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VisualSKI - USERX and XGD.AX SKI charts bmgoldtechanalysis.blogspot.com/2025/03/visual… USERX, $14.84, +0.95% The 92-96 index has generated a true bull buy signal. To sell tomorrow, the price would need to drop to $13.76 or lower (-7.28%), which seems unlikely. The structure of this signal is proper for a true bull market, though it does not guarantee one. The current run pattern is 1 down, 6 up (+2.15%/day). When this upward run is interrupted by a first down day, that day is likely to mark a top. This aligns with historical patterns, where 92-96 true bull signals preceded by a 16-20 sell signal typically mark the start of a drawdown. If this bull market is successful, the drawdown rule applies: The bigger the drawdown, the stronger the bull market. The decline should at least hit/touch the 16-20 index support over several weeks. The most bullish scenario would be a 35-39 sell signal, followed by a 35-39 buy signal, marking the start of the SKI express train. How We Got Here The October 2023 bottom was marked by an 881-885 buy signal, followed by a classic SKI sequence: 1. 16-20 true buy 2. 35-39 XXed buy 3. 92-96 XXed buy, marking the top The subsequent correction stopped short of selling the 92-96 index by a single day. On that precise day, it became clear that the market was behaving like a true bull market, so I went all in, expecting a push toward $10.28 (2016 top). That’s exactly what happened, and on the day when $10.28 was broken, the long-term indexes (218-222 and 439-443) bought, generating a strong long-term double buy signal. Propelled by these signals, the price surged for months, eventually breaking the resistance line from the 2020 top (around $12) before peaking in October 2024. The October 2024 top was marked by a 3 down, 9 up run pattern (+1.26%/day), with a peak price of $14.85. From the 92-96 buy signal up to this top, I managed my exposure between 25% and 100%, staying mostly around 75%. At the top, I reduced to 25%, expecting a correction that would sell and rebuy the 35-39. Instead, it went further and sold the 92-96, ending the bull signal. The 92-96 sell missed the bottom by one day. Also, there was a key detail: The bottom was marked by a 3 up, 6 down run pattern, where the down days averaged more than 2%, a classic "life run" pattern, which suggests very long-term bullish implications. Since then, the price has risen and produced several false 92-96 buy and sell signals, as I noted at the time. Current Structure and Concerns The Elliott Wave structure since the bottom suggests we are in a wave 3 of a 1-2-3-4-5 bullish wave. A concern is that the 92-96 true bull buy is being generated exactly at the 2024 top of $14.85, just as gold reaches the $3,000 milestone. The run pattern is pointing to some kind of a top here. I’d be less unhappy if the run continues beyond the previous top before turning down. Summary An important and potentially very bullish 92-96 buy signal has been generated. Long-term buy signals remain intact (218-222 and 439-443), including the potential "life run" low from just three months ago. A drawdown is expected because, in nearly all similar past situations, a drawdown followed except for one case. Let’s see what happens next. XGD.AX, $10687, +0.95% The overall setup remains unchanged. The $10,699 target has been reached (100% Fibonacci extension). The next target is $11,449, established by the July 2024 breakout. Once again, the session closed at an all-time high. A 16-20 index sell signal has been executed, and the 100% Fibonacci extension has been met. If today the XGD closes down despite the AUD price of gold being up 1.47% and closing at an all-time high, we may have reached the top. The 92-96 true bull signal is not at risk of selling soon. I am 60% long and looking to add on weakness. #USERX #GOLD #SILVER #GoldStocks #AussieGoldStocks

@mcm_ct Seems we have Bull & Bear traps happening