Matt Vatcher

Me: “I’m from Jacksonville” Everybody’s brain- Don't say it Don't say it Don't say it Don't say it Don't say it Don't say it Don't say it Don't say it Don't say it Don't say it Don't say it Don't say it Them - “Jacksonville, Florida?”

A losing presidential candidate calling for the end of the constitutional process for selecting a President feels awfully fascisty

Get Xabi before it’s too late @LFC. This will be franchise altering

@wholemars It’s priced in. Are you saying a $1.7T market cap is the right price for just auto sales?

Yes, the Robotaxi opportunity is not even priced in yet. The market is still treating Optimus like it’s not a real product.

EASTERN CONFERENCE FINAL BOUND 😤

@LFC He’s gotta go. Xabi is waiting. Move on, it’s the right move

Read a full transcript from Arne Slot's press conference following our 1-1 draw with Chelsea:

@SportsCenter @PKSubban1 🤡

"I would like to say I'm impressed, but nothing really impressed me. It was a lot of the normal that you see from Carolina at home." @PKSubban1 on the Carolina Hurricanes' steady dominance against the Flyers in Game 1 🏒

A dominant home dub for Carolina to kick off the second round of the Stanley Cup playoffs 😤

@SawyerMerritt @sporadica Just went to Austin for the first time since they introduced it. 0-3 on my rides for unsupervised. It can’t go on highways either apparently. The drop off locations are awful, dropped us a 7 minute walk away. It’s not very close

@sporadica You can in Texas: x.com/SawyerMerritt/…

not hating, just actually wondering - can i take a Robotaxi without some random dude in the front seat yet? bc i'll keep choosing Waymo until that changes, personally

@wholemars Landed in Austin yesterday and have been so excited to try robotaxi. 1. Not allowed to be picked up at the airport. So skipped that one. Next ride, was robotaxi but with a monitor. Car dropped us off 7 min walk away from destination. It’s far away from greatness

Many $TSLA bulls are so blinded by the stock price that they're missing Tesla go through a transformation that we've been waiting years for. They are starting to put driverless fucking Robotaxis on the road. They are giving paid driverless rides to the public in 3 cities now. How many years have we been talking about this moment? And now it's real. We're watching it unfold. And yet everyone is still shitting on them, even after they've done the impossible. "But we need more Robotaxis!" Yes... the first step to having more Robotaxis is to start with some Robotaxis. You think you want them to deploy aggressively to make the stock go up. But if they go too fast and make a mistake, your stock isn't going anywhere. Ever. They have adopted a rollout strategy that is designed to maximize the value of the company that you own a piece of. I have seen many of these moments over the years where the stock goes down and you have all these frustrated investors saying everything think think should have done better. It's always very dramatic, but Tesla has survived through each period. The critics get mad at me a lot when I tell them things are going to be okay. They say "I have a right to criticize!". And of course you do. No one is stopping you. Tesla is one of the most heavily criticized companies in the world. The amount of good they do compared to how much they're criticized is pretty insane honestly. But what I see is a lot of people who are emotional about the stock who have just become extremely bearish despite some of the most bullish events in the company's history. The auto business is stabilizing, FSD Supervised adoption is taking off, and driverless Robotaxis are on the fucking road. Has everything gone perfectly? Of course not. But the issues you're fixating on are small potatoes compared to the magnitude of what's happening here.

CAROLINA IS MOVING ON TO THE SECOND ROUND‼️

Seems low

MAKE IT THREE

@Everman @robotaxi Then when v15 comes out it won’t make sense to mass release because v16 will be safer. And so on and so on

Worst case confirmed. No robotaxi earnings growth until next year leaves the stock weak through 2027. SpaceX buying a cheap $TSLA now the most likely scenario. Max dilution for retail. Slow rolling @robotaxi ramp until v15 is the last nail in the coffin. 💀

@farzyness Everything realistically pushed 2 years out is what I heard

My thoughts on Tesla’s Q1 2026 earnings: It’s become clear that 2026 will not be the breakthrough year that Tesla investors would’ve hoped - at least from an earnings perspective. There’s been a softening of language on the biggest levers that Tesla will pull to materially increase its valuation. Robotaxi scale was softened to “depends on what you mean by scale”. Optimus in any meaningful volume is not happening until 2027 due to the time it takes to revamp the Fremont line (understandable). The showcase of the Bot is being reserved until summer of this year - which could get pushed out again. On the positive end, demand for Tesla vehicles appears to be increasing, and adoption of FSD is accelerating. This can be seen in the auto margins, which allowed Tesla to have one of their best in a while in a seasonally depressed quarter. What we should see is as Tesla’s production re-accelerates, the cost per unit of production will come down, while the net price per vehicle will go up as more and more people purchase FSD subscriptions. This means that margins on the auto business should continue to rise. This should give Tesla the best large-scale auto margins in the world into 2027. This should materially increase again when Tesla releases Unsupervised FSD for the HW4 fleet, which my guess is will come at a premium. I find it hard to see Tesla charging $99 a month for a personal chauffeur where you no longer have to pay attention. The premium on that is far greater. Imagine being able to do whatever you want in your car while it takes you to point A to point B. Big deal! Another positive (depending how you look at it) is that there’s maximum clarity on HW3 vehicles not achieving Unsupervised, and Tesla will a) offer a discounted trade-in rate on HW3 vehicles that purchased FSD outright and b) will work to upgrade the vehicles to HW4 so that they can be Unsupervised. This is because a car that is a Robotaxi is worth FAR MORE than one that isn’t, and even if the cost to retrofit a HW3 car was $10k+ or more, Tesla would make the money back (and then some) in fares. Basically a no brainer, if the path for an upgrade actually exists, which now we’ve gotten confirmation that there is. In the next 12 months, I think Tesla’s biggest catalyst (by far) is the adoption of FSD on a growing fleet of vehicles that will eventually go unsupervised, which will give Tesla recurring revenue at 80%+ margin on a fleet of vehicles that will continue to grow over time, and as regulations allow it. If you fast forward to the end of 2027, Tesla should be able to have over 5 million cars generating at least $99 per month in recurring monthly revenue, almost all of which drops down to the bottom line, because the cost of the hardware and compute is already baked into the business. That’s roughly $6 billion in net income per year added to the bottom line, and growing. That’s ~166 P/E at a $1T valuation on growing software revenue AND margins. To me, that seems pretty fair. Honestly, might even be undervalued. Just look at Palantir. This is while the company needs to invest heavily on CAPEX for Optimus, Cybercab, and Terafab, all of which are extremely important for the company’s long-term trajectory. The question now becomes how fast can Tesla materially increase FSD revenue at 80%+ while it waits to ramp Robotaxi & Optimus. Overall, IMO, very good quarter for the long term prospects. The acceleration in FSD adoption is a big signal that says Tesla is capable of capitalizing on recurring revenue, and as the software gets to unsupervised, it should increase materially in the coming quarters. But as far as the next 12 months go, it continues to be a waiting game on the biggest levers for Tesla. NFA. $TSLA

@wholemars @elonmusk We all knew it before he would admit, so it’s not surprising

"Hardware 3 will not achieve unsupervised. Customers will be given the option to get a discounted trade in on a new car, or get their computer and cameras upgraded" — @elonmusk

RIP HW3 Teslas

WORTH THE WAIT 👏

TKACHUK VS STAAL OFF THE OPENING FACEOFF TO START THE STANLEY CUP PLAYOFFS!!! 🥊 BEST PLAYOFFS IN SPORTS!!!! 🔥🔥🔥