAMT, $KLIC, and $FORM.
I’ve talked about all of these before aside from maybe $KLIC?
But most if not all are up like 50-100%+ in a short timeframe, which amplifies overall returns from trading.
Best lesson I’ve learned this year was to rotate where the money flows and current bottlenecks. Rather than attempting contrarian turnaround plays in sectors like cybersecurity.
I publish all my ideas for free too so hopefully people can take away a thing or two!
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@aleabitoreddit FLKR is another option, with 20% weighting in Samsung and 20% in SK Hynix
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Trade idea that I published to my shower thoughts channel:
Korean Index volatility arbitrage and taking advantage of Black-Scholes models.
$EWY long options seem mispriced.
This is Blackrock's Korea Index, which is majority memory (Samsung Electronics, Sk Hynix).
The stock swings 2-5+% a day, and is up 136.25% 1Y, despite priced like a normal index IV.
Samsung is volatile. SK Hynix is volatile (eg. 65% - 80% est).
But the combination of the two through the index is priced way less than both low beta $GOOGL (37.33%) and $AMZN (39.12%) at ~32% IV.
I've been watching $EWY for a bit and it does look volatile.
As for pricing my guess is MMs priced in IV based on historical averages (5-10 years), where the Korean index was completely flat. And were expecting calls 2 years out to revert to the mean.
But this volatility should be the new norm as markets price in the new memory supercycle (eg. $TSM went from 30% IV to 46.2% IV).
Long calls should benefit from both Samsung + Sk Hynix carrying the index.
And the main benefit is vega expansion that you won't get from $KORU.
You also can't get this option MM pinning like individual US stocks since this is Korea's national index and long term.
TLDR: Individual components SK Hynix + Samsung are highly volatile.
They're basically half of the index, but options in index are priced with low volatility, perhaps due to historical 5-10 year data.
Long calls benefit from vega expansion that weren't priced in correctly as MM forward vol estimates are anchored too heavily on historical realized vol, which was low for $EWY over the past 5-10 years
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
These numbers are staggering: Samsung and SK Hynix are projected to become the most profitable companies in the world by 2027. Their projections exceed $APPL and $GOOGL, both ~$4T companies in operating profit. For reference, Samsung is valued at ~$820B and SK Hynix is valued at ~$410B. That would make a ~$410B company in SK Hynix more profitable than $GOOGL ($3.7T) in 2027. By Morgan Stanley estimates earlier, SK Hynix and Samsung are est. to bring in: ~$387.7 Billion USD combined operating income. America’s two most profitable companies $APPL and $GOOGL combined brought in $263 Billion USD for 2025. (Google $129-132B, Apple $133.1B) 2027 est. Samsung Electronics: ~$226.7 Billion Sk Hynix: ~$161.0 Billion 2027 est: Apple: ~$156B-$165B Google: ~$168B-178B The statistics of smaller Korean equities exceeding multi trillion dollar US hyperscalers in profitability is staggering. It’s a genuinely interesting point, that a $410B company exceeds $4T+ hyperscalers in profitability. But the bigger question markets are pricing in is if the memory shortage is ephemeral, or if they become a necessary “Oil” like GPUs for the AI buildout. If your answer to that is “likely, might be good to get exposure to Korean, Japanese, or Taiwanese equities.
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So besides $AMZN, what is starting to look like a no brainer at these levels?
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@MikeSki02922871 @ChrisGloninger Your electricity tripled because of the AI data centers being build up everywhere
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@ChrisGloninger If coal is so much more expensive than wind and solar, why did my electric triple once my state mandated the electric company switch to wind and solar?
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Atmospheric scientist here. Let me tell you what was actually "slashed" today.
Slashed: The Endangerment Finding — a 200-page scientific review upheld by the Supreme Court, the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals, and reaffirmed by the National Academies of Sciences in 2025.
Slashed: The legal authority to regulate carbon from cars, power plants, and factories. All of it. Gone in one afternoon.
Now here's what you're "saving":
Yesterday Trump ordered the Pentagon — the largest energy consumer on Earth — to buy coal electricity.
Coal costs $69–$169/MWh.
Wind costs $27–$53/MWh.
Solar costs $38–$78/MWh.
99% of U.S. coal plants cost more to run than replacing them with brand-new solar or wind.
That's your tax dollars buying the most expensive electricity on the market. By executive order. While the Peabody Energy CEO stood in the room.
And the human cost of what you're "saving"?
460,000 American deaths linked to coal pollution in 20 years. Coal PM2.5 is 2.1x deadlier than other air pollution. (Henneman et al., Science, 2023)
All to protect an industry that employs 44,000 people total. Clean energy employs 3.5 million.
The White House@WhiteHouse
Promises Made, Promises Kept: Slashing regulations and saving Americans trillions. 🇺🇸
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