Matthew Smith

Didn't end up using this chart for our article in the end, but I like it so here it is - YouGov's 'best Prime Minister' tracker since 2005 yougov.co.uk/politics/artic…

This week’s YouGov / Sky News / Times voting intention poll has the following headline results: RefUK 25%(+2), GRN 19% (nc). CON 17% (-2), LAB 17% (nc), LDEM 14% (nc), The poll was taken on Sunday 15 March and Monday 16 March, with a sample of 2,329 respondents from YouGov’s online panel. This is the first poll since Nigel Farage and Reform UK publicly challenged YouGov’s approach and the pollster agreed to supply more underlying data about each poll. How YouGov carries out voting intention polls. During the last election campaign in 2024, YouGov changed how it conducts its weekly voting intention polls in an attempt to pick up tactical voting that has become an increasing feature of UK elections in recent years. They have continued to use this methodology since the election. Unlike other pollsters, YouGov’s methodology involves asking their online panel two voting intention questions: first, how they would vote if a general election were held tomorrow and - second - how they would vote in a general election if they were thinking specifically about their own constituency. The results are then put through an MRP model - or to give it its full name, a “multi-level regression and post-stratification” model to turn their raw data into headline voting intention - the figures that Sky News reports each week. YouGov uses these two techniques - a pair of voting intention questions and then putting the results through an MRP model - because they believe this allows them to get the closest to the result of an election held tomorrow. There appear to be significant differences between pollsters in their respective treatment of Reform UK: there are a lot of irregular voters currently telling pollsters they will go out and vote for Nigel Farage’s party in an election tomorrow, and different companies take a different view on how likely this would be to happen in practice. Why Reform UK dispute the methodology In recent months, YouGov has reported lower polling shares for Reform UK than other firms, although other pollsters also reported a decline from their peak, and Nigel Farage’s party has now challenged the pollster’s methodology. They say they believe that the first voting intention question - that makes no reference to constituencies - is a better representation of what is happening in the country, as well as questioning the use of the YouGov MRP model. They point to the pollster Peter Kellner, a one time employee of YouGov, who said that use of a second voting intention question about how a respondent would vote if thinking about their constituency would advantage the Lib Dems over Reform UK. From this week, following the Reform UK challenge, YouGov has agreed to publish the results to the question without the constituency prompt, as well as the one with the prompt which was already automatically part of the data. Nigel Farage is claiming this as a victory for transparency. YouGov’s methodology, however, has not changed and they stand by their approach. So here are YouGov’s raw voting intention numbers this week without a constituency prompt, and before YouGov apply the MRP model: Reform UK 19% Green 16% Conservative 11% Labour 11% Lib Dems 7% SNP 2% Plaid 1% Other 4% Would not vote 10% Don’t know 15% Refused to say 3% These are the numbers that Reform UK say are the “real” figures which each week they are likely to highlight. Note the figure here for Reform UK is the same this week when the question is asked both with and without the constituency prompt - 19%. Who is right? All pollsters use modelling and a range of techniques to generate the headline voting intention they believe best reflects reality. Ultimately, these results can only be tested at a general election, and at these moments, polling companies are judged by clients and shareholders. This wait can be frustrating for political parties, since in between elections polls drive momentum and, at worst, can be used to justify a change of leader. However at the last election, the final YouGov MRP poll put Reform UK on 15%, the exact number they received at the ballot box, and the final MRP was the most accurate by seats of any pollster, with 92% of constituencies called correctly.

A universal truth: most radar charts should just be bar charts. Love your stuff, Anthropic!

...and secondly because this leads to misleading reporting whereby outlets quietly don't mention or gloss over the fact that this is a global figure, and the articles read as though its referring to UK or US opinion only

One thing I really don't like pollsters doing is outputting figures from a multi-country study as a "X% of people globally think Y". Firstly because this number can differ dramatically based on the composition of countries included in the study...

@DAaronovitch @YouGov There was a 2014 survey that was conducted slightly differently (asked respondents to choose bucketed categories, rather than write down a single number of books), but here's what the harmonised results look like

@YouGov Do we have comparable survey figures from the past?

As schools across the country celebrate World Book Day, our study last year found that 40% of Britons hadn't read a single book in the past 12 months - the median Briton had read 3 books in the preceding year

Nigel Farage has criticised the government for not allowing the US to use RAF airbases to launch strikes against Iran - but most Britons (58%) backed this decision; Reform voters were closely split

With Donald Trump's u-turn on the Chagos Islands deal reportedly because Keir Starmer refused the US permission to launch Iran strikes from RAF airbases in the UK, today's poll finds 58% of Britons back the PM's call Results link in replies

It seems some Trump voters may have developed amnesia. In our polling, we can compare who respondents said they voted for in 2024 right after the election to what they claim now. 98% of Trump voters who still approve of the president recall their vote correctly. But for the roughly 15% unhappy with his performance? Almost 1 in 4 now deny voting for him. 13% even say they voted for Kamala Harris while 12% say they didn’t vote at all. New from @lxeagle17 at @TheArgumentMag: theargumentmag.com/p/the-trump-vo…

Important related data: Only 11% of Britons correctly stated the price of a Freddo in our 2018 study

44% of Britons say some or all student debt should be forgiven (41% disagree) Of those who want debt forgiveness... -36% forgive all -35% forgive some, so they pay less than original loan -25% forgive large debt increases caused by interest rates yougov.co.uk/society/articl…

@JohnRentoul You need to bring in the pros m.youtube.com/watch?v=WgQI65…

I had fun with those #Top10s independent.co.uk/voices/comment…

@tubemapper This is the most important question, thank you for answering it

So the answer to the most important question is yes, you can still pretend to drive the DLR. However it's a little taller than the previous model so some kids may need a lap for a boost!

In a commitment to the bit that will go completely unappreciated, I waited 2 weeks to post these survey results on procrastinating…

Britons are divided on ending the granting of indefinite leave to remain, while a majority oppose removing it from those who already have it End the granting of ILR Support: 44% Oppose: 43% Removing ILR from those who have it Support: 29% Oppose: 58% Link in following tweets

@dhmontgomery Why does nature hate ants so much?

TIRED: Carcinzation WIRED: Vermilinguation

Sympathetic as I am to the broader point here, to choose at age 25 to rent for £1,900 a month in Zone 2 is fucking mental

YouGov's first MRP since the 2024 election shows a hung parliament with Reform UK as the largest party and the Tories pushed into fourth place Reform UK: 271 (+266 from 2024) Labour: 178 (-233) Lib Dems: 81 (+9) Conservatives: 46 (-75) SNP: 38 (+29) Greens: 7 (+3) Plaid: 7 (+3) Others: 3 (-2)

Measuring the Mandela effect in the UK: 49% of Brits recall Colin Firth's Mr Darcy emerging wet-shirted from a lake, even though it never happened, and 38% remember Walkers Salt and Vinegar crisps coming in a blue packet, which they never did For other 'Mandela effect' false memories Britons have, see below 👇